SKYWARD SPECIALTY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. - 10-K - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Insurance News | InsuranceNewsNet

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March 28, 2023 Newswires
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SKYWARD SPECIALTY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. – 10-K – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Edgar Glimpses

Overview


We are a growing specialty insurance company delivering commercial P&C products
and solutions on a non-admitted (or E&S) and admitted basis, predominantly in
the United States. We focus our business on markets that are underserved,
dislocated and/or for which standard insurance coverages are insufficient or
inadequate to meet the needs of businesses, including our customers and
prospective customers operating in these markets. Our customers typically
require highly specialized, customized underwriting solutions and claims
capabilities. As such, we develop and deliver tailored insurance products and
services to address each of the niche markets we serve.

Our portfolio of insured risks is highly diversified - we insure customers
operating in a wide variety of industries; we distribute through multiple
channels; we write multiple lines of business, including general liability,
excess liability, professional liability, commercial auto, group accident and
health, property, surety and workers' compensation; we insure both short and
medium duration liabilities; and our business mix is balanced between E&S and
admitted markets. All of these factors enable us to respond to market
opportunities and dislocations by deploying capital with attractive
risk-adjusted returns. We believe this diversification, combined with our
underwriting and claims expertise, will produce strong growth and consistent
profitability across P&C insurance pricing cycles.

We seek to lead in our chosen market niches and establish sustainable
competitive positions in these markets. We refer to this strategy as "Rule Our
Niche" and it forms the basis of our approach to building a strong defensible
market position, creating a competitive moat, and winning our chosen markets. We
believe that the principles underlying our strategy are key to achieving and
sustaining best-in-class underwriting results through P&C insurance pricing
cycles. We consistently strive for excellence in risk selection, pricing, and
claims outcomes, and to amplify these critical functions with the use of
advanced technology and analytics.

                                       34
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Results of Operations

The following table summarizes our results for the years ended December 31, 2022
and 2021:

    ($ in thousands)                                             2022             2021
    Gross written premiums                                  $ 1,143,952       $ 939,859
    Ceded written premiums                                     (468,409)       (410,716)
    Net written premiums                                        675,543         529,143
    Net earned premiums                                         615,994         499,823
    Commission and fee income                                     5,199           3,973
    Losses and LAE                                              402,512         354,411
    Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses            182,171         138,498
    Underwriting income(1)                                  $    36,510       $  10,887

    Net investment income                                   $    36,931       $  24,646
    Net investment (losses) gains                           $   (15,705)      $  17,107

    Income before federal income tax                        $    49,783       $  48,309

    Net income                                              $    39,396       $  38,317
    Adjusted operating income(1)                            $    58,574       $  36,062

    Loss and LAE ratio                                             65.3  %         70.9  %
    Expense ratio                                                  28.7  %         26.9  %
    Combined ratio                                                 94.0  %         97.8  %

    Adjusted loss and LAE ratio(1)                                 63.9  %         67.7  %
    Expense ratio                                                  28.7  %         26.9  %
    Adjusted combined ratio(1)                                     92.6  %         94.6  %

    Return on equity                                                9.3  %          9.4  %
    Return on tangible equity(1)                                   11.8  %         11.9  %
    Adjusted return on equity(1)                                   13.8  %          8.8  %
    Adjusted return on tangible equity(1)                          17.6  %         11.2  %

    (1) See "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" in this Item 7

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)

The following table provides a reconciliation of adjusted operating income to
net income for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                           2022                        2021
                                                   Before        After         Before        After
                                                   income        income        income        income
    ($ in thousands)                               taxes         taxes         taxes         taxes
    Income as reported                           $ 49,783      $ 39,396      $ 48,309      $ 38,317
    Less:
    Net impact of LPT                              (8,572)       (6,772)      (16,063)      (12,690)
    Net investment (losses) gains                 (15,705)      (12,407)   

17,107 13,515

    Net realized gain on sale of business               -             -    
    5,077         4,011
    Impairment charges                                  -             -        (2,821)       (2,229)
    Other income (loss)                                 1             1          (445)         (352)
    Adjusted operating income                    $ 74,059      $ 58,574    

$ 45,454 $ 36,062

                                       35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Underwriting income (loss)

