DONEGAL GROUP INC – 10-Q – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
We recommend that you read the following information in conjunction with the
historical financial information and the footnotes to that financial information
we include in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. We also recommend you read
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of
Operations in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
2021
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
We combine our financial statements with those of our insurance subsidiaries and
present our financial statements on a consolidated basis in accordance with
GAAP.
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Our insurance subsidiaries make estimates and assumptions that can have a
significant effect on amounts and disclosures we report in our financial
statements. The most significant estimates relate to the liabilities of our
insurance subsidiaries for property and casualty insurance losses and loss
expenses. While we believe our estimates and the estimates of our insurance
subsidiaries are appropriate, the ultimate amounts of these liabilities may
differ from the estimates we provided. We regularly review our methods for
making these estimates and we reflect any adjustment we consider necessary in
our current consolidated results of operations.
Liabilities for Losses and Loss Expenses
Liabilities for losses and loss expenses are estimates at a given point in time
of the amounts an insurer expects to pay with respect to incurred policyholder
claims based on facts and circumstances the insurer knows at that point in time.
For example, legislative, judicial and regulatory actions may expand coverage
definitions, retroactively mandate coverage or otherwise require our insurance
subsidiaries to pay losses for damages that their policies explicitly excluded
or did not intend to cover. At the time of establishing its estimates, an
insurer recognizes that its ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses will
exceed or be less than such estimates. Our insurance subsidiaries base their
estimates of liabilities for losses and loss expenses on assumptions as to
future loss trends, expected claims severity, judicial theories of liability and
other factors. However, during the loss adjustment period, our insurance
subsidiaries may learn additional facts regarding individual claims, and,
consequently, it often becomes necessary for our insurance subsidiaries to
refine and adjust their estimates for these liabilities. We reflect any
adjustments to the liabilities for losses and loss expenses of our insurance
subsidiaries in our consolidated results of operations in the period in which
our insurance subsidiaries make adjustments to their estimates.
Our insurance subsidiaries maintain liabilities for the payment of losses and
loss expenses with respect to both reported and unreported claims. Our insurance
subsidiaries establish these liabilities for the purpose of covering the
ultimate costs of settling all losses, including investigation and litigation
costs. Our insurance subsidiaries base the amount of their liability for
reported losses primarily upon a case-by-case evaluation of the type of risk
involved, knowledge of the circumstances surrounding each claim and the
insurance policy provisions relating to the type of loss the policyholder
incurred. Our insurance subsidiaries determine the amount of their liability for
unreported claims and loss expenses on the basis of historical information by
line of insurance. Our insurance subsidiaries account for inflation in the
reserving function through analysis of costs and trends and reviews of
historical reserving results. Our insurance subsidiaries monitor their
liabilities closely and recompute them periodically using new information on
reported claims and a variety of statistical techniques. Our insurance
subsidiaries do not discount their liabilities for losses and loss expenses.
Reserve estimates can change over time because of unexpected changes in
assumptions related to our insurance subsidiaries' external environment and, to
a lesser extent, assumptions related to our insurance subsidiaries' internal
operations. For example, our insurance subsidiaries have experienced an increase
in claims severity and a lengthening of the claim settlement periods on bodily
injury claims during the past several years. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic
and related government mandates and restrictions resulted in various changes
from historical claims reporting and settlement trends during 2020 and resulted
in significant increases in loss costs in 2021 and 2022 due to a number of
factors, including supply chain disruption, higher used automobile values,
increases in the cost of replacement automobile parts and rising labor rates.
These trend changes give rise to greater uncertainty as to the pattern of future
loss settlements. Related uncertainties regarding future trends include social
inflation, availability and cost of building materials, availability of skilled
labor, the rate of plaintiff attorney involvement in claims and the cost of
medical technologies and procedures. Assumptions related to our insurance
subsidiaries' external environment include the absence of significant changes in
tort law and the legal environment that increase liability exposure, consistency
in judicial interpretations of insurance coverage and policy provisions and the
rate of loss cost inflation. Internal assumptions include consistency in the
recording of premium and loss statistics, consistency in the recording of
claims, payment and case reserving methodology, accurate measurement of the
impact of rate changes and changes in policy provisions, consistency in the
quality and characteristics of business written within a given line of business
and consistency in reinsurance coverage and collectability of reinsured losses,
among other items. To the extent our insurance subsidiaries determine that
underlying factors impacting their assumptions have changed, our insurance
subsidiaries make adjustments in their reserves that they consider appropriate
for such changes. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries' ultimate liability
for unpaid losses and loss expenses will likely differ from the amount recorded
at
loss expense reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable, the effect on our pre-tax
results of operations would be approximately
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The establishment of appropriate liabilities is an inherently uncertain process
and we can provide no assurance that our insurance subsidiaries' ultimate
liability will not exceed our insurance subsidiaries' loss and loss expense
reserves and have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial
condition. Furthermore, we cannot predict the timing, frequency and extent of
adjustments to our insurance subsidiaries' estimated future liabilities, because
the historical conditions and events that serve as a basis for our insurance
subsidiaries' estimates of ultimate claim costs may change. As is the case for
substantially all property and casualty insurance companies, our insurance
subsidiaries have found it necessary in the past to increase their estimated
future liabilities for losses and loss expenses in certain periods and, in other
periods, their estimated future liabilities for losses and loss expenses have
exceeded their actual liabilities for losses and loss expenses. Changes in our
insurance subsidiaries' estimates of their liability for losses and loss
expenses generally reflect actual payments and their evaluation of information
received subsequent to the prior reporting period.
