Dispelling the Myth: House GOP Repeal Bill Will Nearly Double Uninsurance for Young Adults
A new analysis from the nonpartisan
Millions of Young Adults will Lose Coverage
The ACA cut the young adult uninsurance rate nearly in half, whereas the CBO estimates that the
* Uninsurance: According to our analysis of the CBO's projections, under the
* Impact of Cutting Medicaid and Means-Based Tax Credits:
*
* The
* 12.3 million young adults age 19-29 have incomes that are at or below 150 percent of the Federal Poverty Line, so it is likely that millions of low-income young people would lose out not only on their
* The CBO similarly suggests that people living within this income bracket will not see their premiums go down.
* The CBO states that changes in age rating, the flat tax credits adjusted only by age, and a reduction in the quality of plans available would bring premiums down for many moderate- and upper-income young people and increase the share of young people in the risk pool. These changes, however, do not outweigh the coverage losses that young people see due to losses in
* The Millennial Penalty: People who experience a gap in coverage for more than 63 days during the previous year will be charged a 30 percent premium surcharge for the next 12 months. Life changes that can cause brief disruptions in coverage disproportionately burden young adults, who are more likely to move, change jobs, or lack the resources to handle financial hardships that may lead to lapses in coverage. The CBO similarly states that this penalty will make healthy consumers far less likely to enroll.
* The CBO estimates that 2 million fewer people would purchase insurance in the years after 2018 as a result of the continuous coverage penalty.
*Coming this week: New YI analysis looks at the scale of how many young people could be subject to the Millennial Penalty -- and how the figures compare to other age groups.
* Defunding Planned Parenthood: Millions of young people rely on
Higher Out of Pocket Costs Create Barriers to Care
The CBO projects that much of the decrease in premium costs can be attributed to a decrease in the quality of coverage offered, in turn raising out-of-pocket costs for consumers, many of whom are low-income. But young people have consistently chosen better plans when given the choice and the means. For example, the ACA offers a "catastrophic plan" option, primarily for those under 30 - but less than 1 percent of marketplace enrollees have chosen that option. At the same time, young people have a negative 2 percent savings rate due to other financial constraints, making high deductibles and cost-sharing a significant barrier to care.
* High Out-of-Pocket Costs: Under the
* No Cost-Sharing Subsidies: The CBO estimates that
* About 44 percent of young people earn below 250 FPL, the cut-off for cost-sharing subsidies under the ACA.
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