The following table provides a reconciliation of underwriting income (loss) to
income (loss) before federal income tax for the years ended December 31, 2022
and 2021:

($ in thousands)                               2022            2021
Income before federal income tax           $     49,783    $     48,309
Add:
Interest expense                                  6,407      4,622
Amortization expense                              1,547           1,520
Impairment charges                                    -      2,821
Less:
Net investment income                            36,931          24,646
Net investment (losses) gains                  (15,705)          17,107
Net realized gain on sale of business            -           5,077
Other income (loss)                                   1           (445)
Underwriting income                        $     36,510    $     10,887


Adjusted Loss Ratio / Adjusted Combined Ratio


The following table provides a reconciliation of the adjusted loss and LAE ratio
and adjusted combined ratio to the loss and LAE ratio and combined ratio for
the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:

($ in thousands)                          2022            2021
Net earned premiums                   $ 615,994       $ 499,823
Losses and LAE                          402,512         354,411
Less: Pre-tax net impact of LPT           8,572          16,063
Adjusted losses and LAE               $ 393,940       $ 338,348
Loss and LAE ratio                         65.3  %         70.9  %
Less: Net impact of LPT                     1.4  %          3.2  %
Adjusted loss and LAE ratio                63.9  %         67.7  %
Combined ratio                             94.0  %         97.8  %
Less: Net impact of LPT                     1.4  %          3.2  %
Adjusted combined ratio                    92.6  %         94.6  %

Tangible Stockholders' Equity

The following table provides a reconciliation of tangible stockholders' equity
to stockholders' equity for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:


         ($ in thousands)                                2022              

2021

         Stockholders' equity                       $      421,662    $     

426,080

         Less: goodwill and intangible assets               89,870          

91,336

         Tangible stockholders' equity              $      331,792    $      334,744
                                                    $      331,792    $      334,744


Adjusted Return on Equity

The following table provides a reconciliation of adjusted return on equity to
return on equity for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:


($ in thousands)                                    2022            2021
Numerator: adjusted operating income            $  58,574       $  36,062
Denominator: average stockholders' equity       $ 423,871       $ 409,803
Adjusted return on equity                            13.8  %          8.8  %


                                       36
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Return on Tangible Equity

Return on tangible equity for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021
reconciles to return on equity as follows:


($ in thousands)                                             2022           

2021

Numerator: net income                                    $  39,396       $  

38,317

Denominator: average tangible stockholders' equity $ 333,268 $ 322,128
Return on tangible equity

                                     11.8  %         11.9  %


Adjusted Return on Tangible Equity

Adjusted return on tangible equity for the years ended December 31, 2022 and
2021 reconciles to return on equity as follows:


($ in thousands)                                             2022           

2021

Numerator: adjusted operating income                     $  58,574       $  

36,062

Denominator: average tangible stockholders' equity $ 333,268 $ 322,128
Adjusted return on tangible equity

                            17.6  %         11.2  %


Underwriting Results

Premiums

The following table presents gross written premiums by underwriting division for
the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                                                        %
     ($ in thousands)                       2022                  2021                 Change        Change
     Industry Solutions                $       267,628       $      219,973          $  47,655        21.7  %
     Global Property                           205,081              167,887             37,194        22.2  %
     Programs                                  163,653              140,283             23,370        16.7  %
     Accident & Health                         130,808              112,146             18,662        16.6  %
     Captives                                  124,286               87,836             36,450        41.5  %
     Professional Lines                         93,011               59,992             33,019        55.0  %
     Surety                                     79,062               51,792             27,270        52.7  %
     Transactional E&S                          75,098               27,997             47,101       168.2  %
     Total continuing business         $     1,138,627       $      867,906          $ 270,721        31.2  %
     Exited business                             5,325               71,953            (66,628)      (92.6) %
     Total gross written premiums      $     1,143,952       $      939,859          $ 204,093        21.7  %


The year over year increase in gross written premiums, when compared to 2021,
was driven by double-digit premium growth in each of our eight underwriting
divisions. The gross written premium increases were primarily driven by (i)
retention, (ii) rate increases, and (iii) new business. Growth was also impacted
by the addition of new products and expanded coverage offerings, new
underwriting teams and new tech-enabled partnerships. Partially offsetting the
increase in gross written premiums was the continued impact of the run-off of
exited business.

