Commentary: I was a political refugee. Will I be a climate change refugee too?
I arrived in
Let me explain.
In
A pine forest where every tree had been snapped in half. Collapsed buildings. Sailboats littered on highways. Roofless homes. A 20th century city dimly illuminated by 19th century candlelight.
And of course, the look of shock and sadness on people who had lost everything they possessed as they stood waiting in a soup line.
Hurricane Dorian:
Hugo was then the Big One. Three years later, Hurricane Andrew became the Big One.
During the post-Andrew decade, I interviewed all our public officials with a hand in shaping post-Andrew insurance policies -- every governor, every insurance commissioner, every CFO, every state lawmaker, every regulatory agency director chief. I asked: What if another Andrew hits a major urban downtown?
The question now is what if a storm like Dorian, 185 mph sustained winds and 200 mph-plus wind gusts, slams
Today, Andrew and Hugo are midgets compared to the likes of Dorian, Irma, Michael and Maria, monster storms in their sustained winds and geographic scope.
RELATED: Point of View: The rising sea threatens
The new breed of massive storms is not an anomaly or an accident.
In the mid-2000s, while I was on the staff of another news organization, I listened to a presentation by
The study concluded that "global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes" and "that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones."
READ MORE: Palm Beach Post Climate Change
The team chillingly warned us that warmer ocean temperatures could within a generation fuel super storms -- hurricanes much more powerful and much larger than what we had previously experienced.
Roughly 15 years later, here we are.
I don't remember, in my years as a
True, that was a result of the storms' unpredictability. But it was also a reflection of their size.
Dorian's destructive winds extended 100 miles from the center. That's a good 200-plus miles in total. If Dorian's center had landed in
Now, I am not one of those board-up-and-leave-town folks. Nor do I expect to leave on my own.
The storm itself, I will deal with as a proud
For now, I will say my doubt is less about staying before a storm than it is about staying in
At that point, whether I can remain a Floridian may not be up to me. It is a decision that will likely be made for me by post-storm economics.
RELATED:
After Andrew, I spent the better part of 20 years as a business journalist writing about the financial destruction and scars that hurricane left behind.
In the wake of the powerful storm,
A succession of state leaders implemented all sorts of policies and measures to fill the void and offer insurance policies.
In truth, these efforts were bandaging to keep
That relatively affordable insurance market came back in large part because of calm hurricane seasons, minus the 2004-'05 time frame, that allowed insurers to stock up reserves.
That bounce back came at a price -- higher premiums and deductible shock, for example. And modifications. After Wilma in 2005, insurers stopped covering screened-in patios. I know of a homeowner who recently got a letter from their insurer informing him that, to keep his coverage, he must replace his roof at his own expense.
All of this has raised the cost of living in a state that had billed itself as low-tax and low-cost. Just imagine how much more costly a Cat 5-plus storm would make our insurance safety net.
Now, my point is not to point fingers or blame politicians, insurers or developers. I bought a home post-Andrew. I heard the warning in 2005. I knew what I was getting into, just like
Still, the measures that will be needed the next time
The difference between an immigrant and a refugee is that one decides to go and the other is forced to go.
Politics forced my parents out of
___
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