MGIC Investment Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2012 Results
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Total revenues for the second quarter were
New insurance written in the second quarter was
As of
At
Losses incurred in the second quarter were
Wall Street Bulk transactions, as of
Conference Call and Webcast Details
About MGIC
MGIC (www.mgic.com), the principal subsidiary of
This press release, which includes certain additional statistical and other information, including non-GAAP financial information and a supplement that contains various portfolio statistics are both available on the Company's website at http://mtg.mgic.com/ under Investor Information, Â Press Releases or Presentations/Webcasts.
From time to time
Safe Harbor Statement
Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors:
As used below, "we," "our" and "us" refer to
Our actual results could be affected by the risk factors below. These risk factors should be reviewed in connection with this press release and our periodic reports to the
In addition, the current period financial results included in this press release may be affected by additional information that arises prior to the filing of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended
Regulatory capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis.
The insurance laws of 16 jurisdictions, including
At
Under a statutory accounting principle that became effective
Although we do not meet the Capital Requirements of
MGIC applied for waivers in the other jurisdictions with Capital Requirements and, at this time, has received waivers from five of them, one of which allows a maximum risk-to-capital ratio of 31.5 to 1. One jurisdiction has denied our request for a waiver and two others have either denied our request or are expected to deny our request because their laws do not allow for waivers. We are awaiting a response from seven other jurisdictions, some of which may deny our request.
As part of our longstanding plan to write new business in MIC, a direct subsidiary of MGIC, and pursuant to the OCI Order, MGIC contributed
Under an agreement in place with Fannie Mae, MIC will be eligible to write mortgage insurance through
Under a letter dated
Under a letter dated
Insurance departments, in their sole discretion, may modify, terminate or extend their waivers of Capital Requirements. If an insurance department other than the OCI modifies or terminates its waiver, or if it fails to grant a waiver or renew its waiver after expiration, depending on the circumstances, MGIC could be prevented from writing new business in that particular jurisdiction. Also, depending on the level of losses that MGIC experiences in the future, it is possible that regulatory action by one or more jurisdictions, including those that do not have specific Capital Requirements, may prevent MGIC from continuing to write new insurance in some or all of the jurisdictions in which MIC is not eligible to insure loans purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. If this were to occur, we would need to seek the GSEs' approval to allow MIC to write business in those jurisdictions.
If one GSE does not approve MIC in all jurisdictions that have not waived their Capital Requirements for MGIC, MIC may be able to write insurance on loans that will be sold to the other GSE or retained by private investors. However, because lenders may not know which GSE will purchase their loans until loan origination is complete and mortgage insurance has been procured, lenders may be unwilling to procure mortgage insurance from MIC. Furthermore, if we are unable to write business on a nationwide basis utilizing a combination of MGIC and MIC, lenders may be unwilling to procure insurance from us anywhere.
The OCI, in its sole discretion, may modify, terminate or extend its waiver of Capital Requirements, although any modification or extension of the Keepwell Provision requires our written consent. If the OCI modifies or terminates its waiver, or if it fails to renew its waiver upon expiration, depending on the circumstances, MGIC could be prevented from writing new business in all jurisdictions if MGIC does not comply with the Capital Requirements. If MGIC were prevented from writing new business in all jurisdictions, our insurance operations in MGIC would be in run-off (meaning no new loans would be insured but loans previously insured would continue to be covered, with premiums continuing to be received and losses continuing to be paid on those loans) until MGIC either met the Capital Requirements or obtained a necessary waiver to allow it to once again write new business. Furthermore, if the OCI revokes or fails to renew MGIC's waiver, MIC's ability to write new business would be severely limited because the GSEs' approval of MIC is conditioned upon the continued effectiveness of the OCI Order.
We cannot assure you that we will receive a waiver of all Capital Requirements; that the OCI or any other jurisdiction that has granted a waiver of its Capital Requirements will not modify or revoke the waiver, or will renew the waiver when it expires; or that MGIC could obtain the additional capital necessary to comply with the Capital Requirements. Depending on the circumstances, the amount of additional capital we might need could be substantial. See "— Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debt convert that debt into shares of our common stock." We also cannot assure you that the GSEs will approve MIC to write new business in those jurisdictions in which MGIC is unable.
For more information about factors that could negatively impact our compliance with Capital Requirements, which depending on the severity of adverse outcomes could result in material non-compliance with Capital Requirements, see "— We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future," "— We have reported net losses for the last five years, expect to continue to report annual net losses, and cannot assure you when we will return to profitability" and "— A revised settlement agreement or the outcome of possible litigation may be more costly than the proposed settlement agreement we reached with the
Since mid-2011, two of our competitors,
MGIC's failure to meet the Capital Requirements to insure new business does not necessarily mean that MGIC does not have sufficient resources to pay claims on its insurance liabilities. While we believe that MGIC has sufficient claims paying resources to meet its claim obligations on its insurance in force, even though it does not meet Capital Requirements, we cannot assure you that the events that led to MGIC failing to meet Capital Requirements would not also result in it not having sufficient claims paying resources. Furthermore, our estimates of MGIC's claims paying resources and claim obligations are based on various assumptions. These assumptions include the timing of the receipt of claims on loans in our delinquency inventory and future claims that we anticipate will ultimately be received, our anticipated rescission activity, future housing values and future unemployment rates. These assumptions are subject to inherent uncertainty and require judgment by management. Current conditions in the domestic economy make the assumptions about when anticipated claims will be received, housing values, and unemployment rates highly volatile in the sense that there is a wide range of reasonably possible outcomes. Our anticipated rescission activity is also subject to inherent uncertainty due to the difficulty of predicting the amount of claims that will be rescinded and the outcome of any legal proceedings or settlement discussions related to rescissions that we make, including those with Countrywide. (For more information about the Countrywide legal proceedings, see "— We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future.")
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if the definition of Qualified Residential Mortgage results in a reduction of the number of low down payment loans available to be insured or if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
The financial reform legislation that was passed in
|
Percentage of new risk written |
||||||||
|
Year  2011 |
YTD |
|||||||
|
LTV: |
||||||||
|
80% and under           |
0 |
% |
0 |
% |
||||
|
80.1% - 85% Â |
6 |
% |
6 |
% |
||||
|
85.1% - 90% Â |
41 |
% |
37 |
% |
||||
|
90.1% - 95% Â |
50 |
% |
53 |
% |
||||
|
95.1% - 97% Â |
3 |
% |
4 |
% |
||||
|
> 97% |
0 |
% |
0 |
% |
||||
The regulators also requested public comments regarding an alternative QRM definition, the underwriting requirements of which would allow loans with a maximum LTV of 90% and higher debt-to-income ratios than allowed under the proposed QRM definition, and that may consider mortgage insurance in determining whether the LTV requirement is met. We estimate that approximately 22%Â of our new risk written in each of 2011 and the first six months of 2012 was on loans that would have met the alternative QRM definition.
The regulators also requested that the public comments include information that may be used to assess whether mortgage insurance reduces the risk of default. We submitted a comment letter, including studies to the effect that mortgage insurance reduces the risk of default.