Net earned premiums were $616.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2022,
compared to $499.8 million for the same 2021 period, an increase of $116.2
million or 23.2%. The increase in net earned premiums was primarily driven by
the same reasons that drove the increase in gross written premiums discussed
above. For additional information regarding out reinsurance programs, see the
discussion included in "Item 1 Business - Reinsurance".

                                       37
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Losses and LAE

The following table sets forth the components of the loss and LAE ratio and
adjusted loss and LAE ratio for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                   2022                                         2021
                                                                            % of                                         % of
                                                     Losses              Net Earned               Losses              Net Earned
($ in thousands)                                    and LAE               Premiums               and LAE               Premiums
Losses and LAE:
Non-cat loss and LAE(1)                           $ 387,440                      62.8  %       $ 326,520                      65.3  %
Cat loss and LAE(1)                                   6,500                       1.1  %          11,828                       2.4  %
Prior accident year development - non-LPT                 -                         -  %               -                           -%
Prior accident year development - LPT                 8,572                       1.4  %          16,063                         3.2%
Total losses and LAE                              $ 402,512                      65.3  %       $ 354,411                      70.9  %
Adjusted losses and LAE(2):
Non-cat loss and LAE(1)                           $ 387,440                      62.8  %       $ 326,520                      65.3  %
Cat loss and LAE(1)                                   6,500                       1.1  %          11,828                       2.4  %
Prior accident year development - non-LPT                 -                         -  %               -                         -  %
Total adjusted losses and LAE(2)                  $ 393,940                      63.9  %       $ 338,348                      67.7  %

(1) Current accident year
(2) See "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" included in this Item 7



The loss and LAE ratio improved 5.6 points when compared to the same 2021
period. The loss and LAE ratio for the year ended 2022 was impacted by 1.4
points of LPT prior accident year development compared to 3.2 points for the
same 2021 period. Additional information regarding the LPT can be found in the
"Loss Portfolio Transfer" discussion included in this Item 7.

The adjusted loss and LAE ratio improved 3.8 points when compared to the same
2021 period. The improvement was primarily driven by (i) a shift in the mix of
business, (ii) continued run-off of exited business, and (iii) lower catastrophe
losses. Catastrophe losses from Hurricane Ian and Winter Storm Elliott added 1.1
points to the loss and LAE ratio compared to the same 2021 period, which was
impacted by 2.4 points of catastrophe losses from tornadoes in the Midwest,
Hurricane Ida and the first quarter winter storms.

Losses and LAE Development


The following table sets forth the presentation of the development of the
ultimate liability by accident year for the years ended December 31, 2022 and
2021:

($ in thousands)                                                   Development
                                                                                                     (Favorable) Adverse
Accident Year                                                                                       2022                2021
Prior                                                                                         $    7,701             $ 27,980
2019                                                                                              22,440               (1,280)
2020                                                                                              (6,756)               1,300
2021                                                                                              (9,000)                   -
Total                                                                $ 14,385      $ 28,000
Reserve development on losses subject to LPT                         $ 

14,385 $ 28,000
Reserve development on losses excluding losses subject to
LPT

                                                                  $      

- $ -

During the year ended December 31, 2022, our net incurred losses for
accident years 2021 and prior developed unfavorably by $14.4 million which was
related to losses subject to the LPT.

Within exited lines, adverse development of $14.5 million was from the 2019
accident year primarily driven by increased frequency and severity in general
and professional liability. The remaining $8.4 million of net adverse
development was from various other accident years.

                                       38
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Within multi-line solutions, favorable development of $10.8 million was from the
2020 through 2021 accident years and was primarily driven by a reduction in
frequency of claims in commercial auto and general liability. The remaining $2.3
million of net adverse development was from various other accident years.

There was no net development in short tail/monoline specialty lines.


During the year ended December 31, 2021, our net incurred losses and LAE for
accident years 2020 and prior developed adversely by $28.0 million driven by
$28.8 million of adverse development in exited lines and $4.8 million of adverse
development in multi-line solutions, partially offset by $5.6 million of
favorable development in short tail lines.

