ANI 2015: Consolidation, Tech, Boomers to Drive Future

HFMA News

Consolidation of health care, introduction of new technologies, and the growing healthcare needs of aging baby boomers will drive transformative change in the next decade.

That message was delivered by internationally renowned healthcare futurist Ian Morrison during a keynote presentation at ANI: The HFMA National Institute in Orlando this past June.

In sharing a vision for the future during the presentation with HFMA President and CEO Joe Fifer, Morrison said the future of health care will also pivot on shifting roles for providers and payers as they form new business arrangements to "pursue a triple- aim vision of lower per capita cost, improved population health, and improved experience of care."

Consolidation Effects

Morrison described a national trend in which regionally integrated delivery systems (IDSs) increasingly take up a larger share of the marketplace. Combined with new business models such as accountable care organizations and bundled payments, this trend toward consolidation is likely to result in new partnerships and shifting roles in which the lines of distinction between providers and payers continue to blur.

Morrison said he envisions a scenario in which IDSs handle the key components of care management, while health plans handle front-end enrollment and customer churn in the marketplace. "Everybody thinks that everybody else's job is easy in health care, and that anyone can do what an insurance company does. I don't think that's true," he said.

Consolidation often conflicts with the goals of some stakeholders and the government to reduce healthcare costs. As hospitals buy up smaller rivals and acquire physician practices, they control larger segments of the market and drive up costs. The ability of healthcare consumers to negotiate prices or select a less expensive provider is reduced in this scenario.

The trend toward consolidation is likely to cause disputes going forward as healthcare consumers take on a greater share of their medical costs.

Morrison and Fifer also described efforts to further integrate medical services across the care continuum. In light of new business models that reward value over volume, IT will continue to play a critical role, as will efforts to build a culture of quality and accountability. Healthcare systems increasingly should focus on developing clinical consistency for patients across the entire continuum of care, Morrison said.

Workforce Changes

Another prominent theme was the impact of changing demographics on both care delivery and the healthcare workforce.

Every day, 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 and become eligible for Medicare. "You've got massive increases in people over 65, 75, 85," Morrison said. "That sets up dramatic burdens on the health system because health spending rises continuously with age."

As the population ages, the workforce charged with caring for it becomes younger. Even larger than the baby boomer generation is the millennial generation (those born from the early 1980s through the early 3000s). In fact, millennials recently nudged baby boomers out of their spot as the largest share of the labor force, Morrison said.

The moral of Morrison's generational story: An aging baby boomer population will present growing demands on a millennial workforce charged with the care of that population.