Brokers can’t ignore these three shifts heading into 2026

By Rick Hirsh

The past year brought significant legislative and economic shifts that are changing how employers plan for 2026, and the uncertainty is influencing what employers expect from their broker partner. Three key trends are expected to play a significant role in shaping the benefits landscape next year, and the brokers who understand them now will stay valuable to clients when decisions get harder.

The ‘forever layoff’ cycle will test employer infrastructure

Rick Hirsh

Following 2020, employers engaged in “labor hoarding” to preserve consistent output and hedge against economic shifts. However, as 2025 draws to a close, that posture is fading. Employers are moving toward smaller, more frequent staffing reductions – a trend that some have coined the forever Layoff. In August 2025, there were more than 1 million layoffs across the United States. We can expect companies to continue this behavior as the theme of labor efficiency carries into 2026, especially driven by real or perceived artificial intelligence replacement value.

What does this mean for brokers? The volatility will show up in the operational layer first. When employees move on and off plans more often, billing accuracy becomes harder to maintain, especially when updates hit after carrier cutoffs or across multiple systems. Timing gaps can turn into overpayments, coverage disputes and administrative clean-up that drags into renewal season.

What should brokers do now? Assume volatility is the baseline. Tighten the handoff between workforce changes and benefits updates, and reduce the manual work required to catch errors. The more headcount moves, the more good intentions fall apart without stronger controls.

Will ICHRAs remain favorable?

With health care costs projected to rise again in 2026, employers will continue re-evaluating options like individual coverage health reimbursement arrangements through two lenses: cost and complexity.

In 2024, 4% of firms offering health benefits gave workers funds to purchase nongroup health insurance. That’s meaningful, but also signals ICHRAs are still a minority approach, and employer preferences can shift quickly as market pricing and subsidy dynamics change.

Brokers should prepare for more employers moving between models rather than treating any one approach as permanent. That means being ready to advise on tradeoffs and manage plan transitions without adding burden for human resource and finance teams.

Employers will lean on their brokers for risk management support

Employers are raising the bar for brokers heading into 2026, with a sharper focus on risk support. Employer survey data shows that 94% say they expect strong risk management guidance from their broker, yet only about half believe they’re getting it. That gap matters in a year where cost pressure and volatility are forcing faster decisions. Brokers who bring practical risk direction, rooted in what’s changing in the market and what actions to take next, will hold the most credibility with clients.

Are you ready for 2026?

2026 will be shaped by workforce volatility, shifting benefits preferences and higher expectations for broker expertise. This requires that brokers prepare themselves for unique challenges and embrace adaptability for the future. By staying flexible and proactive, they will position themselves ahead of competitors who may struggle to navigate the evolving landscape.