The public comment period for the proposed rule expired on
Depending on, among other things, (a) the final definition of QRM and its requirements for LTV, seller contribution and debt-to-income ratio, (b) to what extent, if any, the presence of mortgage insurance would allow for a higher LTV in the definition of QRM, and (c) whether lenders choose mortgage insurance for non-QRM loans, the amount of new insurance that we write may be materially adversely affected. See also "— If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues."
Alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
- lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the
Federal Housing Administration , or FHA, and theVeterans Administration , - lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring,
- investors using risk mitigation techniques other than private mortgage insurance, using other risk mitigation techniques in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance coverage, or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement, and
- lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage with a 10%, 15% or 20% loan-to-value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20 loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value ratio that has private mortgage insurance.
The FHA substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008. We believe that the FHA's market share increased, in part, because private mortgage insurers tightened their underwriting guidelines (which led to increased utilization of the FHA's programs) and because of increases in the amount of loan level delivery fees that the GSEs assess on loans (which result in higher costs to borrowers). In addition, federal legislation and programs provided the FHA with greater flexibility in establishing new products and increased the FHA's competitive position against private mortgage insurers. However, the FHA's current premium pricing, when compared to our current credit-tiered premium pricing (and considering the effects of GSE pricing changes), may allow us to be more competitive with the FHA than in the recent past for loans with high FICO credit scores. We cannot predict, however, the FHA's share of new insurance written in the future due to, among other factors, different loan eligibility terms between the FHA and the GSEs; future increases in guarantee fees charged by the GSEs,; changes to the FHA's annual premiums that are expected to be phased in over the next two years; and the total profitability that may be realized by mortgage lenders from securitizing loans through
Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
Substantially all of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The business practices of the GSEs affect the entire relationship between them, lenders and mortgage insurers and include:
- the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of the GSEs' charters (which may be changed by federal legislation), when private mortgage insurance is used as the required credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages,
- the amount of loan level delivery fees (which result in higher costs to borrowers) that the GSEs assess on loans that require mortgage insurance,
- whether the GSEs influence the mortgage lender's selection of the mortgage insurer providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that selection,
- the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by the GSEs, which can affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the availability of mortgage loans,
- the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the cancellation thresholds established by law,
- the programs established by the GSEs intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured mortgages and the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must implement such programs,
- the terms that the GSEs require to be included in mortgage insurance policies for loans that they purchase, and
- the extent to which the GSEs intervene in mortgage insurers' rescission practices or rescission settlement practices with lenders. For additional information, see "— Our losses could increase if rescission rates decrease faster than we are projecting, we do not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper or we enter into material resolution arrangements."
In
The GSEs have different loan purchase programs that allow different levels of mortgage insurance coverage. Under the "charter coverage" program, on certain loans lenders may choose a mortgage insurance coverage percentage that is less than the GSEs' "standard coverage" and only the minimum required by the GSEs' charters, with the GSEs paying a lower price for such loans. In 2011 and the first six months of 2012, nearly all of our volume was on loans with GSE standard coverage. We charge higher premium rates for higher coverage percentages. To the extent lenders selling loans to GSEs in the future choose charter coverage for loans that we insure, our revenues would be reduced and we could experience other adverse effects.
MGIC may not continue to meet the GSEs' mortgage insurer eligibility requirements.
The majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, each of which has mortgage insurer eligibility requirements to maintain the highest level of eligibility, including a financial strength rating of Aa3/AA-. Because MGIC does not meet such financial strength rating requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (its financial strength rating from Moody's is B1, with a negative outlook, and from Standard & Poor's is B, with a negative outlook), MGIC is currently operating with each GSE as an eligible insurer under a remediation plan. We believe that the GSEs view remediation plans as a continuing process of interaction with a mortgage insurer and MGIC will continue to operate under a remediation plan for the foreseeable future. There can be no assurance that MGIC will be able to continue to operate as an eligible mortgage insurer under a remediation plan. In particular, the GSEs are currently in discussions with mortgage insurers regarding their standard mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and may make changes to them in the near future that may make them more stringent than the current requirements. The GSEs may include the eligibility requirements, as finally adopted, as part of our current remediation plan. If MGIC ceases to be eligible to insure loans purchased by one or both of the GSEs, it would significantly reduce the volume of our new business writings.
We have reported net losses for the last five years, expect to continue to report annual net losses, and cannot assure you when we will return to profitability.
For the years ended
Our losses could increase if rescission rates decrease faster than we are projecting, we do not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper or we enter into material resolution arrangements.
Historically, rescissions of coverage on loans for which claims have been submitted to us were not a material portion of our claims resolved during a year. However, beginning in 2008, our rescission of coverage on loans has materially mitigated our paid losses. In each of 2009 and 2010, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by approximately
As noted in "— We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future," we are in mediation in an effort to resolve our dispute with Countrywide. In connection with that mediation, we have voluntarily suspended rescissions of coverage related to loans that we believe could be included in a potential resolution. As of
Our loss reserving methodology incorporates the effects we expect rescission activity to have on the losses we expect to pay on our delinquent inventory. Historically, the number of rescissions that we have reversed has been immaterial. A variance between ultimate actual rescission and reversal rates and these estimates, as a result of the outcome of claims investigations, litigation, settlements or other factors, could materially affect our losses. See "— Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves." We estimate rescissions mitigated our incurred losses by approximately
If the insured disputes our right to rescind coverage, the outcome of the dispute ultimately would be determined by legal proceedings. Under our policies, legal proceedings disputing our right to rescind coverage may be brought up to three years after the lender has obtained title to the property (typically through a foreclosure) or the property was sold in a sale that we approved, whichever is applicable, although in a few jurisdictions there is a longer time to bring such an action. For the majority of our rescissions since 2009 that are not subject to a settlement agreement, this period in which a dispute may be brought has not ended. We consider a rescission resolved for financial reporting purposes even though legal proceedings have been initiated and are ongoing. Although it is reasonably possible that, when the proceedings are completed, there will be a determination that we were not entitled to rescind in all cases, we are unable to make a reasonable estimate or range of estimates of the potential liability. Under ASC 450-20, an estimated loss from such proceedings is accrued for only if we determine that the loss is probable and can be reasonably estimated. Therefore, when establishing our loss reserves, we do not include additional loss reserves that would reflect an adverse outcome from ongoing legal proceedings, including those with Countrywide. For more information about these legal proceedings, see "— We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future."
In addition to the proceedings involving Countrywide, we are involved in legal proceedings with respect to rescissions that we do not consider to be collectively material in amount. Although it is reasonably possible that, when these discussions or proceedings are completed, there will be a conclusion or determination that we were not entitled to rescind in all cases, we are unable to make a reasonable estimate or range of estimates of the potential liability.
In 2010, we entered into a settlement agreement with a lender-customer regarding our rescission practices. In
We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future.
