Will state insurance market woes hurt DeSantis?

Gov. Ron DeSantis said in May that luring new insurance companies to Florida would be the "telltale" signal for whether special session-approved property and casualty reforms were working.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian's crushing blow to Southwest Florida, pollsters, strategists and political rivals are looking for a different set of telltale signs – whether Florida voters will punish the governor with the state's property insurance market on the brink of another collapse.

Maybe, maybe not.

"There will be a lot of finger-pointing. There's plenty of blame to go around for why we are where we are in Florida," said former state lawmaker Tom Lee, a Republican who served as Senate President during the insurance crisis in the mid-2000s prompted by the 2004 and 2005 storm seasons. "Someone's going to have to do a very good job laying the blame on a particular politician."

Even before Ian, which may have wreaked between $25 billion and $40 billion in damage, the state's property insurance market was in free fall.

Focused on culture wars

In July, two months after the special session, state insurance regulators placed 27 companies on a watch list over concerns they were not financially stable. On Sept. 23, while the monster storm was still brewing in the Caribbean, FedNat Insurance Co. became the sixth company to go insolvent this year in Florida.

Now, in Ian's wake, insurance industry analysts and others are warning of more sharp increases in insurance premiums for Floridians. That's on top of the already costly average annual insurance policy in the Sunshine State – $4,231 – one that is three times the national average.

DeSantis was on defense no sooner than had Ian moved on to the Carolinas.

The governor cited Florida's budgetary strength, including a $20 billion surplus, saying the state has "financial wherewithal right now" when asked if he has concerns about how the insurance industry would fare in Ian.

He praised the actions taken during the special session in May, including allocating $2 billion "into a fund to provide a backstop" to keep more insurers from going out of business.

"Clearly, there's other things legislatively I would like to see done," DeSantis insisted. "I think we will get that done soon. But this is something that we will respond to."

And that's where some say the governor's vulnerability comes in.

DeSantis has spent much of the past two years placating the far right with culture-war legislation, such as the "Stop Woke Act" and the Parental rights in Education Bill, which was labeled the "Don't Say Gay" legislation.

During the special session in May, DeSantis' focus often was on an unrelated topic: punishing the Walt Disney Co. for its opposition to the education bill by stripping Disney World of its special taxing district.

While the governor's focus was elsewhere, others point out, wave after wave of Floridians had their policies canceled. State-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp. is closing in on an alarming 1.1 million policies statewide, almost 300,000 more since Sept. 30, 2021.

Insurance disaster in campaigns

Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political science professor, said that as the the property insurance issue begins to "rear its ugly head," it could potentially make DeSantis more vulnerable.

"It's (homeowner's insurance) clearly not been his high priority," Jewett said.

By contrast, Jewett added, Democrat Charlie Crist has harped on property insurance issues and unaffordable housing in Florida throughout his entire campaign. They have been among his main stump-speech talking points and are addressed in his ads.

"When governors face a crisis, voters expect them to act," Jewett said. If Crist can craft an effective message to voters to raise concerns about property insurance, then he could have an edge on DeSantis, he said.

Democrats put it in starker, sharper tones.

"DeSantis has done nothing," according to Juan Penalosa, a former Florida Democratic Party official who is now a strategist.

Now, Crist needs to show voters that Republicans in the past decade have done little to tackle the problem, and that he has a solution, Penalosa said.

"By comparison, you look at the track records of those running against them (Republicans), particularly Charlie Crist, and they do have an excellent track record of addressing this unique problem in the state," Penalosa said.

Last week, Crist pummeled DeSantis as Ian's carnage in Southwest Florida became apparent.

"We have the highest property insurance rates in the United States of America because of the lack of leadership we have at the top here in Florida right now," Crist said.

Crist pointed out that his campaign platform has been centered around housing affordability for Florida residents, including lowering insurance rates. Throughout this year's gubernatorial run, Crist has talked up his seven-point plan to tackle homeowner's insurance issues.

He also lauds what he said was an achievement during his single term in office, from 2007 to 2011, which was in the wake of a two-year streak of storms, from Frances to Wilma, that also rocked Florida's frail insurance safety net.

Crist said the policies he pursued and garnered decreased property insurance rates by 10% during his time as governor.

Tough issue to capitalize on

Lee, the Tampa Republican, says DeSantis and Republican lawmakers have two advantages. One, they are in the driver's seat since they control all of the infrastructure of state government and can set the narrative, priorities and agenda.

But they need to act fast and decisively.

"It's game time," Lee said. "And they need to be able to be responsive."

The other is the complexity of insurance as an issue. Lee said there is no doubt that the storm will increase the focus on property insurance for this upcoming election.

But he said he doesn't think DeSantis is in a vulnerable spot because the property insurance issues have been festering for years, and it would be too difficult to put all of that blame into DeSantis alone.

The governor's standing ahead of Ian's landfall appeared fairly solid. A Spectrum News-Siena College poll conducted before the storm gave DeSantis a 50% favorability rating.

An opportunity for Crist to pin the insurance mess on DeSantis was a scheduled televised debate slated for Oct. 12. But that encounter has now been postponed.

And even if Crist were to able to message the insurance crisis, he lacks the money for an effective, statewide advertising campaign.

University of North Florida pollster Michael Binder questions how impactful the property insurance question will be come Nov. 8.

Binder said those who have been directly impacted by property damage may have this issue on the forefront of their minds, perhaps for the next year or two, but those who skirted past damage won't have the same sentiment.

"Unless you're directly impacted – which millions of people are going to be – this I don't think is going to be as big of a deal come Nov. 8," Binder said.

A statewide UNF poll from early August showed Florida residents being most concerned with the cost of living by 43%, with education and abortion rights as runner-ups tied at 8% in a list of twelve choices.

This topic may have a delayed afterthought in voter's minds come next year if their insurance company pulls out of Florida or if their insurance rates bump up, Binder said.

Plus, former business lobbyist Barney Bishop said that Crist's own insurance reforms as governor won't stand the test of scrutiny. It's Crist who would have to explain why insurance rates went up while he was governor, says Bishop, who in the late 2000s was a critic of Crist's management of the era's insurance crisis.

"The idea that Charlie Crist has any good ideas or even cares about insurance companies and what the impact is of Floridians is frankly a joke," Bishop said.

That's an assertion that Crist, who famously said he would put the "nail in the coffin" of the insurance industry in Florida, bristled at last week. He insisted rates dropped during his term while DeSantis' ignoring the crisis has cost Floridians dearly.

Seen via 'partisan lens'

The complexity of insurance also harkens to what others said appeared to be a similar opportunity two years ago when Florida's unemployment benefits system crashed at the onset of the pandemic business shutdown.

It was a system implemented by a Republican governor and Legislature early in the last decade, and even derided by DeSantis. When it failed miserably, hundreds of thousands of frustrated Floridians suffered for it.

But in the 2020 election, it was a non-issue. And in fact, the system's failure in some ways gave DeSantis justification for reopening Florida's economy and later building his "Free Florida" brand.

Ahead of this year's election, Kevin Wagner, chairman of the political science department at Florida Atlantic University, said the government's way of handling hurricane damage in general could become is an assessment of how the government is doing.

Wagner said the specific issue of property insurance issue following a hurricane could leave DeSantis vulnerable for the elections, since it could affect how people view the effectiveness of current state government.

"Ideally, we'd hope that no matter what your party is, you can try and handle this as best as possible and cooperate with whoever you need to," Wagner said. "But people are going to see it through a partisan lens."

Stephany Matat is a journalist at the Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach her at [email protected]. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

Reporting by Hannah Morse of the Palm Beach Post was used in this story.