What would it really take for abortion to be illegal in Pa., N.J.?
But what would it really take for it to be overturned?
A handful of analysts have suggested that abortion could be illegal in 20 states within the next 18 months. Social media rang with calls urging girlfriends to obtain intrauterine devices, which can prevent pregnancy for up to a decade, as a precautionary mechanism should abortion be criminalized. And while abortion opponents feel optimistic --
"I have never been like 'the sky is falling,'" said
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In truth, a lot would have to happen for abortion access to disappear in
Here's what would need to take place for abortion to be banned in our area.
First, a Supreme Court case
That dynamic will likely change should
Next, a number of scenarios would have to trigger the court to decide on a case.
Four justices have to sign on in order to accept a case to be argued before the Supreme Court, while five justices are needed for a majority opinion. The court could wait for a state to pass a bill criminalizing abortion, allow that to snake through the lower court system and then make its way to the Supreme Court to be considered. Or, Cohen explained, it could take up one of dozens of pending cases related to abortion-restriction laws. By upholding a law that, say, banned abortion after 20 weeks or outlawed certain types of procedures, the court could effectively overturn Roe v. Wade.
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Cohen said that if Roe were to be overturned, 20 states or more -- though not
Other scholars say it would likely take longer.
It's not clear the current court would have the same concern about overturning long-term precedent -- a case decided this week overturned a 40-year precedent affecting unions.
A state law comes next
If Roe were to be overturned through a Supreme Court ruling, that decision wouldn't itself criminalize abortion. Instead, the decision would leave it up to states to regulate. What's unclear is what would happen in the immediate aftermath of such a ruling. Dane said it's possible state laws would revert to what they were in 1973 when Roe was decided. At that time, abortion was illegal in
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"Given how much time has passed, given the fact that state legislatures haven't had incentive to repeal those laws because they were struck down," he said, "I can imagine state courts saying those laws don't simply come back to life."
In that case, new laws would need to be passed to change the status quo. Experts, plus advocates from both
A bill of that nature is highly unlikely in
Then, a governor willing to sign
Tracy, of the
Wolf, a Democrat, has vowed to deny any such legislation. He vetoed the 20-week abortion ban in December, said he would veto a so-called heartbeat bill, and
Wolf is running against Republican
As a senator, Wagner cosponsored and voted in favor of the 20-week abortion ban and has signaled his support for a heartbeat bill.
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