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and settlement service providers. Mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have been involved in litigation alleging violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGIC's settlement of class action litigation against it under RESPA became final in
In
In addition, beginning in
Various regulators, including the
We are subject to comprehensive, detailed regulation by state insurance departments. These regulations are principally designed for the protection of our insured policyholders, rather than for the benefit of investors. Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant broad supervisory powers to agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules or exercise discretion affecting almost every significant aspect of the insurance business. Given the recent significant losses incurred by many insurers in the mortgage and financial guaranty industries, our insurance subsidiaries have been subject to heightened scrutiny by insurance regulators. State insurance regulatory authorities could take actions, including changes in capital requirements or termination of waivers of capital requirements, that could have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, we are uncertain whether the
In
In
Five previously-filed purported class action complaints filed against us and several of our executive officers were consolidated in
We understand several law firms have, among other things, issued press releases to the effect that they are investigating us, including whether the fiduciaries of our 401(k) plan breached their fiduciary duties regarding the plan's investment in or holding of our common stock or whether we breached other legal or fiduciary obligations to our shareholders. We intend to defend vigorously any proceedings that may result from these investigations.
With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers and 401(k) plan fiduciaries are entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them.
In
In the arbitration proceeding, we are seeking a determination that MGIC is entitled to rescind coverage on the loans involved in the proceeding. From
We are in mediation in an effort to resolve our dispute with Countrywide, although we cannot predict whether the mediation will result in a resolution. If it does, a resolution with Countrywide will be subject to various conditions before it becomes effective. In connection with our mediation with Countrywide, we have voluntarily suspended rescissions related to loans that we believe could be covered by a potential resolution. As of
If we are not able to reach a resolution with Countrywide, we intend to defend MGIC against any further proceedings arising from Countrywide's complaint and to advocate MGIC's position in the arbitration, vigorously. Although it is reasonably possible that, when the proceedings are completed, there will be a determination that we were not entitled to rescind in all cases, we are unable to make a reasonable estimate or range of estimates of the potential liability. Under ASC 450-20, an estimated loss is accrued for only if we determine that the loss is probable and can be reasonably estimated. Therefore, we have not accrued any reserves that would reflect an adverse outcome in this proceeding. An accrual for an adverse outcome in this (or any other) proceeding would be a reduction to our capital. In this regard, see "— Regulatory capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis."
At
The flow policies at issue with Countrywide are in the same form as the flow policies that we use with all of our customers, and the bulk policies at issue vary from one another, but are generally similar to those used in the majority of our
In addition to the rescissions at issue with Countrywide, we have a substantial pipeline of claims investigations and pre-rescission rebuttals (including those involving loans related to Countrywide) that we expect will eventually result in future rescissions. For additional information about rescissions as well as rescission settlement agreements, see "— Our losses could increase if rescission rates decrease faster than we are projecting, we do not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper or we enter into material resolution arrangements."
MGIC and Freddie Mac disagree on the amount of the aggregate loss limit under certain pool insurance policies insuring Freddie Mac that share a single aggregate loss limit. We believe the initial aggregate loss limit for a particular pool of loans insured under a policy decreases to correspond to the termination of coverage for that pool under that policy while Freddie Mac believes the initial aggregate loss limit remains in effect until the last of the policies that provided coverage for any of the pools terminates. The aggregate loss limit is approximately
On
On
We account for losses under our interpretation of the pool insurance policies although it is reasonably possible that our interpretation will not prevail in the proceedings described above. The differing interpretations had no effect on our results until the second quarter of 2011. For 2011 and the first six months of 2012, our incurred losses would have been
A non-insurance subsidiary of our holding company is a shareholder of the corporation that operates the Mortgage Electronic Registration System ("
In addition to the matters described above, we are involved in other legal proceedings in the ordinary course of business. In our opinion, based on the facts known at this time, the ultimate resolution of these ordinary course legal proceedings will not have a material adverse effect on our financial position or results of operations.
A revised settlement agreement or the outcome of possible litigation may be more costly than the proposed settlement agreement we reached with the
The
We appealed these assessments within the
Because we establish loss reserves only upon a loan default rather than based on estimates of our ultimate losses on risk in force, losses may have a disproportionate adverse effect on our earnings in certain periods.
In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in
Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions that are currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.
We establish reserves using estimated claim rates and claim amounts in estimating the ultimate loss on delinquent loans. The estimated claim rates and claim amounts represent our best estimates of what we will actually pay on the loans in default as of the reserve date and incorporate anticipated mitigation from rescissions. We rescind coverage on loans and deny claims in cases where we believe our policy allows us to do so. Therefore, when establishing our loss reserves, we do not include additional loss reserves that would reflect an adverse development from ongoing dispute resolution proceedings, including those with Countrywide, or from ongoing disagreements over the interpretation of our policies, including those with Freddie Mac related to the computation of the aggregate loss limit under certain pool insurance policies. For more information regarding our legal proceedings with Countrywide and the Freddie Mac disagreement, see "— We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future."
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires judgment by management. Current conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make the assumptions that we use to establish loss reserves more volatile than they would otherwise be. The actual amount of the claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be adversely affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national economic conditions, including unemployment, leading to a reduction in borrowers' income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments, a further drop in housing values that could result in, among other things, greater losses on loans that have pool insurance, and mitigation from rescissions being materially less than assumed. Changes to our estimates could result in material impact to our results of operations, even in a stable economic environment, and there can be no assurance that actual claims paid by us will not be substantially different than our loss reserves.
Loan modification and other similar programs may not continue to provide material benefits to us and our losses on loans that re-default can be higher than what we would have paid had the loan not been modified.
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, the federal government, including through the
One loan modification program is the Home Affordable Modification Program ("HAMP"). Some of HAMP's eligibility criteria relate to the borrower's current income and non-mortgage debt payments. Because the GSEs and servicers do not share such information with us, we cannot determine with certainty the number of loans in our delinquent inventory that are eligible to participate in HAMP. We believe that it could take several months from the time a borrower has made all of the payments during HAMP's three month "trial modification" period for the loan to be reported to us as a cured delinquency.
We rely on information provided to us by the GSEs and servicers. We do not receive all of the information from such sources that is required to determine with certainty the number of loans that are participating in, or have successfully completed, HAMP. We are aware of approximately 9,890 loans in our primary delinquent inventory at
In 2009, the GSEs began offering the Home Affordable Refinance Program ("HARP"). HARP allows borrowers who are not delinquent but who may not otherwise be able to refinance their loans under the current GSE underwriting standards, to refinance their loans. We allow the HARP refinances on loans that we insure, regardless of whether the loan meets our current underwriting standards, and we account for the refinance as a loan modification (even where there is a new lender) rather than new insurance written. To incent lenders to allow more current borrowers to refinance their loans, in
The effect on us of loan modifications depends on how many modified loans subsequently re-default, which in turn can be affected by changes in housing values. Re-defaults can result in losses for us that could be greater than we would have paid had the loan not been modified. At this point, we cannot predict with a high degree of confidence what the ultimate re-default rate will be. In addition, because we do not have information in our database for all of the parameters used to determine which loans are eligible for modification programs, our estimates of the number of loans qualifying for modification programs are inherently uncertain. If legislation is enacted to permit a portion of a borrower's mortgage loan balance to be reduced in bankruptcy and if the borrower re-defaults after such reduction, then the amount we would be responsible to cover would be calculated after adding back the reduction. Unless a lender has obtained our prior approval, if a borrower's mortgage loan balance is reduced outside the bankruptcy context, including in association with a loan modification, and if the borrower re-defaults after such reduction, then under the terms of our policy the amount we would be responsible to cover would be calculated net of the reduction.