Excluding the impact of severe weather events and the COVID-19 pandemic, our
insurance subsidiaries have noted stable amounts in the number of claims
incurred and the number of claims outstanding at period ends relative to their
premium base in recent years across most of their lines of business. However,
the amount of the average claim outstanding has increased gradually over the
past several years due to various factors such as rising inflation and increased
litigation trends. We have also experienced a general slowing of settlement
rates in litigated claims and lengthening of repair completion times for
property and automobile claims. Our insurance subsidiaries could have to make
further adjustments to their estimates in the future. However, on the basis of
our insurance subsidiaries' internal procedures, which analyze, among other
things, their prior assumptions, their experience with similar cases and
historical trends such as reserving patterns, loss payments, pending levels of
unpaid claims and product mix, as well as court decisions, economic conditions
and public attitudes, we believe that our insurance subsidiaries have made
adequate provision for their liability for losses and loss expenses.
Atlantic States' participation in the pool with Donegal Mutual exposes Atlantic
States to adverse loss development on the business of Donegal Mutual that the
pool includes. However, pooled business represents the predominant percentage of
the net underwriting activity of both companies, and Donegal Mutual and Atlantic
States share proportionately any adverse risk development relating to the pooled
business. The business in the pool is homogeneous and each company has a
pro-rata share of the entire pool. Since the predominant percentage of the
business of Atlantic States and Donegal Mutual is pooled and the results shared
by each company according to its participation level under the terms of the
pooling agreement, the intent of the underwriting pool is to produce a more
uniform and stable underwriting result from year to year for each company than
either would experience individually and to spread the risk of loss between the
companies.
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Our insurance subsidiaries' liabilities for losses and loss expenses by major line of business atMarch 31, 2022 andDecember 31, 2021 consisted of the following: March 31, December 31, 2022 2021 (in thousands) Commercial lines: Automobile$ 172,242 $ 172,302 Workers' compensation 122,025 122,398 Commercial multi-peril 169,743 168,445 Other 21,705 18,530 Total commercial lines 485,715 481,675 Personal lines: Automobile 107,595 109,915 Homeowners 27,741 26,169 Other 6,810 8,600 Total personal lines 142,146 144,684 Total commercial and personal lines 627,861 626,359 Plus reinsurance recoverable 443,726 451,261
Total liabilities for losses and loss expenses
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We have evaluated the effect on our insurance subsidiaries' loss and loss
expense reserves and our stockholders' equity in the event of reasonably likely
changes in the variables we consider in establishing the loss and loss expense
reserves of our insurance subsidiaries. We established the range of reasonably
likely changes based on a review of changes in accident-year development by line
of business and applied those changes to our insurance subsidiaries' loss and
loss expense reserves as a whole. The range we selected does not necessarily
indicate what could be the potential best or worst case or the most likely
scenario. The following table sets forth the estimated effect on our insurance
subsidiaries' loss and loss expense reserves and our stockholders' equity in the
event of reasonably likely changes in the variables we considered in
establishing the loss and loss expense reserves of our insurance subsidiaries:
Adjusted Loss Adjusted Loss
and Loss Percentage and Loss Percentage
Expense Change in Expense Change in
Reserves Net Stockholders' Reserves Net Stockholders'
Percentage Change in Loss of Reinsurance Equity at of Reinsurance Equity at
and Loss Expense Reserves at March 31, at December December 31,
Net of Reinsurance March 31, 2022 2022(1) 31, 2021 2021(1)
(dollars in thousands)
(10.0)% $565,075 9.5% $563,723 9.3%
(7.5) 580,771 7.1 579,382 7.0
(5.0) 596,468 4.7 595,041 4.7
(2.5) 612,164 2.4 610,700 2.3
Base 627,861 - 626,359 -
2.5 643,558 (2.4) 642,018 (2.3)
5.0 659,254 (4.7) 657,677 (4.7)
7.5 674,951 (7.1) 673,336 (7.0)
10.0 690,647 (9.5) 688,995 (9.3)
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(1) Net of income tax effect. Non-GAAP Information
We prepare our consolidated financial statements on the basis of GAAP. Our
insurance subsidiaries also prepare financial statements based on statutory
accounting principles state insurance regulators prescribe or permit ("SAP").
