7 Minnesota Tornadoes So Far This Year

June 03-- Severe Threat Tuesday According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Slight Risk of severe weather across much of Minnesota and into western Wisconsin for the potential of large hail and damaging winds on Tuesday. It appears that we start on a fairly quiet note, but could quickly turn unsettled as we head into the afternoon hours as storms pop, some of which could also produce locally heavy rain. ________________________________________________________________________ Weather Outlook Tuesday Here's the weather outlook for Tuesday, which shows a few storms developing during the second half of the day with the potential of large hail, damaging winds and even locally heavy rainfall. Again, keep in mind that there is a severe threat across much of the state and into western Wisconsin. ________________________________________________________________________ Rainfall Potential Through AM Wednesday Here's the rainfall potential across the state, which shows a few pockets of heavier amounts thanks to thunderstorm activity expected to develop later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Some locations could see up to 0.50" or more in the heaviest thunderstorms, but it won't be very widespread. The next best chance of more widespread rain arrives this weekend. ________________________________________________________________________ Tuesday Weather Outlook Tuesday is going to be a very warm day across the region with temps warming into the 80s across much of Minnesota. Keep in mind that dewpoints will also warm into the mid/upper 60s across parts of the state, which will make it feel even warmer. In fact, heat index values or feels like temps could approach 90F for some, including the Twin Cities! __________________________________________________________________________ Max Heat Index Values on Tuesday With temps warming into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s, max heat index values will also warm into the upper 80s to near 90F for some across the state. This will likely be one of the warmest days we've had of 2019, so far. ___________________________________________________________________________ Extended Temperature Outlook The extended temperature outlook through mid June shows fairly warm temps for much of the week, but after a weekend rain and thunderstorm chance, temps look to take a bit of a tumble next week. In fact, the extended temperature outlook from NOAA's CPC, suggests a cooler than average temperature outlook mid month. ________________________________________________________________________ Temperature Outlook According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook from June 11th - 17th shows cooler than average temperature moving into the Central US by mid month. However, folks in Alaska and the West Coast will still be dealing with warmer than average temps. ____________________________________________________________________________ Tropical Activity? If you can believe it, NOAA's National Hurricane Center is tracking an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, which as of Monday has a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. ____________________________________________________________________________ More Heavy Rain in the Central and Southern US This particular tropical wave is expected to lift north into the Lower 48 later this week and could potentially bring another round of very heavy rainfall, which could lead to additional flooding. At this point, as much as 2" to 5"+ of rain could fall in area that are already dealing with Major Flooding. _____________________________________________________________________________ Smoky Haze Continues Wildfires burning across northern Alberta Canada are spewing thick smoke plumes across Central Canada right and and thanks to a prevailing northwesterly wind, that smoke is meandering through the Upper Midwest. At times, it has been very thick creating an orage glow to sunrises and sunsets near you. __________________________________________________________________________ Smoky Haze Above Minnesota This was the satellite from early Monday morning, which showed a mixture of clouds and smoke across the Upper Midwest. ____________________________________________________________________________ Wildfires in Canada Take a look at the satellite image below and note the red outlined areas in the northern part of Alberta Canada. These are wildfires currently buring there, some of which have been very intense. Thanks to the prevailing northern wind, this wildfire smoke is making its way into the Lower 48, at times even across Minnesota and Wisconsin. _____________________________________________________________________________ "Canadian Wildfires Are Already Turning Sunsets Red in the US"

"The calendar hasn’t turned to summer yet, but skies in Canada and across the U.S. already look like August. Smoke from massive Canadian wildfires has made the sun disappear in Edmonton and turned Friday’s sunrise blood red as far east as Vermont. More than 900,000 acres of Alberta has gone up in flames, the latest symptom of our overheating planet. Wildfire risk continues to be high in the province as well as neighboring British Columbia where a heat wave has temperatures climbing into the 90s for parts of the province through the weekend. There are currently 10 fires in Alberta raging out of control according to the province’s fire agency. The largest of which is the Chuckegg Creek Fire burning in the northwest part of the province. The blaze, combined with others in the High Level fire district, has consumed more than 610,000 acres as of Thursday according to the agency, and along with the other wildfires in the province, forced 10,000 to flee from their homes. The province remains on a Level 5 alert, the highest alert level the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) issues, due to a combination of factors including dangerous weather, high fuel loads, and inadequate resources to respond to any new fires. The country as a whole remains on a Level 3 alert, and with a hot, dry weekend ahead for British Columbia, Alberta, and parts of the Yukon Territory, the threat of more conflagrations remains acute."