Eligibility under certain loan modification programs can also adversely affect us by creating an incentive for borrowers who are able to make their mortgage payments to become delinquent in an attempt to obtain the benefits of a modification. New notices of delinquency increase our incurred losses.
If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low down payment mortgage originations include:
- restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards, liquidity issues and risk-retention requirements associated with non-QRM loans affecting lenders,
- the level of home mortgage interest rates and the deductibility of mortgage interest for income tax purposes,
- the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local economies,
- housing affordability,
- population trends, including the rate of household formation,
- the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance, and
- government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers.
As noted above, the Dodd-Frank Act established the
A decline in the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations could decrease demand for mortgage insurance, decrease our new insurance written and reduce our revenues. Such a decline could be caused by, among other things, the definition of "qualified residential mortgages" by regulators implementing the Dodd-Frank Act. See "— The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if the definition of Qualified Residential Mortgage results in a reduction of the number of low down payment loans available to be insured or if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance."
Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.
As noted above, the FHA substantially increased its market share beginning in 2008. It is difficult to predict the FHA's future market share due to, among other factors, different loan eligibility terms between the FHA and the GSEs, potential increases in guarantee fees charged by the GSEs, changes to the FHA's annual premiums that are expected to be phased in over the next two years, and the total profitability that may be realized by mortgage lenders from securitizing loans through
In recent years, the level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry has been intense as many large mortgage lenders reduced the number of private mortgage insurers with whom they do business. At the same time, consolidation among mortgage lenders has increased the share of the mortgage lending market held by large lenders. During 2011 and the first six months of 2012, approximately 9% and 10% , respectively, of our new insurance written was for loans for which one lender was the original insured, although revenue from such loans was significantly less than 10% of our revenues during each of those periods. Our private mortgage insurance competitors include:
Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation ,United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company ,Radian Guaranty Inc. ,CMG Mortgage Insurance Company , andEssent Guaranty, Inc.
As noted above,
Until 2010 the mortgage insurance industry had not had new entrants in many years. In 2010,
Our relationships with our customers could be adversely affected by a variety of factors, including tightening of and adherence to our underwriting guidelines, which have resulted in our declining to insure some of the loans originated by our customers and rescission of coverage on loans that affect the customer. We have ongoing discussions with lenders who are significant customers regarding their objections to our rescissions. In the fourth quarter of 2009, Countrywide commenced litigation against us as a result of its dissatisfaction with our rescission practices shortly after Countrywide ceased doing business with us. As noted above, the majority of our insurance written is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The FHFA is conservator for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In
We believe some lenders assess a mortgage insurer's financial strength rating as an important element of the process through which they select mortgage insurers. As a result of MGIC's less than investment grade financial strength rating, MGIC may be competitively disadvantaged with these lenders. MGIC's financial strength rating from Moody's is B1, with a negative outlook, and from Standard & Poor's is B with a negative outlook. It is possible that MGIC's financial strength ratings could decline from these levels.
Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in the value of borrowers' homes from their value at the time their loans closed may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrower's ability to continue to make mortgage payments, such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can be sold for an amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale. In general, favorable economic conditions reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient income to pay their mortgages and also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions, including an increase in unemployment, generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not have sufficient income to pay their mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values, which in turn can influence the willingness of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage payments to do so when the mortgage balance exceeds the value of the home. Housing values may decline even absent a deterioration in economic conditions due to declines in demand for homes, which in turn may result from changes in buyers' perceptions of the potential for future appreciation, restrictions on and the cost of mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards, liquidity issues and risk-retention requirements associated with non-QRM loans affecting lenders, higher interest rates generally or changes to the deductibility of mortgage interest for income tax purposes, or other factors. The residential mortgage market in
The mix of business we write also affects the likelihood of losses occurring.
Even when housing values are stable or rising, mortgages with certain characteristics have higher probabilities of claims. These characteristics include loans with loan-to-value ratios over 95% (or in certain markets that have experienced declining housing values, over 90%), FICO credit scores below 620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower documentation, or higher total debt-to-income ratios, as well as loans having combinations of higher risk factors. As of
From time to time, in response to market conditions, we change the types of loans that we insure and the guidelines under which we insure them. In addition, we make exceptions to our underwriting guidelines on a loan-by-loan basis and for certain customer programs. Together, the number of loans for which exceptions were made accounted for fewer than 5% of the loans we insured in 2011 and fewer than 3% of the loans we insured in the first six months of 2012. A large percentage of the exceptions were made for loans with debt-to-income ratios slightly above our guidelines or financial reserves slightly below our guidelines. Beginning in
During the second quarter of 2012, we began writing a portion of our new insurance under an endorsement to our master policy that limits our ability to rescind coverage on loans that meet the conditions in that endorsement, which is filed as Exhibit 99.7 to our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended
As of
Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our underwriting and pricing models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment income will be adequate to compensate for actual losses even under our current underwriting guidelines. We do, however, believe that given the various changes in our underwriting guidelines that were effective beginning in the first quarter of 2008, our insurance written beginning in the second quarter of 2008 will generate underwriting profits.
The premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We set premiums at the time a policy is issued based on our expectations regarding likely performance over the long-term. Our premiums are subject to approval by state regulatory agencies, which can delay or limit our ability to increase our premiums. Generally, we cannot cancel the mortgage insurance coverage or adjust renewal premiums during the life of a mortgage insurance policy. As a result, higher than anticipated claims generally cannot be offset by premium increases on policies in force or mitigated by our non-renewal or cancellation of insurance coverage. The premiums we charge, and the associated investment income, may not be adequate to compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the insurance coverage provided to customers. An increase in the number or size of claims, compared to what we anticipate, could adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition.
In
We continue to experience material losses, especially on the 2006 and 2007 books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on general economic conditions, including unemployment, and the direction of home prices, which in turn will be influenced by general economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or general economic conditions with confidence, there is significant uncertainty surrounding what our ultimate losses will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these books will continue to generate material incurred and paid losses for a number of years. There can be no assurance that an additional premium deficiency reserve on Wall Street Bulk or on other portions of our insurance portfolio will not be required.
It is uncertain what effect the extended timeframes in the foreclosure process, due to moratoriums, suspensions or issues arising from the investigation of servicers' foreclosure procedures, will have on us.
In response to the significant increase in the number of foreclosures that began in 2009, various government entities and private parties have from time to time enacted foreclosure (or equivalent) moratoriums and suspensions (which we collectively refer to as moratoriums). In
Past moratoriums or delays were designed to afford time to determine whether loans could be modified and did not stop the accrual of interest or affect other expenses on a loan, and we cannot predict whether any future moratorium or lengthened timeframes would do so. Therefore, unless a loan is cured during a moratorium or delay, at the completion of a foreclosure, additional interest and expenses may be due to the lender from the borrower. In some circumstances, our paid claim amount may include some additional interest and expenses. For moratoriums or delays resulting from investigations into servicers and other parties' actions in foreclosure proceedings, our willingness to pay additional interest and expenses may be different, subject to the terms of our mortgage insurance policies. The various moratoriums and extended timeframes may temporarily delay our receipt of claims and may increase the length of time a loan remains in our delinquent loan inventory.