SAP financial measures are considered non-GAAP financial measures under
applicable
certain items that the most comparable GAAP financial measures do not ordinarily
include or exclude. Our calculation of non-GAAP financial measures may differ
from similar measures other companies use, so investors should exercise caution
when comparing our non-GAAP financial measures to the non-GAAP financial
measures other companies use.
Because our insurance subsidiaries do not prepare GAAP financial statements, we
evaluate the performance of our personal lines and commercial lines segments
utilizing SAP financial measures that reflect the growth trends and underwriting
results of our insurance subsidiaries. The SAP financial measures we utilize are
net premiums written and statutory combined ratio.
Net Premiums Written
We define net premiums written as the amount of full-term premiums our insurance
subsidiaries record for policies effective within a given period less premiums
our insurance subsidiaries cede to reinsurers. Net premiums earned is the most
comparable GAAP financial measure to net premiums written. Net premiums earned
represent the sum of the amount of net premiums written and the change in net
unearned premiums during a given period. Our insurance subsidiaries earn
premiums and recognize them as revenue over the terms of their policies, which
are one year or less in duration. Therefore, increases or decreases in net
premiums earned generally reflect increases or decreases in net premiums written
in the preceding 12-month period compared to the comparable period one year
earlier.
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The following table provides a reconciliation of our net premiums earned to our
net premiums written for the three months ended
Three Months Ended March 31,
2022 2021
(in thousands)
Net premiums earned $ 199,249 $ 187,252
Change in net unearned premiums 19,193 28,610
Net premiums written $ 218,442 $ 215,862
Statutory Combined Ratio
The combined ratio is a standard measurement of underwriting profitability for
an insurance company. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, net
investment gains or losses, federal income taxes or other non-operating income
or expense. A combined ratio of less than 100% generally indicates underwriting
profitability.
The statutory combined ratio is a non-GAAP financial measure that is based upon
amounts determined under SAP. We calculate our statutory combined ratio as the
sum of:
• the statutory loss ratio, which is the ratio of calendar-year net incurred
losses and loss expenses, excluding anticipated salvage and subrogation
recoveries, to net premiums earned;
• the statutory expense ratio, which is the ratio of expenses incurred for net
commissions, premium taxes and underwriting expenses to net premiums written;
and
• the statutory dividend ratio, which is the ratio of dividends to holders of
workers' compensation policies to net premiums earned.
The calculation of our statutory combined ratio differs from the calculation of
our GAAP combined ratio. In calculating our GAAP combined ratio, we do not
deduct installment payment fees from incurred expenses, and we base the expense
ratio on net premiums earned instead of net premiums written. Differences
between our GAAP loss ratio and our statutory loss ratio result from
anticipating salvage and subrogation recoveries for our GAAP loss ratio but not
for our statutory loss ratio.
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Combined Ratios
The following table presents comparative details with respect to our GAAP and
statutory combined ratios for the three months ended
Three Months Ended March 31,
2022 2021
GAAP Combined Ratios (Total Lines)
Loss ratio (non-weather) 55.2 % 60.0 %
Loss ratio (weather-related) 4.0 3.7
Expense ratio 35.8 34.1
Dividend ratio 0.8 0.7
Combined ratio 95.8 % 98.5 %
Statutory Combined Ratios
Commercial lines:
Automobile 89.1 % 102.3 %
Workers' compensation 97.0 95.4
Commercial multi-peril 99.7 107.7
Other 72.4 60.1
Total commercial lines 93.5 99.3
Personal lines:
Automobile 93.5 93.4
Homeowners 108.0 94.7
Other 43.8 76.9
Total personal lines 94.8 92.6
Total commercial and personal lines 94.1 96.5
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Results of Operations - Three Months Ended
Months Ended
Net Premiums Earned. Our insurance subsidiaries' net premiums earned for the
first three months of 2022 were
6.4 %, compared to
reflecting the inclusion of the business of the
in the underwriting pool beginning with policies effective in 2021, as well as
solid premium retention and renewal premium increases.