See more from Earther HERE:

__________________________________________________________________________ 7 Minnesota Tornadoes So Far This Year By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas. Cue the music Alice Cooper, school is out for summer! Ah yes, one of my fondest memories as a kid was throwing my backpack in a corner and only having to worry about missing the ice cream truck on a hot day. Sigh... Those were the days!

One of my other favorite memories as a kid was being able to watch severe storm warnings pop up on the television screen and getting excited to see storms nearing my county. Those were the formative years of a budding meteorologist before smart phones.

June is typically an active month for severe weather in Minnesota. In fact, we average 15 tornadoes in June, the most out of any other month during the year. Surprisingly, there were 7 tornadoes in May. The yearly average is also a little more than 40.

According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of severe storms across the state later today with large hail and damaging wind the primary threat. It'll also be a bit on the humid side as dewpoints surge into the 60s. I predict that most will be tempted to flip on the A/C later today.

Happy Summer!

_____________________________________________ Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: PM Storms, some severe. Winds: S 5-10. High: 83.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance to T-storms. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mild. Gradually clearing skies. Winds: N 5-10. High: 82.

THURSDAY: Warm again. Spotty PM rumble? Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 83.

FRIDAY: Filtered sunshine. Still very nice. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.

SATURDAY: Increasing shower and storm chance. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 79.

SUNDAY: Storms early. Clearing late and breezy. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 61. High: 76.

MONDAY: Sunny start. Isolated PM shower. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 75. ______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History June 4th

1935: The latest official measurable snowfall in Minnesota falls at Mizpah on this date with 1.5 inches. __________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis June 4th

Average High: 75F (Record: 96F set in 1968) Average Low: 55F (Record: 38F set in 1988)

Record Rainfall: 1.92" set in 1880 Record Snowfall: NONE _________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis June 4th

Sunrise: 5:28am Sunset: 8:54pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 26 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 14 seconds Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): ~6 hours and 41 minutes __________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for June 4th at Midnight 1.9 Days Since New Moon

See more from Space HERE:

___________________________________ What's in the Night Sky?

"Start looking for the young moon in the evening sky around June 4, 2019. Will anyone see it on June 3? Possibly, but by June 4 we should all be able to see it, near the sunset point, shortly after sunset. Elusive Mercury, innermost planet in our solar system, is also in that part of the sky. Red Mars – now rather faint – shines above Mercury. Mercury can be found near the moon on June 4; then on June 5 and 6, the moon’s lighted face points to Mars. Just note that Mars is far behind Earth now in the race of the planets around the sun. Earth will soon “turn the corner” ahead of Mars in orbit, sending the planet into the sunset glare. Mars is so faint now that it might not be visible until nightfall, after the moon and Mercury have already set. In other words, have your binoculars handy. Mercury, on the other hand, is brighter than Mars now, although it might not look brighter to you this week because it’s still near the sunset. In both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, June 2019 presents a fine apparition of Mercury in the evening sky. On these early June evenings, Mercury is some 5 times brighter than a 1st-magnitude star and 10 times brighter than Mars. Even though this planet has to contend the afterglow of sunset, you might be able to see Mercury with the eye alone an hour or so after sunset. If not … yep, you guessed it. Try your binoculars."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Average Tornadoes By State in June According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in June is still very high across much of the nation. Interestingly, Minnesota average the most tornadoes in June than any other month during the year with 15. ______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows nearly 1,000 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley. ______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through May 30th suggests that there have been a total of 1,047, which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 792. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,432 tornadoes were reported. ________________________________________________________________________ National Weather Outlook Here's the weather outlook as we head through the first half of the week and notice that weather conditions in the Central US still look to be fairly unsettled. Areas of showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe, will lead to more heavy rainfall and flooding. Meanwhile, the Western US should stay mostly dry. ______________________________________________________________________________ Heavy Ranifall Potential Here's the 7 day precipitation potential across the nation, which shows another blob of heavy precipitation across the Central US once again. This will likely lead to more flooding in areas that are already dealing with it and could potentially lead to more flooding for areas that are on the verge. _________________________________________________________________________________ Major Flooding From Heavy May Rains The image below shows all of the current river observations that are near or above flood stage across the nation. Note that several rivers in the Central US are dealing with Major Flooding (purple coloring) thanks to all of the heavy rain as of late. Interestingly, some locations are dealing with record crests, which could potentially linger through the early part of June. "What We Know (And Don’t) About Tornadoes And Climate Change" "As the seemingly endless barrage of violent tornadoes continued to pummel a large swath of the United States this week, lawmakers and concerned citizens declared on social media that the storms offered a front row seat to the unfolding climate crisis. During a presidential campaign stop in disaster-stricken Iowa, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) posted a video in which she says planetary warming is helping drive severe weather events, including tornadoes, and blasts those who deny the reality of climate change for “putting us all at risk.” In a post to Twitter, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), another 2020 contender, slammed the Trump administration for working to undermine climate science as sections of the central United States reel from tornadoes and catastrophic flooding. And when Washington, D.C., was put under a tornado warning May 23, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) posted to Instagram: “The climate crisis is real, y’all.” See more from Huffington Post HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________ "What is the hurricane ‘cone of uncertainty’? Here’s what the forecast means for you"

