S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: October 2024 – 30 September 2024

-- During the month of September, we have seen a lot of volatility in the S&P 500, as markets continue to look to the Federal Reserve for some type of directionality.
-- With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in the month of September, this signals that the Fed is finally going to loosen monetary policy, and perhaps drive more money into the stock market in order to protect Wall Street.

Ultimately, I think this is a situation where the market will continue to try to find some type of bullish scenario to continue to push the stocks market higher. Furthermore, we have seen a lot of noise just below current levels that could offer a bit of support, so I think all things being equal, this is a market that will continue to rally during the month of October. This isn’t to say that there won’t be a short-term pullback, because quite frankly I think there will be enough time. Nonetheless, the market continues to be noisy, and I think this is a situation where the traders will continue to look for some type of value that they can take advantage of. Quite frankly, I think that if we do get some type of pullback, it will only invite more bullish behavior.

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Technical Analysis

As I look at the chart, the first thing I see is that we had recently broke above the 5700 level, an area that of course will attract a certain amount of attention. Nonetheless, this is a market that is a little stretched and I think that although we have plenty of support underneath, there is still a lot of work to do in order to send this market to the upside. With this environment, I believe that the market will continue to see buyers willing to step into the market, especially if we continue to see a lot of liquidity measures taken by the Federal Reserve, which of course will have to deal with the idea of a slowing economy in the United States, which of course Wall Street will celebrate.

All of this being said, if we were to break down below the 5000 level, that could kick off a significant barrier market, and therefore could change the entire course of trading. I don’t expect to see that quite yet, but it is an outlier that you need to keep in the back of your mind.

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