Net Premiums Written. Our insurance subsidiaries' net premiums written for the
three months ended
million
three months of 2021. Commercial lines net premiums written increased
million
months of 2021. We attribute the increase in commercial lines net premiums
written primarily to modest new business growth, solid premium retention and
renewal premium increases. Personal lines net premiums written increased
slightly for the first three months of 2022 compared to the first three months
of 2021.
Investment Income. Our net investment income was
three months of 2022, compared to
2021. We attribute the increase primarily to an increase in average invested
assets.
Net Investment (Losses) Gains. Net investment losses for the first three months
of 2022 were
first three months of 2021. The net investment losses and gains for the first
three months of 2022 and 2021, respectively, resulted primarily from the net
change in unrealized gains and losses within our equity securities portfolio at
losses in our investment portfolio during the first three months of 2022 or
2021.
Losses and Loss Expenses. Our insurance subsidiaries' loss ratio, which is the
ratio of incurred losses and loss expenses to premiums earned, was 59.2% for the
first three months of 2022, a decrease from our insurance subsidiaries' loss
ratio of 63.7% for the first three months of 2021. We attribute this decrease
primarily to favorable prior year loss development and lower fire losses.
Weather-related losses of
ratio, for the first three months of 2022, increased from
percentage points of the loss ratio, for the first three months of 2021.
Weather-related loss activity for the first three months of 2022 was lower than
our previous five-year average of
weather-related losses. On a statutory basis, our insurance subsidiaries'
commercial lines loss ratio was 57.2% for the first quarter of 2022, compared to
66.3% for the first three months of 2021, primarily due to decreases in the
commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and workers' compensation loss
ratios. The personal lines statutory loss ratio of our insurance subsidiaries
increased to 63.0% for the first three months of 2022, compared to 61.0% for the
first three months of 2021. We attribute this increase primarily to an increase
in large homeowner fire losses, which we define as individual fire losses in
excess of
experienced
million
favorable loss reserve development for the first quarter of 2022 of
approximately
compared to
2021 by 4.4 percentage points. Our insurance subsidiaries experienced favorable
development in all lines of business in the first quarter of 2022, with the
majority of the impact relating to reserves for accident years 2021 and 2020 in
the commercial automobile, personal automobile, commercial multi-peril and
workers' compensation lines of business.
Underwriting Expenses. The expense ratio for an insurance company is the ratio
of policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses to premiums earned.
The expense ratio of our insurance subsidiaries was 35.8% for the first three
months of 2022, compared to 34.1% for the first three months of 2021. The
increase in the expense ratio primarily reflected an increase in our
underwriting-based incentive costs for our agents and employees and higher
technology system-related expenses due to an increased allocation of costs from
Donegal Mutual to our insurance subsidiaries related to our ongoing systems
modernization project.
Combined Ratio. The combined ratio represents the sum of the loss ratio, the
expense ratio and the dividend ratio, which is the ratio of policyholder
dividends incurred to premiums earned. Our insurance subsidiaries' combined
ratios were 95.8% and 98.5% for the three months ended
respectively. We attribute the decrease in the combined ratio primarily to a
decrease in the loss ratio for the first three months of 2022 compared to the
first three months of 2021.
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Interest Expense. Our interest expense for the first three months of 2022 was
the decrease to lower average borrowings under our lines of credit during the
first three months of 2022 compared to the first three months of 2021.
Income Tax Expense. We recorded income tax expense of
three months of 2022, representing an effective tax rate of 19.0% We recorded
income tax expense of
representing an effective tax rate of 17.4%. The income tax expense for the
first three months of 2022 and 2021 represented estimates based on our projected
annual taxable income and effective tax rates.
Net Income and Income Per Share. Our net income for the first three months of
2022 was
basis and
had 25.8 million and 25.0 million Class A shares outstanding at
and 2021, respectively. We had 5.6 million Class B shares outstanding at the end
of both periods.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Liquidity is a measure of an entity's ability to secure enough cash to meet its
contractual obligations and operating needs as such obligations and needs arise.
Our major sources of funds from operations are the net cash flows we generate
from our insurance subsidiaries' underwriting results, investment income and
investment maturities.