Within exited lines, the $28.8 million of adverse development was primarily
related to the 2013, 2015, and 2018 accident years and was predominantly driven
by increases in both frequency and severity of losses in general liability.
Within multi-line solutions, adverse development of $4.8 million was primarily
related to the 2016 and 2017 accident years and was driven by increased
frequency and severity of claims in commercial auto. Partially offsetting the
adverse development was favorable development of $5.6 million within short tail
lines, primarily related to the 2019 and 2020 accident years, driven by
favorable loss emergence relative to actuarial expectations in property and
accident & health.

Loss Portfolio Transfer


On April 1, 2020, with a valuation date of June 30, 2019, we entered into a LPT
retroactive reinsurance agreement with R&Q Bermuda (SAC) Limited, a third party
reinsurer domiciled in Bermuda that specializes in assuming legacy blocks of
insurance business and running them off. The LPT covers liabilities (including
claim payments, allocated LAE and certain extra-contractual obligations) related
to certain policies issued or assumed for policy years 2017 and prior. The LPT
agreement covers the majority of our exited business. We believe purchasing this
coverage reduces the volatility associated with the covered business produced in
2017 and prior, and has allowed our management team to focus on the continuing
business which we believe provide the best path for continued profitable growth.

As of the Valuation Date, we agreed to cede $153.1 million of Net LPT Reserves
for certain lines of business, primarily related to 2017 and prior policy years,
subject to an aggregate cash deductible of $105 million which was withheld from
the reinsurer. Subsequent to the Valuation Date but prior to the Inception Date,
we strengthened the Net LPT Reserves by $5.5 million. This development resulted
in an increase in the Net LPT Reserves of $5.5 million to $158.6 million.
Consequently, at the Inception Date, the cash remitted to the third party
reinsurer for the cession of the Net LPT reserves was $53.6 million (reflecting
the $158.6 million of Net LPT Reserves less the $105 million cash deductible).

As of the Inception Date, the LPT provided reinsurance protection of
approximately $127.4 million above the Net LPT Reserves, subject to
co-participations at specified amounts, detailed below. We paid $43.5 million in
premium to the reinsurer for this reinsurance protection. This premium payment
of $43.5 million combined with the $53.6 million remitted to the reinsurer
resulted in a total cash transfer of $97.1 million on the Inception Date.

The LPT is structured into two distinct sections with separate and independent
reinsurance structures. Section A (representing $22.2 million of ceded net
reserves at inception of the LPT) is the smaller section of the LPT covering
claims from exited workers' compensation and general liability lines of business
primarily related to business written in policy years 2011 and prior. Section B
(representing $130.9 million of ceded net reserves at inception of the LPT) is a
substantially larger section, covering claims from other exited business and
certain continuing business related to policies written in years 2017 and prior,
principally comprised of general liability and commercial auto lines.

As of December 31, 2022, our net loss reserves subject to the LPT were
$68.6 million. We materially strengthened our reserves subject to the LPT in
line with the in depth actuarial and claims analyses performed specific to our
business subject to the LPT. At the same time, we reduced the number of open
claims by 70.1% since the inception of the LPT.

Section A


Based on the reserves on the Valuation Date, we ceded $22.2 million of net
reserves related to Section A, subject to the aggregate cash deductible. The LPT
provides 100% reinsurance coverage on the first $2.8 million of incurred losses
and LAE above the ceded net reserves for Section A. Above the $2.8 million
coverage layer is a further $5.0 million of reinsurance coverage for which we
retain 50% of the incurred losses and LAE.

In April 2021, we reviewed every open claim for the business covered by
Section A, with the help of a leading independent actuarial firm, to ensure that
our reserves were set to our expected ultimate loss. Based on the review, we
strengthened our reserves subject to Section A. As of December 31, 2022, total
incurred losses and LAE (including claims paid, case reserves and IBNR) were
$34.7 million, which is $4.7 million in excess of our reinsurance coverage under
Section A of the LPT. As a result, should new claims arise or existing claims
develop adversely such that we need to increase our incurred losses and LAE on
business covered by Section A, there would be no further reinsurance coverage on
these policies subject to the LPT.

