Watauga farmers confront rising beef prices amid supply shortage

WATAUGA — Beef prices across the United States have hit record highs, and producers in Watauga County are feeling the strain of a shrinking national cattle herd, rising costs and mounting development pressures.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that ground beef prices, which held steady between $3.55 and $4.20 per pound from 2015 to 2019, have risen nearly 50% over the past decade. After spiking during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, prices continued climbing, reaching $6.25 per pound in July 2025. Steak prices have followed a similar trend, increasing from about $7.50 per pound in 2015 to nearly $12 this summer.

For Gray Shipley of Shipley Farms in Vilas, the reasons are straightforward.

"The biggest factor is supply and demand," he said. "We're at over a 70-year low in the size of our beef cattle herd in America."

Shipley explained that droughts in the Midwest and Texas several years ago forced ranchers to cull herds, reducing breeding stock and tightening future supply.

"Cattle are such a long cycle; it takes about three years to make a steak," he said. "So when breeding stock declines, you don't have enough cattle, so prices go up to balance that demand."

While Watauga County's pastures are more resilient than drought-stricken regions, local farmers remain tied to national markets. Shipley Farms, which focuses on finishing beef production, buys young cattle from breeding farms and raises them to market weight.

"We always want to pay our partner farms a fair price," Shipley said. "When prices rise, our costs go up, and that gets passed along to restaurants and retail customers."

Demographic and development pressures compound the challenges. Shipley noted that the average age of farmers in the U.S. is 59, with about half older than that.

"You have a lot of people just saying, 'This is the time I can cash out and make really good money on my breeding stock and retire,'" Shipley said.

A 2022 study by American Farmland Trust found North Carolina to be the sixth-highest state at risk of farmland loss to development, with 11.6% to 16.2% of agricultural land potentially converted by 2040 if current practices don't change. Watauga County was identified as the 39th most threatened county nationwide, with between 32.9%-43.5% of farmland at risk.

"Development pressure is another factor here locally that we're facing," Shipley said. "High cattle prices make it tempting for farmers to cash out, sell land and retire."

A separate 2022 USDA report ranked Watauga County 35th in North Carolina for cattle and calf production and 2,036th nationally. Between 2017 and 2022, the county saw a 23% reduction in the number of farms and a 41% reduction in farmland acreage.

At the consumer level, Shipley has seen buyers shift toward affordability. "For the first time, we're out of ground beef," he said. "We have a surplus of steaks, but people are buying more ground and fewer fillets and ribeyes."

He encourages shoppers to consider other cuts such as chuck eye steak or tri-tip roast. "We've got a freezer full of cuts that people don't know about. You can learn and experiment with the other cuts that aren't as high on the price spectrum."

Buying locally, he added, can offer higher quality and keeps money circulating within the community.

"When you're connected directly with your farm, you know what's in your food and what's not," Shipley said. "And every dollar spent locally gets reinvested into the community."

Despite already high prices, Shipley does not expect relief in the near future.

"I'm kind of expecting another 15 to 30% increase in beef costs over the next year before we start to see any relief," he said.

For local farms, community support remains critical.

"Farming is hard on a small scale. When folks come out and buy local, they're not just getting better food, they're keeping farms from turning into developments and condominiums."