Our operations have historically generated sufficient net positive cash flow to
fund our commitments and add to our investment portfolio, thereby increasing
future investment returns and enhancing our liquidity. The impact of the pooling
agreement between Donegal Mutual and Atlantic States has historically been
cash-flow positive because of the consistent underwriting profitability of the
pool. Donegal Mutual and Atlantic States settle their respective obligations to
each other under the pool monthly, thereby resulting in cash flows substantially
similar to the cash flows that would result from each company writing the
business directly. We have not experienced any unusual variations in the timing
of claim payments associated with the loss reserves of our insurance
subsidiaries. We maintain significant liquidity in our investment portfolio in
the form of readily marketable fixed maturities, equity securities and
short-term investments. We structure our fixed-maturity investment portfolio
following a "laddering" approach, so that projected cash flows from investment
income and principal maturities are evenly distributed from a timing
perspective, thereby providing an additional measure of liquidity to meet our
obligations should an unexpected variation occur in the future. Our operating
activities provided net cash flows in the first three months of 2022 and 2021 of
At
with M&T and had the ability to borrow up to
equal to the then-current LIBOR rate plus 2.00%. At
States had a
carries a fixed interest rate of 1.74%.
We estimate the timing of claim payments associated with the liabilities for
losses and loss expenses of our insurance subsidiaries based on historical
experience and expectations of future payment patterns. We show these
liabilities net of reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and loss expenses to
reflect expected future cash flows related to such liabilities. Amounts Atlantic
States assumes pursuant to the pooling agreement with Donegal Mutual represent a
substantial portion of our insurance subsidiaries' gross liabilities for losses
and loss expenses, and amounts Atlantic States cedes pursuant to the pooling
agreement represent a substantial portion of our insurance subsidiaries'
reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and loss expenses. We include cash
settlement of Atlantic States' assumed liabilities from the pool in monthly
settlements of pooled activity, as we net amounts ceded to and assumed from the
pool. Although Donegal Mutual and we do not anticipate any changes in the pool
participation levels in the foreseeable future, any such change would be
prospective in nature and therefore would not impact the timing of expected
payments by Atlantic States for its percentage share of pooled losses occurring
in periods prior to the effective date of such change.
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Index
We discuss in Note 7 - Borrowings our estimate of the timing of the amounts
payable for the borrowings under our lines of credit based on their contractual
maturities.
On
pursuant to which we have the authority to purchase up to 500,000 shares of our
Class A common stock at prices prevailing from time to time in the open market
subject to the provisions of applicable rules of the
negotiated transactions. We did not purchase any shares of our Class A common
stock under this program during the three months ended
We have purchased a total of 57,658 shares of our Class A common stock under
this program from its inception through
On
our Class B common stock, payable on
as of the close of business on
restrictions on our payment of dividends to our stockholders, although there are
state law restrictions on the payment of dividends by our insurance subsidiaries
to us. Dividends from our insurance subsidiaries are our principal source of
cash for payment of dividends to our stockholders. Our insurance subsidiaries
are subject to regulations that restrict the payment of dividends from statutory
surplus and may require prior approval of their domiciliary insurance regulatory
authorities. Our insurance subsidiaries are also subject to risk based capital
("RBC") requirements that limit their ability to pay dividends to us. Our
insurance subsidiaries' statutory capital and surplus at
exceeded the amount of statutory capital and surplus necessary to satisfy
regulatory requirements, including the RBC requirements, by a significant
margin. Our insurance subsidiaries did not pay any dividends to us during the
first three months of 2022. Amounts remaining available for distribution to us
as dividends from our insurance subsidiaries without prior approval of their
domiciliary insurance regulatory authorities in 2022 are
Atlantic States,
At
Equity Price Risk
Our portfolio of marketable equity securities, which we carry on our
consolidated balance sheets at estimated fair value, has exposure to the risk of
loss resulting from an adverse change in prices. We manage this risk by having
our investment personnel perform an analysis of prospective investments and
regular reviews of our portfolio of equity securities.
Credit Risk
Our portfolio of fixed-maturity securities and, to a lesser extent, our
portfolio of short-term investments is subject to credit risk, which we define
as the potential loss in market value resulting from adverse changes in the
borrower's ability to repay its debt. We manage this risk by having our
investment personnel perform an analysis of prospective investments and regular
reviews of our portfolio of fixed-maturity securities. We also limit the
percentage and amount of our total investment portfolio that we invest in the
securities of any one issuer.
Our insurance subsidiaries provide property and casualty insurance coverages
through independent insurance agencies. We bill the majority of this business
directly to the insured, although we bill a portion of our commercial business
through licensed insurance agents to whom our insurance subsidiaries extend
credit in the normal course of business.
Because the pooling agreement does not relieve Atlantic States of primary
liability as the originating insurer, Atlantic States is subject to a
concentration of credit risk arising from the business it cedes to Donegal
Mutual. Our insurance subsidiaries maintain reinsurance agreements with Donegal
Mutual and with a number of other major unaffiliated authorized reinsurers.
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