We do not know what effect improprieties that may have occurred in a particular foreclosure have on the validity of that foreclosure, once it was completed and the property transferred to the lender. Under our policy, in general, completion of a foreclosure is a condition precedent to the filing of a claim. Beginning in 2011 and from time to time, various courts have ruled that servicers did not provide sufficient evidence that they were the holders of the mortgages and therefore they lacked authority to foreclose. Some courts in other jurisdictions have considered similar issues and reached similar conclusions, but other courts have reached different conclusions. These decisions have not had a direct impact on our claims processes or rescissions.
We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. Over the last several years, the mortgage loan servicing industry has experienced consolidation. The resulting reduction in the number of servicers could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. In addition, current housing market trends have led to significant increases in the number of delinquent mortgage loans requiring servicing. These increases have strained the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to undertake mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses, and have resulted in an increasing amount of delinquent loan servicing being transferred to specialty servicers. The transfer of servicing can cause a disruption in the servicing of delinquent loans. Future housing market conditions could lead to additional increases in delinquencies. Managing a substantially higher volume of non-performing loans could lead to increased disruptions in the servicing of mortgages. Investigations into whether servicers have acted improperly in foreclosure proceedings may further strain the resources of servicers.
If interest rates decline, house prices appreciate or mortgage insurance cancellation requirements change, the length of time that our policies remain in force could decline and result in declines in our revenue.
In each year, most of our premiums are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in force, which is also generally referred to as persistency, is a significant determinant of our revenues. The factors affecting the length of time our insurance remains in force include:
- the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on the insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the insurance in force to refinancings, and
- mortgage insurance cancellation policies of mortgage investors along with the current value of the homes underlying the mortgages in the insurance in force.
Our persistency rate was 81.4% at
Your ownership in our company may be diluted by additional capital that we raise or if the holders of our outstanding convertible debt convert that debt into shares of our common stock.
As noted above under "— Regulatory capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis," we may be required to raise additional equity capital. Any such future sales would dilute your ownership interest in our company. In addition, the market price of our common stock could decline as a result of sales of a large number of shares or similar securities in the market or the perception that such sales could occur.
We have
Our debt obligations materially exceed our holding company cash and investments
At
The Senior Notes, Convertible Senior Notes and Convertible Junior Debentures are obligations of our holding company,
We could be adversely affected if personal information on consumers that we maintain is improperly disclosed.
As part of our business, we maintain large amounts of personal information on consumers. While we believe we have appropriate information security policies and systems to prevent unauthorized disclosure, there can be no assurance that unauthorized disclosure, either through the actions of third parties or employees, will not occur. Unauthorized disclosure could adversely affect our reputation and expose us to material claims for damages.
The implementation of the Basel II capital accord, or other changes to our customers' capital requirements, may discourage the use of mortgage insurance.
In 1988, the
In
Our Australian operations may suffer significant losses.
We began international operations in
|
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES |
|||||||||
|
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS |
|||||||||
|
Three Months Ended |
Six Months Ended June 30, |
||||||||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2012 |
2011 |
||||||
|
(Unaudited) |
|||||||||
|
 (In thousands, except per share data) |
|||||||||
|
Net premiums written |
$ Â Â 238,605 |
$ Â Â 270,399 |
$ Â Â Â Â 493,591 |
$ Â Â 544,862 |
|||||
|
Net premiums earned |
$ Â Â 242,628 |
$ Â Â 284,454 |
$ Â Â Â Â 505,033 |
$ Â Â 573,000 |
|||||
|
Investment income |
32,178 |
55,490 |
69,586 |
112,033 |
|||||
|
Realized gains, net |
26,611 |
21,734 |
104,172 |
27,495 |
|||||
|
Total other-than-temporary impairment losses |
(339) |
- |
(339) |
- |
|||||
|
Portion of loss recognized in other comprehensive |
|||||||||
|
income (loss), before taxes |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||
|
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings |
(339) |
- |
(339) |
- |
|||||
|
Other revenue |
20,012 |
5,329 |
22,321 |
7,592 |
|||||
|
 Total revenues |
321,090 |
367,007 |
700,773 |
720,120 |
|||||
|
Losses and expenses: |
|||||||||
|
Losses incurred |
551,408 |
459,552 |
888,496 |
769,983 |
|||||
|
Change in premium deficiency reserve |
(27,358) |
(11,035) |
(41,541) |
(20,053) |
|||||
|
Underwriting and other expenses, net |
48,910 |
54,043 |
99,253 |
111,593 |
|||||
|
Interest expense |
24,912 |
26,326 |
49,539 |
52,368 |
|||||
|
Total losses and expenses |
597,872 |
528,886 |
995,747 |
913,891 |
|||||
|
Loss before tax |
(276,782) |
(161,879) |
(294,974) |
(193,771) |
|||||
|
Benefit from income taxes |
(2,891) |
(10,147) |
(1,528) |
(8,378) |
|||||
|
Net Loss |
$ Â (273,891) |
$ Â Â (151,732) |
$ Â Â Â (293,446) |
$ Â Â (185,393) |
|||||
|
Diluted weighted average common shares |
|||||||||
|
outstanding |
202,013 |
201,097 |
201,770 |
200,921 |
|||||
|
Diluted loss per share |
$ Â Â Â Â (1.36) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (0.75) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â (1.45) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (0.92) |
|||||
|
NOTE: See "Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains and losses. |
|||||||||
|
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES |
|||||||||
|
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AS OF |
|||||||||
|
|
|
June 30, |
|||||||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2011 |
|||||||
|
(Unaudited) |
|||||||||
|
(In thousands, except per share data) |
|||||||||
|
ASSETS |
|||||||||
|
Investments (1) |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
563,145 |
995,799 |
1,038,568 |
||||||
|
Reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves (2) |
126,832 |
154,607 |
206,170 |
||||||
|
Prepaid reinsurance premiums |
1,349 |
1,617 |
1,962 |
||||||
|
Home office and equipment, net |
27,290 |
28,145 |
28,962 |
||||||
|
Deferred insurance policy acquisition costs |
9,530 |
7,505 |
7,970 |
||||||
|
Other assets |
188,816 |
204,910 |
239,655 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY |
|||||||||
|
Liabilities: |
|||||||||
|
Loss reserves (2) |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Unearned premiums |
143,187 |
154,866 |
186,985 |
||||||
|
Premium deficiency reserve |
93,276 |
134,817 |
158,913 |
||||||
|
Senior notes |
99,872 |
170,515 |
321,621 |
||||||
|
Convertible senior notes |
345,000 |
345,000 |
345,000 |
||||||
|
Convertible junior debentures |
361,165 |
344,422 |
329,330 |
||||||
|
Other liabilities |
300,323 |
312,283 |
332,125 |
||||||
|
Total liabilities |
