USD/BRL Analysis: Correlations and Overreactions as Volatility Looms – 17 September 2024

-- The USD/BRL has been able to demonstrate selling momentum since last Thursday.
-- This comes as a welcome relief to citizens in Brazil who have watched their national currency lose value steadily since the middle of January 2024.
-- The selling pressure in the USD/BRL has taken the currency pair around the 5.5050 ratio per yesterday’s closing.
-- Last Thursday the USD/BRL however was flirting with highs around the 5.6765 level.

The downturn in the USD/BRL has correlated to the broad Forex market as financial institutions have started to brace for tomorrow’s U.S Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The U.S central bank will certainly cut the Federal Funds Rate by at least 0.25% tomorrow. Yet, there is a lot of debate if the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive and possibly cut the U.S lending rate by 0.50%. A correlation with the USD for BRL traders is a good sign.

Short-Term USD/BRL and Risk Management

After moving in an almost singular bullish trend all of 2024, USD/BRL selling the past few days has brought the currency pair back to values seen in the last week of August. But the USD/BRL has seen reversals lower during this long bullish streak upwards and short-term speculators need to keep this in mind. The USD/BRL may have sold off the past few days, but this doesn’t mean the currency pair is now going to display a steep track lower.

Fiscal uncertainty still clouds Brazil’s financial landscape. Trading houses focused on the USD/BRL would like to be completely USD centric regarding the value of the currency pair, but they cannot be. Too much loud noise is still coming from debate regarding monetary policy in Brazil and this may keep the USD/BRL within the loftier price realm it now occupies.

The 5.5000 Level as a Barometer

Yes, the U.S Fed is going to cut its interest rate tomorrow and this will cause widespread volatility in Forex and the USD/BRL over the next forty hours. However a lot of the selling of the USD over the past handful of days in financial circles has priced the Fed’s interest rate cut into Forex.

-- The question is what the reaction will be after the Fed’s rate announcement tomorrow?
-- ;If the Fed cuts by only 0.25% tomorrow, expect to see volatility and perhaps a bit of upward drift to the USD/BRL.
-- If the Fed does cut by 0.50% this could spur on more selling of the currency pair.
-- The 5.5000 level should be watched in the USD/BRL today and tomorrow before the Fed’s announcement, the price ratio will be a good barometer regarding the outlook of financial institutions dealing with the Brazilian Real.
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Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: ;5.5080

Current Support: ; 5.5020

High Target: 5.5400

Low Target: ; 5.4890

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