As of December 31, 2022, paid losses and LAE on policies subject to Section A of
the LPT were $22.0 million, which is $8.0 million below our total reinsurance
coverage under Section A. We believe the ratio of paid losses and LAE to total
incurred losses and LAE of 63.5% as of December 31, 2022, on policies covered
under Section A of the LPT, in combination with the age of the policies
(primarily policy years 2011 and prior) and the declining number of open claims
(Section A open claims have been reduced by 51.8% since the Valuation Date),
underscores the strength of our reserve position on Section A.

The following chart sets forth the Section A reinsurance structure, the paid and
incurred losses and LAE positions within the structure as of December 31, 2022,
and the reduction in open claims from the Valuation Date through December 31,
2022.

[[Image Removed: skwd-20221231_g6.jpg]]

[[Image Removed: skwd-20221231_g7.jpg]]

Section B


Based on the reserves on the Valuation Date, we ceded $130.9 million of net
reserves related to Section B, subject to the aggregate cash deductible. The LPT
provides 100% reinsurance coverage on the first $19.1 million of incurred losses
and LAE above the ceded net reserves for Section B. Above the $19.1 million
layer, a further $70.0 million of reinsurance coverage is provided, for which we
have a 50% co-participation on the incurred losses and LAE in the layer. There
is a further $36.0 million of reinsurance that provides 100% coverage above the
$70.0 million layer.

In September 2021, we reviewed open claims for the business covered by Section
B. Based on the review, we strengthened our reserves subject to Section B. As of
December 31, 2022, total incurred losses and LAE (including claims paid, case
reserves and IBNR) were $220.0 million with the entire $36.0 million of 100%
coverage layer are available should new claims arise or existing claims develop
adversely. As of December 31, 2022, paid losses and LAE on policies subject to
Section B were $164.0 million, which is $92.0 million below our total
reinsurance coverage under Section B, which includes the co-participation
amounts. As with Section A, we believe that the Section B ratio of paid losses
and LAE to total incurred losses and LAE of 74.6% as of December 31, 2022 in
combination with and the rapidly declining number of open claims (reduced by
74.2%) since the Valuation Date underscores the strength of our reserve position
on Section B.

The following chart sets forth the Section B reinsurance structure, the paid and
incurred losses and LAE positions within the structure as of December 31, 2022,
and the reduction in open claims from the Valuation Date through December 31,
2022:

[[Image Removed: skwd-20221231_g8.jpg]]

[[Image Removed: skwd-20221231_g9.jpg]]

Expense Ratio

The following table sets forth the components of the expense ratio for the years
ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                    2022                                         2021
                                                                             % of                                         % of
                                                                          Net Earned                                   Net Earned
($ in thousands)                                     Expenses              Premiums               Expenses              Premiums
Net policy acquisition expenses                    $  65,695                      10.6  %       $  47,061                       9.4  %
Other operating and general expenses                 116,476                      18.9  %          91,437                      18.3  %
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance
expenses                                             182,171                      29.5  %         138,498                      27.7  %
Commission and fee income                             (5,199)                     (0.8) %          (3,973)                     (0.8) %
Total net expenses                                 $ 176,972                      28.7  %       $ 134,525                      26.9  %


The expense ratio increased 1.8 points when compared to the same 2021 period.
The increase in the expense ratio was primarily driven by changes in our mix of
business resulting in higher net policy acquisition expenses combined with
higher operating expenses due to our continued investment in new underwriters
and underwriting teams.

                                       39
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Investment Results

The following table sets forth the components of net investment income and net
investment (losses) gains for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                  2022                                     2021
                                                        Net                                      Net
                                                    Investment              Net               Investment              Net
($ in thousands)                                      Income               Yield                Income               Yield
Cash and short-term investments(1)                 $    1,443                  0.8  %       $       180                  0.1  %
Core fixed income                                         16,544               3.0  %             8,812                  2.3  %
Opportunistic fixed income                                16,784               9.2  %            12,571                  8.6  %
Equities                                                   2,160               1.4  %             3,083                  2.5  %
Net investment income                              $   36,931                  3.4  %       $    24,646                  2.7  %
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities
still held                                         $  (15,058)                              $    15,251
Net realized (losses) gains                              (647)                                    1,856
Net investment (losses) gains                      $  (15,705)                              $    17,107

