UPDATE: Tropical Storm Elsa to reach Fayetteville two hours before daybreak Thursday

Jul. 7—Fayetteville can expect to see signs of Tropical Storm Elsa about two hours before daybreak Thursday with the greatest impact occurring between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., the National Weather Service in Raleigh reported Wednesday afternoon.

From 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Thursday, a flash flood watch is in effect for Cumberland, Harnett, Moore, Lee and Sampson counties were included in the NWS tropical storm watch.

The greatest impact appears to be heavy rain, with a small chance of isolated cyclones, said meteorologist Nick Luchetti with the National Weather Service in Raleigh.

According to Luchetti, Elsa could weaken over land and change its course. The storm made landfall in Florida around 11 a.m. Wednesday, the NWS in Raleigh reported.

Elsa currently maintains its tropical storm status, but according to a 2 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it crosses the Carolinas, before potentially becoming a tropical storm again as it heads over Virginia and moves north.

According to the 2 p.m. update, Elsa's winds are weakening as the storm moves inland, but rainfall is increasing.

Here's what we can expect in the Fayetteville area:

Luchetti said flash flooding seems as if it'll have more of an impact than wind. Fayetteville could receive between 2-3 inches of rain, and some areas could have 5 inches, he said.

As the storm moves further inland, it is possible that some areas around Fayetteville could see rainfall closer to 1 inch, the National Hurricane Center reported around 2 p.m.

The storm system is expected to reach the Fayetteville area early Thursday morning before 8 a.m., moving north by mid-afternoon.

According to Wednesday's 2 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, the heaviest rain in Fayetteville from Elsa is expected from about 8 a.m. to 2 p.m., carrying into lighter rain in the evening.

Evening commuters in the Fayetteville area may be able see some sunshine on their way home from work as Elsa's heavy rain shouldn't be an issue by that time, the NWS in Raleigh reported.

"That said, it should move pretty quickly, with flash flood threats not as high as it would be if it were a slow-moving storm," he said.

Low-lying areas are at more of a risk for possible flash flooding, Luchetti said.

Weather models are tracking the possibility of cyclones pushing west, Luchetti said.

The sustainment of the winds did not appear to be a threat as of Wednesday, which is why a tropical storm warning advisory has not been issued, he said.

The strongest winds could be east of the possible cyclone track, which is why some eastern counties — including Cumberland and Sampson — are included in the storm watch, he said.

Areas more susceptible to the risk are along the east Interstate 95 corridor.

Fayetteville could see wind gusts at or above the tropical storm threshold, which is 39 miles per hour, he said.

"Right now, we think the risk is relatively low, but there is a small risk," Luchetti said.

Wind gusts should weaken by 4 p.m., Luchetti said.

Cumberland County Emergency Management is monitoring the storm, according to a county news release.

Residents are encouraged to make a plan for before, during and after the storm and can visit ready.gov/kit for ideas on what to include in an emergency supply kit.

Fayetteville residents who have not been vaccinated for COVID-19 are asked to get their vaccines if there is a need for congregate sheltering, Emergency Management Coordinator Scott Bullard said.

"If shelters are required for Elsa or another storm in the coming months, then we are limited by the social distancing and infection control measures that reduce the capacity of our shelters," Bullard said. "Moreover, we do not want the shelters to be potential sources of or spreaders of disease."

City of Fayetteville crews have taken precautions by placing barricades near Ray Avenue, the Locks Creek community and roads prone to flooding, according to a city news release.

Debris was removed from 30 identified locations in Locks Creek last week.

City vehicle fuel tanks were filled Tuesday, and maintenance crews have prepped chainsaws and any needed equipment, the release stated.

City officials will monitor rain and stream gages that are in five locations throughout the city, including the Cape Fear River area.

Residents are asked to notify officials of trees or limbs that block roadways, to call utility companies instead of 911 for power outages to and to be aware that power lines could be in limbs.

To report outages with Fayetteville PWC, call 910-483-1382.

Storm damage reports for insurance purposes can be filed on the city's website.

Staff writer Rachael Riley can be reached at [email protected] or 910-486-3528.

Crime reporter Jack Boden can be reached at [email protected].

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