Commentary: I was a political refugee. Will I be a climate change refugee too? - Insurance News | InsuranceNewsNet

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September 13, 2019 Newswires
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Commentary: I was a political refugee. Will I be a climate change refugee too?

Palm Beach Post (FL)

I arrived in Florida as a political refugee, on a flight from Cuba as a child. I fear I will end up leaving Florida as a climate change refugee.

Let me explain.

In September 1989, I covered Hurricane Hugo's aftermath in Charleston. It was the first time I got to personally see the images of destruction and despair that have become so familiar after dozens of storms since.

A pine forest where every tree had been snapped in half. Collapsed buildings. Sailboats littered on highways. Roofless homes. A 20th century city dimly illuminated by 19th century candlelight.

And of course, the look of shock and sadness on people who had lost everything they possessed as they stood waiting in a soup line.

Hurricane Dorian: Florida hardened for storms, but storm showed goalposts have moved

Hugo was then the Big One. Three years later, Hurricane Andrew became the Big One.

During the post-Andrew decade, I interviewed all our public officials with a hand in shaping post-Andrew insurance policies -- every governor, every insurance commissioner, every CFO, every state lawmaker, every regulatory agency director chief. I asked: What if another Andrew hits a major urban downtown?

The question now is what if a storm like Dorian, 185 mph sustained winds and 200 mph-plus wind gusts, slams South Florida and its $1 trillion-plus property market?

South Florida's urban landscape that has added many more skyscraper Class A office buildings, lots of multi-million-dollar penthouses atop high-rise condos and countless more suburban communities since Andrew's $25 billion in damage -- the costliest bill for a natural disaster in U.S. history at the time.

Today, Andrew and Hugo are midgets compared to the likes of Dorian, Irma, Michael and Maria, monster storms in their sustained winds and geographic scope.

RELATED: Point of View: The rising sea threatens South Florida's drinking water – and the region's economic viability

The new breed of massive storms is not an anomaly or an accident.

In the mid-2000s, while I was on the staff of another news organization, I listened to a presentation by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists. They had published a study showing the annual occurrence of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes had almost doubled in number and proportion since the 1970s.

The study concluded that "global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes" and "that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones."

READ MORE: Palm Beach Post Climate Change

The team chillingly warned us that warmer ocean temperatures could within a generation fuel super storms -- hurricanes much more powerful and much larger than what we had previously experienced.

Roughly 15 years later, here we are.

I don't remember, in my years as a South Florida journalist, writing habitually about hurricane cones that nearly cover the entire state of Florida, such was the case with Irma and, at various points, with Matthew and Dorian.

True, that was a result of the storms' unpredictability. But it was also a reflection of their size.

Dorian's destructive winds extended 100 miles from the center. That's a good 200-plus miles in total. If Dorian's center had landed in West Palm Beach, damaging winds would have extended to Melbourne to the north and well beyond Miami to the south.

Now, I am not one of those board-up-and-leave-town folks. Nor do I expect to leave on my own.

The storm itself, I will deal with as a proud Florida man -- a Miami guy, to be specific. I will ride it out in my accordion-shuttered, fortified home, or wherever the Post needs me to be. Even after seeing seen the wreckage and humanitarian crisis on the other side of the horizon after Dorian waged war on the northern Bahamas.

For now, I will say my doubt is less about staying before a storm than it is about staying in Florida after a monster hurricane has passed and the skies have cleared.

At that point, whether I can remain a Floridian may not be up to me. It is a decision that will likely be made for me by post-storm economics.

RELATED: The Invading Sea

After Andrew, I spent the better part of 20 years as a business journalist writing about the financial destruction and scars that hurricane left behind.

In the wake of the powerful storm, Florida's property insurance market had collapsed. We stalwart Florida people all stayed behind, yes, but the big brand names in the insurance business high-tailed it out of the Sunshine State, which had been dubbed the "Plywood State" by some pundits, the "Blue Tarp State" by others.

A succession of state leaders implemented all sorts of policies and measures to fill the void and offer insurance policies.

The Catastrophe Fund, the Joint Underwriting Association, the wind pool, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, all became very familiar to us. Remember, too, when Big Insurance created Florida-only subsidiaries so the next Andrew wouldn't tank the whole company?

In truth, these efforts were bandaging to keep Florida's all-important real estate economy viable. It took almost two decades to restore a functioning private insurance marketplace.

That relatively affordable insurance market came back in large part because of calm hurricane seasons, minus the 2004-'05 time frame, that allowed insurers to stock up reserves.

That bounce back came at a price -- higher premiums and deductible shock, for example. And modifications. After Wilma in 2005, insurers stopped covering screened-in patios. I know of a homeowner who recently got a letter from their insurer informing him that, to keep his coverage, he must replace his roof at his own expense.

All of this has raised the cost of living in a state that had billed itself as low-tax and low-cost. Just imagine how much more costly a Cat 5-plus storm would make our insurance safety net.

Now, my point is not to point fingers or blame politicians, insurers or developers. I bought a home post-Andrew. I heard the warning in 2005. I knew what I was getting into, just like Hyman Roth said in The Godfather II: "This is the business we've chosen."

Still, the measures that will be needed the next time Florida has to restore a shattered property insurance market will likely price me out of the state. The cost of homeowner insurance, let alone the deductibles and other add-ons, may well make my home state unaffordable.

The difference between an immigrant and a refugee is that one decides to go and the other is forced to go.

Politics forced my parents out of Cuba. I fear weather may force me out of Florida.

Antonio Fins is the politics editor of the Palm Beach Post. He came to the United States from Cuba in 1965 at age 2.

___

(c)2019 The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.)

Visit The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.) at www.palmbeachpost.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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