Analysts: U.S. Economy To Grow At Slowest Pace In Three Years

An organization of business experts said in a new survey Monday the U.S. economy will grow by less than 2 percent in 2020 -- the slowest pace in three years.

The National Association for Business Economics said in its October outlook it expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow by just 1.8 percent next year -- a decline from the 2.1 percent projection it made in June.

"The panel turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80 percent of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside," said NABE Survey Chair Gregory Daco.

"The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity."

A significant factor in the new outlook is the protracted trade conflict between the United States and China.

Advertisement

The NABE study is the latest in a string of negative projections for the U.S. economy in the coming months.

"Four out of five panelists (81 percent) believe that risks to the economic outlook are weighted to the downside, an increase from the 60 percent who held this view in June," the group said. "Only 8 percent believe risks are weighted to the upside -- down from 10 percent in the June survey -- while 10 percent of respondents report that risks are balanced."

A Chinese trade delegation will visit the United States for renewed trade talks Thursday. It will be the 13th round of talks between Washington and Beijing since President Donald Trump took office.

The survey polled 51 economists and asked for their opinions as to the greatest threat to the domestic economy. More than half those surveyed, 53 percent, cited the Trump administration's trade policy as the greatest threat. Others identified financial market volatility.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned the Trump administration in August that tariffs for billions of dollars worth of Chinese exports have made a significant negative impact.