Who Is Better For The Economy, Trump Or Biden?

Which presidential candidate would be better for business? There’s no clear right or wrong answer, a panel of economists and political analysts said during a webinar on Thursday.

Nasdaq’s webinar on “The Economics Of The 2020 Election” presented a variety of views on who would be more favorable to business in the next four years. But there was some agreement on two main issues.

• Whoever is elected president must prioritize getting the COVID-19 pandemic under control.
• The U.S. economy needs another stimulus in order to jump-start the recovery.

“Fighting COVID-19 aggressively will be the factor in getting the economy going,” said Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq chief economist. “Longer term, it will be about getting the budget under control and how we pay back these wartime levels of debt.”

Both President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden have their weaknesses in certain business areas, said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macrostrategist with TD Securities.

“On the negative side for Biden, parts of his agenda are less favorable for business.  Taxes are one example. New regulations on the energy industry are another. The president has lost credibility in terms of his COVID-19 management. Also, the constant trade wars under this presidency have been a problem for business.”

O’Sullivan predicted a stimulus package is more likely to be passed under a Biden administration than under a Trump administration, but the makeup of a future Senate also is crucial to passage of a stimulus.

Whoever wins the presidential election will have multiple issues to deal with regarding the economy, said Patti Solis Doyle, partner with Brunswick Group.

“First will be economic recovery from the pandemic, getting a vaccine, opening the country slowly and responsibly, getting people back to work and passing a huge stimulus package,” Doyle said. “I think Biden will go big on a big stimulus package. That will help consumers, but not so much on the manufacturing side of the economy.”

Matt Rhoades, co-CEO of CGCN Group sees a slow recovery ahead, which leads to some issues.

“I see the progressive forces becoming stronger and more rebellious,” Rhoades said. “I have big concerns if Biden is elected. I don’t think he’ll have the mandate to hold back some of the forces that exist in the Democratic party. How will he stop some version of the Green New Deal? Does he have the political capital to stand up to those in his own party?”

Adena Friedman, Nasdaq CEO, said that if Biden is elected, she would like to see him focus on getting an infrastructure bill passed and focus on how clean energy can be brought into the broader economy.

“Create jobs, create opportunities and lean in on a future economy,” Friedman said. “He also will have to face some significant issues in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some industries continue to be hard hit. A stimulus could build some bridges to help people through the crisis.”

As for a Trump second term, Friedman predicted continued deregulation of the financial industry and a focus on traditional industrial jobs. She said Trump also would focus on getting an infrastructure bill through Congress and described it as “the one thing that has bipartisan support.”

A COVID-19 vaccine “is the best way” to get the economy back to normal, Friedman said. But she also pointed to improved treatments and a greater knowledge among medical professionals of how to treat the virus. “If we can continue to see progress on the treatment side, that also would help provide more confidence for people to get back together,” she said.

What does a new normal look like? Friedman said she isn’t sure. “It concerns everyone that there’s no certainty. Everyone wants to know what the future will hold. I think we have to recognize right now that we’re in a moment where we have to look at the present moment and look ahead to after this moment.

“What do we need to do to make remote work more sustainable? How do we create safe collaboration capabilities? As for our daily lives, what can we do safely this year? We are looking at what we can do now, so that we can be back to normal this time next year.”

Susan Rupe is managing editor for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at Susan.Rupe@innfeedback.com. Follow her on Twitter @INNsusan.

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