Slight Severe Risk Later Today – Catastrophic Hurricane Laura Comes Ashore in Louisiana

Laura: A Catastrophic Storm For Louisiana Consistently warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico has fueled rapid intensification of hurricanes in recent years. These massive storms get their energy from warm water; jet fuel for hurricanes. Meteorologists witnessed this with Katrina in 2005 and Michael in 2018.

Hurricane Laura's rapid strengthening before landfall was remarkable, pushing ashore a 15-20 foot dome of water, the dreaded "storm surge". Peak winds get most of the media attention, but the biggest killer is water, from the coastal surge and inland flooding.

Hurricane conditions may extend inland today as far as Little Rock. Amazing.

We cool off a little today, with strong to severe T-storms possible over roughly the southern half of Minnesota by tonight. A showery, unsettled Friday gives way to blue sky and low humidity Saturday, with fine weather lingering into most of Sunday. An even stronger cool front drops daytime highs into the 70s next week.

In theory, September is a drier, quieter month with fewer severe storms.

In theory.

Hurricane Laura image from Wednesday night: NOAA and AerisWeather.

Hurricane Laura Intermediate Update: Issued Wednesday evening, August 26, 2020:

Key Points:

- Hurricane Laura is now a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds now up to 145 mph, centered 155 miles south of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Further strengthening is likely until landfall, and there's a chance Laura may strengthen to Category 5 strength in the coming hours. Laura is the strongest storm in the Gulf of Mexico since "Katrina" in 2005.

- Near the eyewall (the raging donut of high-speed winds surrounding the eye) sustained winds may approach 150 mph for a few hours late tonight, the rough meteorological equivalent of a 30-40 mile wide EF-4 tornado. Between water and wind damage coastal communities will experience tornado-like damage within

- NOAA is calling this an "unsurvivable storm", which is not hype. A storm surge of 15-20 feet will inundate much of coastal southwestern Louisiana overnight with widespread damage expected as far inland as Lake Charles, Louisiana. We expect much of Lake Charles to be under water later tonight into a portion of Thursday.

- Laura is the strongest hurricane since reliable records began in 1851 for southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Unusually warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is fueling "rapid intensification" before landfall, making a bad situation worse.

- Although Houston will be spared the worst of the storm, southeast Texas cities will experience severe disruptions: Port Arthur, Beaumont and Orange may see a 6-12 hour period of 100 mph+ winds with widespread tree/roof damage and power outages.

- Louisiana coastal highways are already flooded - hundreds of thousands of residents have been evacuated inland; the evacuation process complicated by Covid-19 and health concerns.

- Laura will weaken rapidly after reaching land, but hurricane-force winds are possible as far inland as Little Rock, Arkansas on Thursday.

Hurricane Laura. Laura's strengthening in the span of 24 hours has been remarkable, and the storm will continue to intensify right up until landfall late tonight. "Laura" is moving northwest at 17 mph and (unlike Harvey in 2017) shows no signs of slowing or stalling. We don't expect massive rainfall amounts, similar to what happened with Harvey. With Laura the main threat is 1). damaging storm surge extending as far as 20-30 miles inland, 2). 125-145 mph winds over western Louisiana capable of structural damage and widespread power outages lasting weeks, and 3). Tornadoes spinning up in the spiral bands feeding moisture into the storm's center.

NHC Projected Path. Laura will weaken rapidly after coming ashore late tonight, but flooding rains are possible hundreds of miles inland, from Shreveport and Little Rock to Memphis, Louisville and Cincinnati by Saturday.

Hurricane Watches and Warnings. Hurricane Warnings are in effect just east of Houston, including Beaumont, Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Metro Houston is under a Hurricane Watch, where gusts may still exceed 50-60 mph, capable of minor damage and spotty power outages. Far eastern Texas and western and central Louisiana will bear the brunt of Hurricane Laura.

Storm Surge Warnings. NOAA has issued Surge Warnings from Galveston Bay into much of coastal Louisiana for rapidly-rising water levels overnight as the center of Hurricane Laura pushes ashore. Keep in mind that the media often fixates on peak wind speeds, but water is the biggest killer, from the storm surge rise in water at landfall, and flooding rains well inland.

Historic Storm Surge. Water levels may rise as much as 15-20 feet along the southwestern coastline of Louisiana, potentially wiping out coastal towns situation on Highway 82, between Port Arthur, Texas and Creole, Louisiana. This surge is well above the elevation of most coastal communities, and NOAA is concerned that the surge may extend as far as 20-30 miles inland, engulfing metro Lake Charles, the most heavily populated city in the direct path of Laura.