"The cone of uncertainty, the cone of concern, the cone of death. The hurricane forecast cone becomes a familiar sight for many people as the Atlantic hurricane season heats up during the summer and fall each year. But not everybody knows what it really means. National Hurricane Center specialists John Cangialosi and Robbie Berg say the graphic cone forecasts, released regularly whenever there’s a hurricane out there, can be misunderstood or “used in ways it was never meant for.” “What’s the first picture your TV meteorologist might put on the screen? It’s probably a hurricane cone, showing where the storm may go,” Cangialosi said in a new video explaining how to use the forecast. “The cone represents the probable track of just the center of the storm,” Berg said in the video. “The most important point is that a hurricane is not a point,” Berg said. “Impacts of the storm often occur well outside of the cone.”

See more from The State HERE:

_______________________________________________________________________________ "How getting more daylight can improve your mental and physical health"

"Spending less time outside and more time in dim artificial light is disrupting our body clocks and undermining our health. The good news? A little daylight goes a long way. MORTEN HALMØ PETERSEN used to live in a windowless basement flat in Copenhagen. If he didn’t get out in the daytime, he would lose track of time and start becoming irritated and depressed. “When you are living in a basement with only artificial light, it becomes very clear that something is lacking,” he says. “It’s an emotional, physical and mental thing all combined.” You can say that again. Our lifestyles have rapidly changed our relationship with light. Prior to the invention of gas lighting at the turn of the 19th century, the only artificial light we could rely on was from flickering firelight, candles or whale-oil lamps. People also spent many more of their waking hours outside."

See more from New Scientist HERE:

__________________________________________________________________________ "Why tornadoes can erupt from supercell thunderstorms"

"The northern hemisphere springtime marks the pinnacle of severe weather in the US as violent thunderstorms develop over the midwest and Great Plains. Most of this severe weather is spawned from a specific type of thunderstorm: the supercell. One of the first studies on supercells was conducted by the British meteorology professor Keith Browning in 1962, which described in detail a violent thunderstorm that struck Wokingham, England, in 1959. Unlike most kinds of thunderstorms, a supercell is required to have a mesocyclone at its heart. A mesocyclone is a deep, persistently rotating updraft that, in essence, suggests the rising motion within a thunderstorm is spiralling its way upwards into the atmosphere. These rotating updrafts allow supercell thunderstorms to hold their structure for long periods, generating copious amounts of lightning, large hailstones and violent downpours of rain. The spinning motion of the storm can, in some circumstances, become focused to ground-level with the formation of tornadoes."

See more from The Guardian HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________ "Do skyscrapers really make cities tornado-proof? Or does it just come down to luck?"

"Tornadoes have long been the subject of old wives’ tales. Many of these myths have been debunked over the years -- it turns out you don’t have to open your windows so your home won’t explode -- but with tornadoes barely skirting both Kansas City and New York City this week, many are asking why tornadoes seem to avoid urban centers. Some say skyscrapers are the main deterrent that keep tornadoes at bay, but experts say this, too, is a tall tale. Instead, it’s all just a matter of luck and the relatively small size of cities when compared to expansive rural areas, according to the Storm Prediction Center, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

See more from Kentucky.com HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________ Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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