Public health experts say there likely is no single reason why
""This is the reason we do case investigations," said
Knowing whether a new wave of infections is stemming from bars or the essential workforce or some other source, Nuzzo said, could help local officials halt a new outbreak before it triggers another lockdown.
Those types of investigations would also reveal super spreading events, where one person can infect dozens or even hundreds of others. Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at
"If you get unlucky and you get a couple of those happening within a relatively small area, then it introduces hundreds of cases to a community ... instead of a slow, deterministic build," Hanage said.
Another possible explanation is that
Senior, who is now president of the
"You won't get nursing facility deaths," he said, "but you have young people going out, interacting with the community and coming back in. ... It's something to think about."
Senior surmised that migration patterns likely play a role, too, given that
"If you look at hot spots around the world. They have been
Though Senior is not a trained epidemiologist, Hanage, the Harvard professor, agreed that travel patterns -- both domestically and internationally -- are "certainly worth taking seriously."
"You can see that, for instance, one of the major reasons
Though public health experts agree on the importance of contact tracing,
"I can understand the desire not to shut down restaurants and things that are driving the economy," Nuzzo said. "But if you can find places that are riskier than others and intervene there, that might help you avoid a shutdown."
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