Worst Storm Surge Flooding Comes Overnight. Waters may rise 2-4 feet in Galveston Bay, but the greatest concern is from Port Arthur to Lake Charles. Coastal barrier islands will be battered by a 10-20 foot storm surge tonight at the height of the storm. I fear that (water) damage for many coastal communities in far eastern Texas and southwest Louisiana will be extensive and historic.

Extreme Storm Surge Flooding Potential. A 9'+ surge is now likely from Port Arthur and Cameron eastward to Morgan City. What is amazing is that the surge may extend 20-30 miles inland, traveling right up Calcasieu Lake into Lake Charles, Louisiana, where flooding is likely to be extensive.

Perspective. At a depth of 13' more than half the city of Lake Charles is flooded. Flood stage is 4 feet. The peak is forecast midday tomorrow over 15 feet, so inundation will be extensive and historic. Certainly, this will be a devastating hurricane for Lake Charles, as well as much of western Louisiana and far eastern Texas.

Inland Flooding Potential. Severe flooding is likely from Laura hundreds of miles inland, extending into Little Rock and Memphis by Thursday and Friday. Winds will drop off quickly after Laura pushes inland, but the threat of extensive flash flooding will remain.

Summary: Moderate flooding and sporadic power outages are possible in the greater Houston area, but Houston will avoid a direct hit from Hurricane Laura. I'm much more concerned about cities in far southeastern coastal Texas, including Beaumont and Port Arthur. Storm surge damage will be catastrophic for coastal Louisiana, with historic flooding expected in Lake Charles, where most of the city may be underwater on Thursday. In all probability, Hurricane Laura will be the strongest hurricane to impact the Gulf Coast since Michael slammed into the Florida Panhandle in October of 2018. Stating the obvious, safe evacuations and sheltering will be complicated by Covid-19, making a very bad situation even worse.

Another update Thursday morning. Stay safe out there...

Paul Douglas

Senior Meteorologist, Praedictix.

Slight Severe Risk Today Southern and Central Minnesota - Series of Cooler Fronts Coming. SPC has roughly the southern half of Minnesota under a "slight risk" of severe storms later today; the primary threat is large hail. Unsettled, thundery weather spills into Friday, but drier, less humid air returns for Saturday (best day in sight) and most of Sunday looks pretty nice too. Tuesday was the 15th day of 90-degree heat in the Twin Cities, and I don't see any more 90s looking out 2 weeks. Map sequence: Praedictix and AerisWeather.

ECMWF: Family of Cool Fronts. Fresh air returns for the weekend, with a reinforcing cool front on Monday promising a few days of fall-like weather early next week. We'll see more 80s, but I'm not so sure we'll see any more 90s before the flakes start to fly. There, I said it. MSP Meteogram: WeatherBell. GFS: Closed Low for Mid-September? Confidence levels are low (they usually are looking out 2 weeks) but NOAA's GFS model shows a stalled area of low pressure meandering over the Midwest the second week of September, which (if it verifies) would suggest a few days of cooler, showery weather.

How Earth-Orbiting Satellites are Tracking the 2020 Hurricane Season. Space.com has some interesting perspective: "...Organizations like NOAA use Earth-orbiting satellites to monitor weather and storms like hurricanes here on Earth. Among others, NOAA uses Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, or GOES, which orbit at the same speed of Earth's rotation 22,300 miles (35,888 kilometers) above our planet's equator. "Our satellites give us a large-scale view" of the Earth that can see everything from the big to the small, Yoe said. He added that with these observations, scientists and forecasters can fully see the conditions in which hurricanes form. Yoe added that NOAA has recently made a number of enhancements and improvements to their existing satellites..."

August Rainfall To Date. Over 5" at St. Cloud, but only 1.5" in Rochester. This month has seen some big variations in moisture, but in general summer rainfall has been adequate for crops and vegetation. August Rainfall Deficits and Surpluses. Rainfall has been generally above average over central and northern Minnesota, but below average for far southern counties of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Map credits: Praedictix and AerisWeather. Scientists Create Most Detailed Tornado Simulations. Here's a clip from The National Science Foundation: "...How do tornadoes form? What ingredients do they require? And can they be predicted early enough to provide timely warnings to the public? These are all open questions. "For about two out of three times when there's a tornado warning issued, there's no tornado," said Leigh Orf, a U.S. National Science Foundation-funded atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "We need to do better for people to heed these warnings." Overall, the physics of tornadoes is well understood, but the small-scale aspects of their formation and how they are maintained within supercell thunderstorms require more research. Tornadoes cannot be fully studied in a laboratory, however, and field research on these rare, isolated events is difficult to plan. "We don't have remote sensing technology that can capture the dynamics and physics of full storms with the needed resolution to get to the bottom of their mysteries," Orf said..." Image credit: "The vorticity field of a multiple-vortex EF5 tornado embedded in a supercell thunderstorm." What it Takes to Verify the Hottest Temperatures on Earth. One heavy-duty weather station. The Verge explains: "...To vet the Death Valley temperature, the WMO will first need to bring together an international team of top scientists. They’re given a background report to examine that includes details on the location where the temperature was recorded, the type of equipment used, regional weather conditions during the time of the observation, and any other pertinent information. There are strict standards for how temperatures should be taken. For example, the sensor needs to be shaded and lifted above the ground to avoid getting an observation that’s misleadingly hot. Over the years, the process for vetting weather extremes has become more rigorous. A new step was added last year: transporting the equipment that took the observation to a lab to test it..."