5,451,413 |
6,019,415 |
6,756,876 |
||||||
|
Shareholders' equity |
867,223 |
1,196,815 |
1,512,860 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
Book value per share (3) |
|
|
|
||||||
|
(1) Investments include net unrealized gains on securities |
82,961 |
120,087 |
125,636 |
||||||
|
(2) Loss reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
3,981,758 |
4,402,905 |
4,876,732 |
||||||
|
(3) Shares outstanding |
202,032 |
201,172 |
201,147 |
||||||
Â
|
CERTAIN NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURESÂ |
|||||||||
|
Three Months Ended |
Six Months Ended June 30, |
||||||||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2012 |
2011 |
||||||
|
(Unaudited) |
|||||||||
|
(In thousands, except per share data) |
|||||||||
|
Diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains (losses): |
|||||||||
|
Realized gains and impairment losses |
$ Â Â Â 26,272 |
$ Â Â Â Â 21,734 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 103,833 |
$ Â Â Â Â 27,495 |
|||||
|
Income taxes at 35% (1) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||||
|
After tax realized gains |
26,272 |
21,734 |
103,833 |
27,495 |
|||||
|
Weighted average shares |
202,013 |
201,097 |
201,770 |
200,921 |
|||||
|
Diluted EPS contribution from realized gains and |
|||||||||
|
impairment losses |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.13 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.11 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.51 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.14 |
|||||
| <br /> | |||||||||
|
(1) |
Due to the establishment of a valuation allowance, income taxes provided are not currently affected by realized gains or losses. |
||||||||
|
Management believes the diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains or losses provides useful information to investors because it shows the after-tax effect of these items, which can be discretionary. |
|||||||||
Â
|
 Q1 2011 |
 Q2 2011 |
 Q3 2011 |
 Q4 2011 |
 Q1 2012 |
 Q2 2012 |
|||||||
|
New primary insurance written (NIW) (billions) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 5.9 |
||||||
|
New primary risk written (billions) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.5 |
||||||
|
Product mix as a % of primary flow NIW |
||||||||||||
|
   >95% LTVs |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
||||||
|
   ARMs |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
||||||
|
   Refinances |
37% |
16% |
20% |
39% |
42% |
32% |
||||||
|
Primary Insurance In Force (IIF) (billions) (1) |
$ Â Â Â 186.9 |
$ Â Â Â 182.4 |
$ Â Â Â 179.0 |
$ Â Â Â 172.9 |
$ Â Â Â 169.0 |
$ Â Â Â 166.7 |
||||||
|
    Flow |
$ Â Â Â 164.3 |
$ Â Â Â 160.9 |
$ Â Â Â 158.3 |
$ Â Â Â 153.5 |
$ Â Â Â 150.3 |
$ Â Â Â 148.6 |
||||||
|
    Bulk |
$ Â Â Â Â 22.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â 21.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 20.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 19.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â 18.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 18.1 |
||||||
|
) |
$ Â Â Â 156.4 |
$ Â Â Â 153.3 |
$ Â Â Â 150.9 |
$ Â Â Â 146.3 |
$ Â Â Â 143.5 |
$ Â Â Â 142.3 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
$ Â Â Â Â 10.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â 10.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â 10.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 9.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 9.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 8.9 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.4 |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ Â Â Â Â 16.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 16.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â 15.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 14.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 13.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 13.1 |
||||||
|
Annual Persistency |
83.7% |
83.3% |
83.7% |
82.9% |
82.2% |
81.4% |
||||||
|
Primary Risk In Force (RIF) (billions) (1) |
$ Â Â Â Â 47.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â 44.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 43.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 42.9 |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
$ Â Â Â Â 39.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â 38.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 38.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 37.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â 36.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 36.2 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.4 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.7 |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.6 |
||||||
|
RIF by FICO |
||||||||||||
|
   FICO 620 & > |
91.4% |
91.5% |
91.5% |
91.5% |
91.7% |
91.9% |
||||||
|
   FICO 575 - 619 |
6.7% |
6.6% |
6.6% |
6.6% |
6.4% |
6.3% |
||||||
|
   FICO < 575 |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
||||||
|
Average Coverage Ratio (RIF/IIF) (1) |
||||||||||||
|
    Total |
25.6% |
25.6% |
25.7% |
25.7% |
25.7% |
25.8% |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
25.3% |
25.3% |
25.4% |
25.4% |
25.4% |
25.5% |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
27.1% |
27.1% |
27.2% |
27.3% |
27.3% |
27.4% |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
28.7% |
28.8% |
28.8% |
28.9% |
28.9% |
28.9% |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
27.2% |
27.1% |
27.3% |
<p style="MARGIN: 0in" class="prnews_p">27.2% |
27.3% |
27.2% |
||||||
|
Average |
||||||||||||
|
    Total IIF |
$ Â Â 156.01 |
$ Â Â 156.22 |
$ Â Â 156.79 |
$ Â Â 158.59 |
$ Â Â 158.89 |
$ Â Â 159.59 |
||||||
|
    Flow |
$ Â Â 154.70 |
$ Â Â 155.13 |
$ Â Â 155.72 |
$ Â Â 157.87 |
$ Â Â 158.28 |
$ Â Â 159.20 |
||||||
|
    Bulk |
$ Â Â 166.25 |
$ Â Â 164.89 |
$ Â Â 165.42 |
$ Â Â 164.55 |
$ Â Â 163.99 |
$ Â Â 162.80 |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
$ Â Â 155.55 |
$ Â Â 156.03 |
$ Â Â 156.55 |
$ Â Â 158.87 |
$ Â Â 159.29 |
$ Â Â 160.26 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
$ Â Â 129.97 |
$ Â Â 129.57 |
$ Â Â 130.60 |
$ Â Â 130.70 |
$ Â Â 130.37 |
$ Â Â 129.86 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ Â Â 117.09 |
<span style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 8pt" class="prnews_span">$ Â Â 116.73 |
$ Â Â 120.73 |
$ Â Â 121.13 |
$ Â Â 120.98 |
$ Â Â 120.65 |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ Â Â 197.27 |
$ Â Â 195.71 |
$ Â Â 196.26 |
$ Â Â 194.06 |
$ Â Â 193.54 |
$ Â Â 192.23 |
||||||
| </td> | ||||||||||||
|
Primary IIF - # of loans (1) |
1,197,950 |
1,167,476 |
1,141,442 |
1,090,086 |
1,063,797 |
1,044,342 |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
1,005,244 |
982,658 |
964,011 |
921,112 |
901,300 |
887,967 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
83,062 |
80,231 |
77,548 |
74,036 |
71,250 |
68,538 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
23,647 |
22,958 |
22,252 |
<p style="MARGIN: 0in" class="prnews_p">21,391 |
20,633 |
20,003 |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
85,997 |
81,629 |
77,631 |
73,547 |
70,614 |
67,834 |
||||||
|
 Q1 2011 |
 Q2 2011 |
 Q3 2011 |
 Q4 2011 |
 Q1 2012 |
 Q2 2012 |
|||||||
|
Primary IIF - Delinquent Roll Forward - # of Loans |
||||||||||||
|
    Beginning Delinquent Inventory |
214,724 |
195,885 |
184,452 |
180,894 |
175,639 |
160,473 |
||||||
|
    Plus: New Notices |
43,195 |
39,972 |
44,342 |
41,796 |
34,781 |
32,241 |
||||||
|
    Less: Cures |
(45,639) |
(35,832) |
(34,335) |
(33,837) |
(37,144) |
(26,368) |
||||||
|
    Less: Paids (including those charged to a deductible or captive) |
(13,466) |
(13,553) |
(12,033) |
(12,086) |
(11,909) |
(11,738) |
||||||
|
    Less: Rescissions and denials (6) |
(2,929) |
(2,020) |
(1,532) |
(1,128) |
(894) |
