Buffalo Suburbs A Microcosm Of National Election As Dems Hope Members ‘Come Home’

Oct. 31--Amid the tree-lined developments and busy strip malls of several Buffalo suburbs lie the glaring uncertainties of the 2020 presidential election.

Sure, Democratic dominance causes just about every political observer to color Erie County and New York State blue for the contest pitting Joe Biden against President Trump.

But places such as Cheektowaga, Lancaster, West Seneca and Hamburg voted for Republican Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, despite their Democratic enrollment advantages. Now, even as the heavily Democratic City of Buffalo and big towns such as Amherst and Tonawanda appear to be driving Erie County toward the Biden column, speculation surrounds these Democratic entities that often wander toward the GOP.

Will those Democratic towns "come home" to a traditional Democrat like Biden? Or will voters stick with Trump's conservative message, despite a stormy four years in Washington?

It all adds up to more than just political stargazing. The 2020 results in Erie County will help answer questions posed for generations about area voters, and whether they retain a reputation as staunch Democrats with a conservative bent. Watching the results here also could give clues as to what might happen in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania or Michigan.

The Buffalo News questioned eight Republicans and Democrats from the four Democratic towns, each either past or current politicians, about the 2016 vote and what to expect this year. The result: all kinds of predictions, with virtually none of them ironclad as they assess everything from protests and "riots" to the economy and the impact of Covid-19.

Ralph C. Lorigo

For decades, the Conservative Party chairman and West Seneca resident has maintained that Erie County Democrats tilt against the progressive wing of their party. He points out that 23 of the county's 26 towns (many of them Republican) voted for Trump in 2016, and that most will follow suit again in 2020. It is the "wealthy elites," he says, that gravitate toward left-wing Democrats, while union laborers will again join Trump.

"In Erie County, there are a substantial number of Democrats -- hard working, ethnic workers -- who have conservative values," he said. "And they vote those values, not the line."

He believes the president has a good chance of repeating his 2016 success in Erie County's Democratic suburbs, even if some are turned off by his personality or his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

"The pandemic is an over-arching issue," Lorigo said, "but historically, pocketbook issues motivate most people.

"Trump is larger than life. He's able to use his patriotism, business background and ability to brand to identify with those people. Does it add up to 50%? We'll see."

Paul A. Tokasz

For 18 years, the Democrat and current M&T Bank executive represented Cheektowaga and Lancaster in the Assembly, eventually as majority leader. Over the years, he watched Republicans like Ronald Reagan win Cheektowaga's votes for president, followed by fellow Republicans George E. Pataki for governor, Alfonse M. D'Amato for U.S. senator and Dennis C. Vacco for state attorney general.

Again in 2016, Cheektowaga went Republican, voting for Trump over Clinton -- even if by only 576 votes

But throughout his political career, Tokasz also knew his voters -- generally viewed as Democratic, ethnic, Catholic and blue collar. And he understands that Cheektowaga and Lancaster will again consider Trump, even against an old-line Democrat like Biden.

The problem in 2016, Tokasz said, was "a substantial anti-Hillary vote" among the area's conservative Democrats. The difference this year, he said, is a Biden candidacy that could draw old-line Democrats "back home."

"This time around, Vice President Biden is viewed as more of a traditionalist," he said. "He shows empathy and caring, and that resonates with people."

Even though Cheektowaga's demographics are changing in the way of many first-ring suburbs, Tokasz sees it retaining its character for at least the 2020 election.

"It should be 65-35% Democrat," he mused. "And given its registration numbers, you would think it would have voted Democratic four years ago. But by its very nature, that district is conservative."

Daniel O'Connell

The new Hamburg Republican chairman was not leading his town's GOP committee four years ago, but expresses no doubt that its voters' will return to Trump in 2020.

"They will do the same. His message of law and order hits home," said the retired Attica corrections officer. "You talk to anybody in my neighborhood, or in the cigar store where I work now, everybody is sick and tired of riots and looting."

Indeed, Trump has loudly condemned those calling for "defunding" police or breaking the law during demonstrations gripping the nation over the summer and into the fall. And O'Connell believes his voters identify with the president's "law and order" theme, as in 2016 when they got "sick and tired of entrenched people who are not in it for the right reasons."

O'Connell says Hamburg Democrats no longer view their national party as the one led by Franklin D. Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy.