Image credit: "The instrument that took the reading of 130 degrees Fahrenheit at Furnace Creek, Death Valley, on August 16th." NOAA.

Transitioning to Renewable Energy Isn't So Simple. Just Look at California. Mother Jones delves into the challenges of delivering reliable baseload power when it's needed the most: "...For years, renewable energy enthusiasts have insisted that most of the problems of the electric grid were caused by outdated and inflexible coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy technologies. A system built on solar panels and wind turbines, smart meters, electricity storage, and payments for flexible demand would lower costs and improve reliability for everyone. Some academic studies showed that renewables could easily supply 80 percent or more of an electric grid’s demands. But with non-hydroelectric renewable technologies, mostly solar and wind, generating about 30 percent of California’s electricity today, we are witnessing the types of obstacles and problems that these new technologies introduce..."

Image credit: Department of Energy.

Welcome to Lithuania - Land of Smoked Mackerel Ice Cream. I'd like extra tomatoes on my sundae please. Big Think has the lip-smacking details: "...Vilnius, in the southeast, is the capital and largest city of the country. It's no surprise you'll find lots of weirdness, such as ice cream with…

Tomatoes / mustard: restaurant Dziaugsmas (Vilnius) Salted sunflower seeds / carrots: restaurant chain Jurgis ir drakonas (Vilnius and six other locations) Rhubarb / 'smetonos' (i.e. sour cream): restaurant Ertlio Namas (Vilnius) Beetroot: restaurant-bistro Mykolo 4 (Vilnius) Beer syrup with bread chips: restaurant Dzuku Alaus (Alytus) Smoked mackerel: restaurant Apvalaus stalo klubas (Trakai)..." Image credit: Lithuania Travel

92 F. high in the Twin Cities on Wednesday (15th day of 90-degree-plus heat at MSP this summer).

79 F. average high on August 26.

71 F. high on August 26, 2019.

August 27, 1992: A chilly night in Embarrass, where the temperature dips to 28 degrees.

THURSDAY: A bit cooler with some sun, slight severe storm risk later. Winds: E 5-10. High: 85 FRIDAY: Unsettled with more showers, T-storms. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 69. High: 79 SATURDAY: Comfortable sunshine, breezy. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 60. High: 77 SUNDAY: Some sun, nighttime T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 78 MONDAY: Showery start, PM clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. Cooler. Wake-up: 57. High: 72 TUESDAY: Clouds increase, PM shower? Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 55. High: 68 WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and warmer. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 54. High: 77

Climate Stories...

Climate Change + Covid-19 + Hurricane Season = Trouble. Brian Kahn at Gizmodo explains how consistently warmer water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are accelerating "rapid intensification" of hurricanes before landfall: "...Cramming people into enclosed spaces with close contact in the middle of a pandemic might seem like a bad idea, but then that should give you a sense of how dangerous the situation is with a storm bearing down. The fact that the coronavirus outbreak has lingered due to a bumbling federal response was always going to complicate what is becoming an exceptional hurricane season, but now here we are. The situation shows the way that disasters are piling on top of one another. People have flocked to the Gulf Coast for decades, creating a huge swath of vulnerability right at a time when climate change makes living in the region more unsafe. Sea level rise and more powerful storms have combined to pose an ever-greater threat..."

Paying for Extreme Weather: Wildfire, Hurricanes, Floods and Droughts Quadrupled in Cost Since 1980. Here's an excerpt of an analysis at InsideClimate News: "...The report analyzed data going back to 1980 from several sources, including a database of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that catalogues climate disasters with costs of $1 billion or more and is continually updated. Only disasters with costs of that magnitude were included in the analysis. The $1.77 trillion total cost in the United States included $954.4 billion from 45 tropical storms and hurricanes, by far the most costly extreme weather category. Next came $268.4 billion in costs from 125 hail, wind, ice storms and blizzards, followed by $252.7 billion from drought, $150.4 billion from flooding and $85.4 billion from wildfires..."