(618) |
||||||
|
    Ending Delinquent Inventory |
195,885 |
184,452 |
180,894 |
175,639 |
160,473 |
153,990 |
||||||
|
Primary claim received inventory included in ending delinquent inventory (6) |
17,686 |
14,504 |
13,799 |
12,610 |
12,758 |
13,421 |
||||||
|
Composition of Cures |
||||||||||||
|
 Reported delinquent and cured intraquarter |
14,340 |
8,996 |
10,240 |
9,333 |
11,353 |
7,104 |
||||||
|
 Number of payments delinquent prior to cure |
||||||||||||
|
     3 payments or less |
18,438 |
14,457 |
12,663 |
13,883 |
16,523 |
11,875 |
||||||
|
     4-11 payments |
8,861 |
7,952 |
6,840 |
6,298 |
6,277 |
5,349 |
||||||
|
     12 payments or more |
4,000 |
4,427 |
4,592 |
4,323 |
2,991 |
2,040 |
||||||
|
 Total Cures in Quarter |
45,639 |
35,832 |
34,335 |
33,837 |
37,144 |
26,368 |
||||||
|
Composition of Paids |
||||||||||||
|
 Number of payments delinquent at time of claim payment |
||||||||||||
|
     3 payments or less |
14 |
26 |
55 |
38 |
44 |
50 |
||||||
|
     4-11 payments |
1,663 |
1,848 |
1,317 |
1,600 |
1,776 |
1,840 |
||||||
|
     12 payments or more |
11,789 |
11,679 |
10,661 |
10,448 |
10,089 |
9,848 |
||||||
|
 Total Paids in Quarter |
13,466 |
13,553 |
12,033 |
12,086 |
11,909 |
11,738 |
||||||
|
Aging of Primary Delinquent Inventory |
||||||||||||
|
 Consecutive months in default |
||||||||||||
|
     3 months or less |
27,744 |
14% |
30,107 |
16% |
33,167 |
18% |
31,456 |
18% |
22,516 |
14% |
24,488 |
16% |
|
     4-11 months |
57,319 |
29% |
48,148 |
26% |
45,110 |
25% |
46,352 |
26% |
45,552 |
28% |
38,400 |
25% |
|
     12 months or more |
110,822 |
57% |
106,197 |
58% |
102,617 |
57% |
97,831 |
56% |
92,405 |
58% |
91,102 |
59% |
|
 Number of payments delinquent |
||||||||||||
|
     3 payments or less |
40,680 |
21% |
40,968 |
22% |
43,312 |
24% |
42,804 |
24% |
33,579 |
|
33,677 |
22% |
|
     4-11 payments |
61,060 |
31% |
51,523 |
28% |
47,929 |
26% |
47,864 |
27% |
45,539 |
28% |
39,744 |
26% |
|
     12 payments or more |
94,145 |
48% |
91,961 |
50% |
89,653 |
50% |
84,971 |
49% |
81,355 |
51% |
80,569 |
52% |
|
Primary IIF - # of Delinquent Loans (1) |
195,885 |
184,452 |
180,894 |
175,639 |
160,473 |
153,990 |
||||||
|
    Flow |
147,267 |
139,032 |
137,084 |
134,101 |
121,959 |
116,798 |
||||||
|
    Bulk |
48,618 |
45,420 |
43,810 |
41,538 |
38,514 |
37,192 |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
123,046 |
115,980 |
114,828 |
112,403 |
102,884 |
98,447 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
28,073 |
26,878 |
26,600 |
25,989 |
23,002 |
22,428 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
10,053 |
9,725 |
9,562 |
9,326 |
8,434 |
8,175 |
||||||
|
34,713 |
31,869 |
29,904 |
27,921 |
26,153 |
24,940 |
|||||||
|
Primary IIF Delinquency Rates (1) |
16.35% |
15.80% |
15.85% |
16.11% |
15.09% |
14.75% |
||||||
|
    Flow |
13.87% |
13.40% |
13.49% |
13.79% |
12.84% |
12.51% |
||||||
|
    Bulk |
35.81% |
34.91% |
35.02% |
35.33% |
33.82% |
33.50% |
||||||
| <br /> | ||||||||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
12.24% |
11.80% |
11.91% |
12.20% |
11.42% |
11.09% |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
33.80% |
33.50% |
34.30% |
35.10% |
32.28% |
32.72% |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
42.51% |
42.36% |
42.97% |
43.60% |
40.88% |
40.87% |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
40.37% |
39.04% |
38.52% |
37.96% |
37.04% |
36.77% |
||||||
|
 Q1 2011 |
 Q2 2011 |
 Q3 2011 |
 Q4 2011 |
 Q1 2012 |
 Q2 2012 |
|||||||
|
Reserves |
||||||||||||
|
 Primary |
||||||||||||
|
     Direct Loss Reserves (millions) |
$ Â Â Â 4,766 |
$ Â Â Â 4,504 |
$ Â Â Â 4,403 |
$ Â Â Â 4,249 |
$ Â Â Â 3,985 |
$ Â Â Â 3,934 |
||||||
|
     Average Direct Reserve Per Default |
$ Â Â 24,331 |
$ Â Â 24,416 |
$ Â Â 24,342 |
$ Â Â 24,193 |
$ Â Â 24,835 |
$ Â Â 25,547 |
||||||
|
 Pool |
||||||||||||
|
     Direct Loss Reserves (millions) |
$ Â Â Â Â 697 |
$ Â Â Â Â 570 |
$ Â Â Â Â 379 |
$ Â Â Â Â 299 |
$ Â Â Â Â 216 |
$ Â Â Â Â 168 |
||||||
|
     Ending Delinquent Inventory |
40,769 |
36,552 |
33,792 |
32,971 |
26,601 |
25,178 |
||||||
|
     Pool claim received inventory included in ending delinquent inventory |
2,615 |
1,836 |
1,345 |
1,398 |
893 |
1,154 |
||||||
|
 Other Gross Reserves (millions) (5) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 10 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 10 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7 |
||||||
|
Net Paid Claims (millions) (1) (2) |
$ Â Â Â Â 687 |
$ Â Â Â Â 818 |
$ Â Â Â Â 751 |
$ Â Â Â Â 704 |
$ Â Â Â Â 673 |
$ Â Â Â Â 636 |
||||||
|
    Flow |
$ Â Â Â Â 540 |
$ Â Â Â Â 562 |
$ Â Â Â Â 475 |
$ Â Â Â Â 484 |
$ Â Â Â Â 459 |
$ Â Â Â Â 466 |
||||||
|
    Bulk |
$ Â Â Â Â 106 |
$ Â Â Â Â 115 |
$ Â Â Â Â 137 |
$ Â Â Â Â 135 |
$ Â Â Â Â 124 |
$ Â Â Â Â 113 |
||||||
|
    Pool - with aggregate loss limits |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 69 |
$ Â Â Â Â 167 |
$ Â Â Â Â 138 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 90 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 95 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 64 |
||||||
|
    Pool - without aggregate loss limits |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â 3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â 6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6 |
||||||
|
    Reinsurance |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (48) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (44) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (20) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (28) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (24) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (25) |
||||||
|
    Other (5) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 17 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 15 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 15 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 19 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 15 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 12 |
||||||
|
    Reinsurance terminations (2) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â (1) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â (2) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â (36) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
$ Â Â Â Â 451 |
$ Â Â Â Â 472 |
$ Â Â Â Â 419 |
$ Â Â Â Â 430 |
$ Â Â Â Â 408 |
$ Â Â Â Â 402 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 76 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 77 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 68 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 62 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 64 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 63 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 19 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 20 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 17 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 14 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 18 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 18 |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ Â Â Â Â 100 |
$ Â Â Â Â 108 |
$ Â Â Â Â 108 |
$ Â Â Â Â 113 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 93 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 96 |
||||||
|
Primary Average Claim Payment (thousands) (1) |
$ Â Â Â Â 47.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 49.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 50.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 51.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â 48.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 49.3 |
||||||
|
    Flow |
$ Â Â Â Â 45.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 47.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 48.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â 48.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.8 |