"There's no such thing as a moderate Democrat anymore; the liberals and socialists have taken over," he said. "Look at Biden's running mate (Sen. Kamala Harris), she's one of the most liberal there is."

O'Connell said "there is no doubt in my mind" that a combination of Hamburg's Republicans and Trump-supporting Democrats will result in a repeat win for the president, recalling a late mayor of Buffalo as the kind of conservative Democrat with whom his voters can identify.

"Trump and Jimmy Griffin are the same type of personality," he said.

James M. Shaw

Hamburg's Democratic supervisor steers far clear of O'Connell's characterization of modern Democrats, but agrees his locals see little connection to the national party's "coastal elites." That helped contribute to what he called Hamburg's "perfect storm" in 2016.

"Trump captured that frustration and they coalesced behind him and his hyper-nationalistic message," he said. "And there is a universal aversion to Hillary Clinton in Hamburg."

But Shaw sees a different outcome on Election Day 2020. He said Hamburg's working class voters are hard hit by the coronavirus, and that Trump will be held accountable for the "significant economic fallout."

"There is tremendous resentment toward the president for his handling of Covid-19," Shaw said.

And the supervisor views Biden as Hamburg's kind of Democrat.

"People perceive Biden as more of a Democrat in the tradition of Hubert Humphrey or JFK," he said. "He's seen as decent, and that contrasts so perfectly with Trump."

Jack F. Quinn Jr.

Few politicians, current or former, can identify with the suburbs as much as former Rep. Jack F. Quinn Jr. From 1993 to 2005, he served as the Republican representing the most Democratic district in the House. Quinn not only survived, but prospered by winning over the district's conservative Democrats and remaining friendly with organized labor, even as a Republican.

A former Hamburg supervisor who also represented Cheektowaga in Congress, Quinn agrees the town never warmed up to Clinton in 2016, and that Trump emerged as "the lesser of two evils."

"They didn't want to stay home and not vote, but there was a pent-up anger with Mrs. Clinton," he said.

Now, the former congressman and former president of Erie Community College is watching long lines of early voters and concludes they have made up their minds "and don't need to hear any more."

Trump still appeals to the suburbs' conservative voters, he said, especially when the president brands Biden as a tax-raiser.

"Part of Trump's message is 'He's going to tax you,' " Quinn said. "I've found that worries people who keep track of their hard-earned money. On the other hand, when they heard the president of the United States has not paid any taxes ... it could go either way."

But he also believes his old district will consider a Democratic presidential candidate not named Clinton.

"He matches perfectly with Cheektowaga and Hamburg as places that want to support him," Quinn said of Biden.

Dale M. Volker

The longtime Republican senator represented Lancaster, Cheektowaga and other areas in the State Senate for 34 years after four in the Assembly. Though away from the scene for a decade, he believes he can still read the voters.

"Trump is going to win in those suburbs again, even if he loses Buffalo and the state," he said.

Especially in towns such as Cheektowaga, the former senator sees anti-abortion sentiment as a problem for pro-choice Democrats such as Biden.

"Abortion is of particular concern to Catholics who are anti-abortion," he said. "It's a big deal."

Volker agrees that voters in Cheektowaga or Lancaster also have had enough of rioters and looters and identify with Trump, although the president sports an Achilles heel.

"Covid is an issue," he said, "and it may bring Trump down."

Terry McCracken

Lancaster's Democratic chairman blames the "same old thing" for his party's defection to Trump four years ago.

"People were tired of it," he said. "The problem in my town was they wanted change and got it. The question now is where do we go from here."

It bothers McCracken when Republicans paint his Democrats as left-wingers supporting very progressive programs. That is not Lancaster, he said, and believes Biden offers enough of a moderate image that town Democrats will "come home."

"The biggest issue is how this pandemic has been handled," he said. "People look at this country now and ask: 'Is this the type of president we want to represent us?'

"I know these people," he added, "and it's hard to believe the people of this town want to see another four years of chaos."

Monica P. Wallace

The Democrat is seeking her third term in the Assembly, and walks a fine line in assessing the mood of her Cheektowaga/Lancaster district. She acknowledges that Cheektowaga offers a national microcosm on the election, pointing to the plethora of local lawns sporting her Democratic signs and Trump's Republican signs.

Wallace said the district seems to reflect the nation's sharp division in the presidential election. She says people are energized by the election, "and that's a good thing."

"I think people just have different ideas about who will be the best leader," she said. "I'm loathe to make a prediction."

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