(1) excludes restricted cash



Net investment income was $36.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2022,
compared to $24.6 million for the same 2021 period. The increase in net
investment income was driven by (i) a larger asset base in our core fixed income
portfolio as we increase our allocation to this part of our investment
portfolio, (ii) higher net investment yields in our core fixed income portfolio
of 3.0% compared to 2.3% for the same 2021 period, and (iii) an increase in
income from the opportunistic fixed income portfolio due to market appreciation
of underlying investments. Our investment portfolio had a net investment yield
of 3.4% for the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to 2.7% for the same 2021
period.

Investments

Composition of Investment Portfolio

The following table sets forth the components of our investment portfolio at
carrying value at December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                          2022                         2021
                                                   Fair           % of          Fair          % of
     ($ in thousands)                              value          total         value         total

Cash and short-term investments(1) $ 166,706 14.8 %

$ 207,024 20.9 %

     Core fixed income                             607,572        53.9  %  

458,351 46.2 %

     Opportunistic fixed income                    196,021        17.3  %  

168,058 17.0 %

     Equities                                      157,506        14.0  %  

158,033 15.9 %

     Total investment portfolio                $ 1,127,805       100.0  %  

$ 991,466 100.0 %

(1) Excludes restricted cash



Our fixed maturity securities, comprised of both core fixed income and
opportunistic fixed income, comprised 71.2% and 63.2% of our total investment
portfolio as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, and had a weighted
average effective duration of 3.1 years and 2.8 years as of December 31, 2022
and 2021, respectively, and an average core fixed income credit rating of "AA"
(Standard & Poor's) as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.

Core fixed income


The core fixed income portfolio consists primarily of investment grade fixed
income securities which are predominantly highly-rated and liquid bonds. Our
objective is to earn attractive risk-adjusted returns with a low risk of loss of
principal. The portfolio is managed by third party managers. The average
duration of the portfolio was approximately 4.3 years and 4.3 years,
respectively, as of December 31, 2022 and 2021.

                                       40
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
The following table sets forth the components of our core fixed income portfolio
at December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                     2022                                          2021
                                                                            % of total                                    % of total
($ in thousands)                                     Fair value             fair value             Fair value             fair value
U.S. government securities                          $   48,541                       8.0  %       $   49,263                      10.7  %
Corporate securities and miscellaneous                 235,129                      38.7  %          154,163                      33.6  %
Municipal securities                                    57,727                       9.5  %           56,942                      12.5  %
Residential mortgage-backed securities                 119,856                      19.7  %          103,735                      22.6  %
Commercial mortgage-backed securities                   36,495                       6.0  %           14,484                       3.2  %
Asset-backed securities                                109,824                      18.1  %           79,764                      17.4  %
Core fixed income securities, available for
sale                                                $  607,572                     100.0  %       $  458,351                     100.0  %


The weighted average credit rating of the portfolio was "AA" by Standard &
Poor's Financial Services, LLC ("Standard & Poor's") at December 31, 2022 and
2021. The following table sets forth the credit quality of our core fixed income
portfolio at December 31, 2022 and 2021, as rated by Standard & Poor's or
equivalent designation:

                                          2022                            2021
($ in thousands)               Fair value      % of total      Fair value      % of total
AAA                           $  283,733           46.7  %    $  223,404           48.7  %
AA                                74,604           12.3  %        67,157           14.7  %
A                                134,175           22.1  %        87,337           19.1  %
BBB                               88,369           14.5  %        76,835           16.8  %
BB and Lower                      26,691            4.4  %         3,618            0.8  %
Total core fixed income       $  607,572          100.0  %    $  458,351          100.0  %


Opportunistic fixed income

The opportunistic fixed income portfolio is managed by Arena which is affiliated
with Westaim, our largest shareholder. The opportunistic fixed income portfolio
consists of separately managed accounts, limited partnerships, promissory notes
and equity interests. The underlying securities are primarily floating rate
senior secured loans, comprised of short duration, collateralized,
asset-oriented credit investments designed to generate attractive risk-adjusted
returns. Investments are backed by a significant amount of collateral and
contain strong covenants with a typical loan-to-value of 66% or better. The
limited partnerships are subject to future increases or decreases in asset value
and may exhibit volatile results as asset values are monetized and the resultant
income is distributed. As of December 31, 2022, the opportunistic fixed income
portfolio consisted of three components: diversified asset based lending
(54.6%), commercial mortgage loans (26.5%) and cash and cash equivalents
(18.9%). The diversified asset based lending portfolio includes floating rate
senior secured asset-based loans with significant amounts of collateral and
strong covenants.