||||||
|
    Bulk |
$ Â Â Â Â 61.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 62.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 64.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â 64.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 62.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â 63.2 |
||||||
|
    Prime (620 & >) |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 48.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 49.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 49.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â 47.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â 47.6 |
||||||
|
    A minus (575 - 619) |
$ Â Â Â Â 43.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â 44.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 44.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 44.6 |
||||||
|
    Sub-Prime (< 575) |
$ Â Â Â Â 42.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â 46.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 43.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 40.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 44.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 44.4 |
||||||
|
    Reduced Doc (All FICOs) |
$ Â Â Â Â 61.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 63.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â 63.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 66.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â 62.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â 64.3 |
||||||
|
Risk sharing Arrangements - Flow Only |
||||||||||||
|
   % insurance inforce subject to risk sharing |
17.2% |
16.8% |
14.4% |
13.8% |
13.1% |
12.7% |
||||||
|
   % Quarterly NIW subject to risk sharing |
5.3% |
4.8% |
5.6% |
5.3% |
5.4% |
5.6% |
||||||
|
   Premium ceded (millions) |
$ Â Â Â Â 13.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â 13.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â 11.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 9.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 9.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 8.7 |
||||||
|
   Captive trust fund assets (millions) (2) |
$ Â Â Â Â 486 |
$ Â Â Â Â 451 |
$ Â Â Â Â 392 |
$ Â Â Â Â 386 |
$ Â Â Â Â 371 |
$ Â Â Â Â 360 |
||||||
|
Captive Reinsurance Ceded Losses Incurred - Flow Only (millions) |
$ Â Â Â Â 11.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â 12.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â 17.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â 15.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 13.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â 12.2 |
||||||
|
 Active excess of Loss |
||||||||||||
|
     Book Year |
||||||||||||
|
2005 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.2 |
||||||
|
2006 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
||||||
|
2007 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.8 |
||||||
|
2008 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.8 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.5 |
||||||
|
 Active quota Share |
||||||||||||
|
     Book Year |
||||||||||||
|
2005 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.2 |
||||||
|
2006 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.4 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.0 |
||||||
|
2007 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.0 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 2.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.2 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 4.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 3.4 |
||||||
|
2008 |
$ Â Â Â Â (0.2) |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.5 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 1.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.6 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.9 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.3 |
||||||
|
2009 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.1 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
||||||
|
 Terminated agreements |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.3 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â 0.7 |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
$ Â Â Â Â Â Â - |
||||||
|
 Q1 2011 |
 Q2 2011 |
 Q3 2011 |
 Q4 2011 |
 Q1 2012 |
 Q2 2012 |
|||||||
|
Direct Pool RIF (millions) |
||||||||||||
|
   With aggregate loss limits |
$ Â Â Â 1,078 |
$ Â Â Â Â 905 |
$ Â Â Â Â 770 |
$ Â Â Â Â 674 |
$ Â Â Â Â 569 |
$ Â Â Â Â 508 |
||||||
|
   Without aggregate loss limits |
$ Â Â Â 1,398 |
$ Â Â Â 1,324 |
$ Â Â Â 1,260 |
$ Â Â Â 1,177 |
$ Â Â Â 1,092 |
$ Â Â Â 1,024 |
||||||
|
|
19.7:1 |
20.4:1 |
22.2:1 |
20.3:1 |
20.3:1 |
27.8:1 |
(3) |
|||||
|
Combined Insurance Companies - Risk to Capital |
23.0:1 |
23.4:1 |
24.0:1 |
22.2:1 |
22.2:1 |
30.0:1 |
(3) |
|||||
|
GAAP loss ratio (insurance operations only) (4) |
107.6% |
161.6% |
168.2% |
174.8% |
128.5% |
227.3% |
||||||
|
GAAP underwriting expense ratio (insurance operations only) |
16.2% |
16.5% |
16.4% |
14.9% |
16.7% |
16.6% |
||||||
|
Note: The FICO credit score for a loan with multiple borrowers is the lowest of the borrowers' "decision FICO scores." A borrower's "decision FICO score" is determined as follows: if there are three FICO scores available, the middle FICO score is used; if two FICO scores are available, the lower of the two is used; if only one FICO score is available, it is used. |
||||||||||||
|
Note: During the 4th quarter of 2011 and the 1st quarter of 2012 we conducted a review of our single premium life of loan policies and concluded that approximately 21,000 of these policies were no longer in force, and as a result we canceled these policies with insurance in force of approximately |
||||||||||||
|
Note:Â The results of our operations in |
||||||||||||
|
(1) In accordance with industry practice, loans approved by GSE and other automated underwriting (AU) systems under "doc waiver" programs that do not require verification of borrower income are classified by MGIC as "full doc." Based in part on information provided by the GSEs, MGIC estimates full doc loans of this type were approximately 4% of 2007 NIW. Information for other periods is not available. MGIC understands these AU systems grant such doc waivers for loans they judge to have higher credit quality. MGIC also understands that the GSEs terminated their "doc waiver" programs in the second half of 2008. Reduced documentation loans only appear in the reduced documentation category and do not appear in any of the other categories. |
||||||||||||
|
(2) Net paid claims, as presented, does not include amounts received in conjunction with termination of reinsurance agreements. In a termination, the agreement is cancelled, with no future premium ceded and funds for any incurred but unpaid losses transferred to us. The transferred funds result in an increase in the investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents) and there is a corresponding decrease in reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves. This results in an increase in net loss reserves, which is offset by a decrease in net losses paid. |
||||||||||||
|
(3)Â Preliminary |
||||||||||||
|
(4)Â As calculated, does not reflect any effects due to premium deficiency. |
||||||||||||
|
(5)Â Includes Australian operations |
||||||||||||
|
(6) Refer to our risk factor titled "Our losses could increase if rescission rates decrease faster than we are projecting, we do not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper or we enter into material resolution arrangements" above for information about our suspension of certain rescissions and the number of rescissions suspended as of |
||||||||||||
Â
SOURCE
| Wordcount: | 22276 |



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