State House Dome: Gardner says primary turnout to be highest ever with incumbent president

New Hampshire Union Leader

Feb. 9--Secretary of State Bill Gardner said Tuesday's turnout will be the highest ever for a primary involving an incumbent but less than what he had been signaling.

For about a week, Gardner told reporters total turnout was likely to top 500,000.

Gardner said Friday his detailed analysis of select precincts, the number of absentee ballots and the past history of only one competitive race convinced him to reduce his forecast by 80,000.

He said the two times that the half-million ballots mark was passed were in 2008 and 2016, when the presidency was wide open.

Gardner predicted roughly 292,000 ballots will be cast in the Democratic primary and 128,000 in the GOP race, which President Donald Trump is expected to win decisively over former Mass. Gov. Bill Weld.

What's notable about the estimate is how high Gardner is going with the GOP turnout.

When President Barack Obama ran without an opponent for a second term in 2012, that Democratic primary had only 61,000 votes.

The same was true in 2004, when then-President George W. Bush was running for the last time. The GOP turnout was 69,000.

Gardner was able to make use of a robust voter database that gave him information on absentee ballots taken in the past.

In 2016, there were 18,000 absentees in the GOP primary and 16,000 in the Democratic primary.

"With a few days left, the Democratic absentees requested are already at the Republican level of four years ago and that's impressive," Gardner said last week.

If Gardner is right, turnout would represent about 43% of the 980,000 total registered voters, a number that will likely get bumped up when the Election Day registrants are counted.

The nation's longest-serving state election official has a pretty good track record with his estimates. More often than not, the actual vote has come in slightly higher than Gardner's forecast.

Sununu sniffs out 'The Daily Show'

A correspondent with the irreverent "The Daily Show" turned out for the pre-primary announcement and was ready to give Gov. Chris Sununu the "shock jock" treatment.

But the two-term governor was ready for him.

The reporter, Ronny Chieng, is a native of Malaysia and was raised in Manchester and Singapore.

Chieng asked Sununu two expletive-laced questions, but Sununu showed no emotion and stuck to the script, denying "The Daily Show" the caustic comeback comment it treasures.

When Sununu walked into the Executive Council chambers for the news conference, he surely noticed one of the 25 cameras in the room was trained on the reporter, Chieng, while the others were pointed at the podium.

"Hey, the News Hampshire press corps has sure grown," Sununu deadpanned.

Sununu said after the event he had a "great conversation" with Chieng.

Sununu gets to practice State of State

Last Thursday's storm prompted Sununu to put off his State of the State speech to this Thursday at 2 p.m.

As it happens, Sununu had a dress rehearsal of these remarks less than three hours earlier.

After every annual speech, the governor heads off on a roadshow to give the highlights of his address before a series of local Rotary clubs and chambers of commerce.

Because Sununu was to have already done his State House speech last week, the first roadshow is this Thursday at 11:30 a.m. before the Concord Chamber of Commerce at the Grappone Conference Center.

Right to Work fails again

The Democratic-led State Senate made quick work of Right to Work last week, voting, 14-9, to kill the bill (SB 651), which would prevent a union from requiring all covered employees to join a union or pay dues to it.

Sen. Sharon Carson, R-Londonderry, joined the 13 Senate Democrats present in voting against the measure.

"When we take power and funding away from our unions we deny them the necessary resources to advocate on behalf of their members for better pay and working conditions," said Sen. Kevin Cavanaugh, D-Manchester.

Broad coalition fighting assisted suicide

Some are planning a Wednesday news conference decrying the state-approved suicide bill on the day it faces the first public hearing.

State Rep. Catt Sandler, D-Somersworth, is prime author of the measure (HB 1659), which allows anyone older than 18 with a terminal illness to request medication so the person can control the "time, place and manner of death."

The Coalition Against State-Approved Suicide includes ABLE NH, the Brain Injury Association of NH, Catholic Charities NH, Catholic Medical Center, Cornerstone Action, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Manchester, CSNI, the Disability Rights Center of NH, Euthanasia Prevention Coalition USA, the NH Hospital Association, NH Wings of Hope for Veterans Brain Injury Foundation, Not Dead Yet, Patients Rights Action Fund, St. Joseph Hospital and Warriors At Risk and the NH Coalition Against Veteran Suicide.

'Learn Everywhere' fight sees shift

For nearly a year, Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut fought to get approval of his Learn Everywhere initiative from an administrative rules panel. The group voted to register an objection to the rule that doesn't actually block it but fails to provide the Department of Education cover if these rules end up in court.

Meanwhile, the Democratic-led Senate voted, 15-8, to adopt a new resolution that asserts local school districts' primacy over the the state Board of Education.

"We recognize that students acquire knowledge in lots of ways, but schools retain local control over what learning counts towards graduation credit. Neither Governor Sununu, Commissioner Edelblut nor the State Board of Education can take that away with legislative authorization," said Sen. Jay Kahn, D-Keene.

Sen. Jeb Bradley, R-Wolfeboro, vowed to keep fighting on Edelblut's behalf.

"I am disappointed that Senate Democrats voted to limit educational opportunities for schoolchildren in New Hampshire," Bradley said.

Republican Sens. David Starr of Franconia and Robert Giuda of Warren joined Democrats in support of the resolution.

Senate has first gunfight

There will be many more, but the Senate had its first debate on guns.

Giuda had added an amendment to a school discipline bill to support ROTC and riflery teams by preventing school districts from expelling or suspending a student for possessing a gun for these activities on school grounds.

"It is alarming that Senate Democrats unanimously rejected this amendment, not based on the interest of our schools and children, but upon their partisan opposition to current Second Amendment rights," Giuda said.

Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes, D-Concord, called it a "radical" idea that the Senate rejected it by a vote of 13-10.

"Thankfully the Senate rejected this radical attempt to put guns in schools and override local control. When Governor Sununu vetoed gun free schools in 2019, it showed New Hampshire that his administration is more concerned about the gun lobby than the safety of our children, our teachers, and our communities," Feltes said.

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