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February 28, 2023 Newswires
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2022 Year End Review

U.S. Regulated Equity Markets (Alternative Disclosure) via PUBT

2022 Year End Review

MARCH 1, 2023

Forward Looking Statement

In this presentation, we have included statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "estimate," "project," "plan," "believe," "anticipate," "intend," "planned," "potential" and similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as "will," "should," "would," "could," and "may," or the negative of those expressions or verbs, identify forward-looking statements. We caution readers that these statements are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts but instead represent only our beliefs regarding future events, which may by their nature be inherently uncertain and some of which may be outside our control. These statements may relate to plans and objectives with respect to the future, among other things which may change. We are alerting you to the possibility that our actual results may differ, possibly materially, from the expected objectives or anticipated results that may be suggested, expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause our results to differ, possibly materially, from those indicated in the forward-looking statements include, among others, those discussed under "Risk Factors" .

Any or all of management's forward-looking statements here or in other publications may tuout to be incorrect and are based on management's current belief or opinions. Ambac Financial Group's ("AFG") and its subsidiaries' (collectively, "Ambac" or the "Company") actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about the performance of Ambac's securities. Among events, risks, uncertainties or factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are: (1) the high degree of volatility in the price of AFG's common stock; (2) uncertainty concerning the Company's ability to achieve value for holders of its securities, whether from Ambac Assurance Corporation ("AAC") and its subsidiaries or from the specialty property and casualty insurance business, the insurance distribution business, or related businesses; (3) inadequacy of reserves established for losses and loss expenses and the possibility that changes in loss reserves may result in further volatility of earnings or financial results; (4) potential for rehabilitation proceedings or other regulatory intervention or restrictions against AAC; (5) credit risk throughout Ambac's business, including but not limited to credit risk related to insured residential mortgage-backed securities, student loan and other asset securitizations, public finance obligations (including risks associated with Chapter 9 and other restructuring proceedings), issuers of securities in our investment portfolios, and exposures to reinsurers; (6) our inability to effectively reduce insured financial guarantee exposures or achieve recoveries or investment objectives; (7) our inability to generate the significant amount of cash needed to service our debt and financial obligations, and our inability to refinance our indebtedness; (8) Ambac's substantial indebtedness could adversely affect its financial condition and operating flexibility; (9) Ambac may not be able to obtain financing or raise capital on acceptable terms or at all due to its substantial indebtedness and financial condition; (10) greater than expected underwriting losses in the Company's specialty property and casualty insurance business; (11) failure of specialty insurance program partners to properly market, underwrite or administer policies; (12) inability to obtain reinsurance coverage on expected terms; (13) loss of key relationships for production of business in specialty property and casualty and insurance distribution businesses or the inability to secure such additional relationships to produce expected results; (14) the impact of catastrophic public health, environmental or natural events, or global or regional conflicts, on significant portions of our insured portfolio; (15) credit risks related to large single risks, risk concentrations and correlated risks; (16) risks associated with adverse selection as Ambac's financial guarantee insurance portfolio runs off; (17) the risk that Ambac's risk management policies and practices do not anticipate certain risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss; (18) restrictive covenants in agreements and instruments that impair Ambac's ability to pursue or achieve its business strategies; (19) adverse effects on operating results or the Company's financial position resulting from measures taken to reduce financial guarantee risks in its insured portfolio; (20) disagreements or disputes with Ambac's insurance regulators; (21) loss of control rights in transactions for which we provide financial guarantee insurance; (22) inability to realize expected recoveries of financial guarantee losses; (23) risks attendant to the change in composition of securities in the Ambac's investment portfolio;

  1. adverse impacts from changes in prevailing interest rates; (25) events or circumstances that result in the impairment of our intangible assets and/or goodwill that was recorded in connection with Ambac's acquisitions; (26) risks associated with the expected discontinuance of the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate; (27) factors that may negatively influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac; (28) the risk of litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the risk of adverse outcomes in connection therewith; (29) the Company's ability to adapt to the rapid pace of regulatory change; (30) actions of stakeholders whose interests are not aligned with broader interests of Ambac's stockholders; (31) system security risks, data protection breaches and cyber attacks; (32) regulatory oversight of Ambac Assurance UK Limited ("Ambac UK") and applicable regulatory restrictions may adversely affect our ability to realize value from Ambac UK or the amount of value we ultimately realize;
  1. failures in services or products provided by third parties; (34) political developments that disrupt the economies where the Company has insured exposures; (35) our inability to attract and retain qualified executives, senior managers and other employees, or the loss of such personnel; (36) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; (37) failure to realize our business expansion plans or failure of such plans to create value; (38) greater competition for our specialty property and casualty insurance business and/or our insurance distribution business; (39) loss or lowering of the AM Best rating for our property and casualty insurance company subsidiaries; (40) disintermediation within the insurance industry or greater competition from technology-based insurance solutions; (41) changes in law or in the functioning of the healthcare market that impair the business model of our accident and health managing general underwriter; and (42) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time.

2

2022 Key Accomplishments

Transformational achievements across the entire platform

AFG

  • $522 millionof Net Income
  • $740 millionEBITDA1
  • +24% Book Value per Share
  • +50% Adjusted Book Value per Share2

Specialty P&C

  • +116% of Premium Production
  • 2x Program Partners to 14
  • 2 MGA/brokerAcquisitions
  • 1 De Novo Incubation Announced3

Legacy

  • ~$2 billion of RMBS Settlements
  • ($1.8) billion of Debt Reduction
  • $150 million Discount Capture
  • Puerto Rico Restructured- PRIFA, CCDA, and HTA

1. For EBITDA reconciliation to pre-tac net income see Ambac's 2022 form 10-K

3 2. See slide 14 for Adjusted Book Value reconciliation to Book Value

  1. Second de novo incubation announced in January 2023
  2. 2-taxGAAP Net Income

2022 Key Accomplishments

Ambac De-Leveraged and De-Risked in 2022

De-Leverage Ratios to ABV

  • (100%) R&W Recoverable Reduction1
  • (74%) Debt Leverage Reduction

De-Risking Activities

  • (77%) Puerto Rico Exposure Reduction
  • (51%) Net Reserve Reduction (ex. R&W)
  • (26%) Adverse Credit Reduction
  • (19%) Net Par Outstanding Reduction

4

1.

When combined with the Nomura related debt reduction in 1Q23

2.

2-tax GAAP Net Income

Ambac Assurance What's Next?

Acceleration of strategic options following settlements totaling ~$2 billion with Bank of America and Nomura

Settlement amount:

Settlement Overview

~$2 bn

Future Strategic Considerations

Re-imagining AAC as a run-off portfolio as we strive towards being in a positive carry position following $100 million of interest and other expense reductions

$1.84 bn

Bank of America Settlement

$1.4 billion

$397 million

Senior debt

Net gain on settlement

repaid

$140 mn

Nomura Settlement

$146 million1

$43 million

Senior debt

Net gain on settlement

repaid

Regulatory capital reassessment

Strategic reinsurance transactions

Partial or full sale

Asset & Liability Management

Unlocking future value from NOLs

1. Senior debt redeemed in full January 15, 2023 with proceeds and $6 million cash on hand

5

Attachments

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Disclaimer

Ambac Financial Group Inc. published this content on 01 March 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 01 March 2023 02:54:05 UTC.

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