Mounting Drumbeat Of Climate Disasters Threatens Mental Health: Climate Nexus has headlines and links: "The psychological toll of climate change-fueled disasters, now compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, is mounting and the U.S. is unprepared. These are the findings of a project by the Center for Public Integrity and Columbia Journalism Investigations, in collaboration with 10 local and regional outlets. The U.S. has faced nearly 40 billion-dollar disasters in the past decade, more than ever before. One such event, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, caused half of Houston-area residents to struggle with powerful or severe emotional distress in its aftermath, according to a Rice University survey to be published Wednesday. Meanwhile, the main federal vehicle for addressing the psychological trauma of weather and climate disasters, the Crisis Counseling Assistance and Training Program, run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has distributed about as much in post-disaster assistance over its three decades of existence ($867 million) as one agency within the Department of Defense lost track of in a single year. Even if the government were to fully fund and support comprehensive mental health care for disaster survivors, it would be insufficient without action to mitigate the underlying reality of climate change, advocates argue. “After a disaster, if the government does not declare a climate emergency and start acting like it, it’s just such a betrayal,” said Margaret Klein Salamon, a psychologist who started the advocacy group The Climate Mobilization after living through Superstorm Sandy. Providing mental-health support while failing to fight climate change, “is like a Band-Aid. How can we trust a government that does so little to protect us?” (The Lens, California Health Report, The State, Side Effects Public Media, The Mendocino Voice, IowaWatch, Hilton Head Island Packet, Texas Tribune, Mother Jones)

File image above: NOAA.

Bailout: Billions of Dollars of Federal Covid-10 Relief Money Flow to the Oil Industry. The Sierra Club has details: "...Plans for oil-industry-specific bailouts were effectively shut down by congressional Democrats. But, with help from congressional Republicans, billions of taxpayer dollars are flowing to the industry. The money is providing a clear lifeline to companies that were long-distressed prior to the pandemic. It is hard to see lasting benefits for workers, however, as many of these same companies slash jobs and benefits. And it is likely too little too late for an oil industry that appears beyond resuscitation, even by Trump (see The End of Oil Is Near). Three primary tranches of federal COVID-19 relief money are currently sending billions of dollars to the oil and gas industry: the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), a tax loophole in the CARES Act, and several new Federal Reserve programs, including one that has made the American taxpayer a direct holder of tens of millions of dollars in oil company debt..."

Fast-Moving California Wildfires Boosted by Climate Change. Scientific American connects the dots: "...The racing flames show how climate change is affecting the nation's most populous state, experts said. Hotter temperatures, less dependable precipitation and snowpack that melts sooner lead to drier soil and parched vegetation. Climate change also affects how much moisture is in the air, Swain said. "It's actually drying out the air during these extreme heat events," which zaps plants of additional moisture, Swain said. That left much of the state a tinderbox when hundreds of lightning strikes scorched the countryside last week. "This is really a testament to how dry the vegetation is, in terms of how quickly these fires spread when they were ignited by lightning," he said..."

Climate Chaos: Extreme Heat, Wildfires and Record-Setting Storms Suggest a Frightening Future is Already Here. Here's an excerpt from an analysis at CBS News: "...While climate catastrophes are typically spaced out in time and geographic location, right now the U.S. is dealing with multiple disasters. The Midwest is cleaning up from a devastating derecho that caused nearly $4 billion in damage to homes and crops, as nearly a quarter-million people in the West are under evacuation orders or warnings from fires that have burned over 1 million acres, and at the same time residents along the Gulf Coast are bracing for back-to-back landfalls of a tropical storm and hurricane. "This current stretch of natural catastrophe events in the United States are essentially a snapshot of what scientists and emergency managers have long feared," says meteorologist Steven Bowen, the head of Catastrophe Insight at AON, an international risk mitigation firm..."

Former U.S. Rep Bob Inglis: Florida Conservatives Embrace Climate Action. A funny thing happens when you can watch algae blooms and sea levels rise all around you - it sinks in that maybe this isn't a "natural cycle". Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from my friend, Bob Inglis, at Florida Today: "...Free market solutions to climate change are embedded in conservative principles and supported by right-of-center economists. You don’t need to grow the government or rely on red tape riddled regulations to solve the climate crisis. But you do need conservative leadership, like that of DeSantis. Conservatives need to return home to our economic and environmental roots and commit to rebuilding this country on a clean energy economy or else more lives, ecosystems and property will be lost, while the economy fails to rebound."

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