The following table sets forth the components of our opportunistic fixed income
portfolio by industry sector at December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                  2022                                      2021
                                                       Fair                 % of                 Fair                 % of
($ in thousands)                                      Value                Total                Value                Total
Real Estate                                        $  90,370                   46.1  %       $  75,305                   44.8  %
Oil & Gas                                             20,725                   10.6  %          20,321                   12.1  %
Banking, Finance & Insurance                          13,870                    7.1  %          13,683                    8.1  %
Other sectors(1)                                      34,072                   17.4  %          16,936                   10.1  %
Cash and cash equivalents(2)                          36,984                   18.8  %          41,813                   24.9  %
Opportunistic fixed income                         $ 196,021                  100.0  %       $ 168,058                  100.0  %

(1) Other Sectors primarily includes Aerospace & Defense, Business Services, Retail, Commercial & Industrial and Environmental.
(2) Includes cash on settlements that have not yet been redeployed.

The average duration of the portfolio is approximately 1.4 years and 1.5 years
as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.

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  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Equities

The equities portfolio primarily consists of domestic preferred stocks, common
equities, exchange traded funds, limited partnerships, limited liability
corporations and other types of equity interests 76.3% of which are publicly
traded. During 2021, we initiated a tail-risk management strategy that is
designed to provide some protection for the equity portfolio if there is a
significant decline in the S&P 500 within a 30 day period. We continued this
strategy in 2022 and as of December 31, 2022, the annual cost of the strategy
was approximately $3.0 million. The portfolio is directed internally and
includes both self-managed investments and portfolios managed by third-party
investment management firms.

The following table sets forth the components of our equities portfolio by
security type at December 31, 2022 and 2021:

                                                                    2022                                         2021
                                                       Fair               % of total                Fair               % of total
($ in thousands)                                      value               fair value               value               fair value
Domestic common equities                           $  76,929                      48.8  %       $  82,895                      52.5  %
International common equities                         34,468                      21.9  %          16,911                      10.7  %
Preferred stock                                        8,772                       5.6  %          18,166                      11.5  %
Other(1)                                              37,337                      23.7  %          40,061                      25.3  %
Equities                                           $ 157,506                     100.0  %       $ 158,033                     100.0  %

(1) Other includes limited partnerships, limited liability companies and other equity interests



Market Risk

Market risk is the risk of economic losses due to adverse changes in the
estimated fair value of a financial instrument as the result of changes in
interest rates, equity prices, foreign currency exchange rates and commodity
prices. The primary components of market risk affecting us are credit risk and
interest rate risk. We do not have significant exposure to foreign currency
exchange rate risk or commodity risk.

Credit risk


Credit risk is the potential loss resulting from adverse changes in an issuer's
ability to repay its debt obligations. We have exposure to credit risk as a
holder of debt instruments in our core fixed income and opportunistic fixed
income portfolios. Our risk management strategy and investment policy is to
invest primarily in debt instruments of high credit quality issuers and to limit
the amount of credit exposure with respect to particular ratings categories and
any one issuer. At December 31, 2022, our core fixed income portfolio had an
average rating of "AA," with approximately 81% of securities in that portfolio
rated "A" or better by at least one nationally recognized rating organization.
Our policy is to invest in investment grade fixed income securities which are
high quality and liquid, providing a stable income stream, supplemented by
opportunistic fixed income and equity securities, with the objective of further
enhancing the portfolio's diversification and risk-adjusted returns. At
December 31, 2022, approximately 4.4% of our core fixed income portfolio was
unrated or rated below investment-grade. Through our investment managers, we
monitor the financial condition of all of the issuers of securities in our
portfolio.

In addition, we are subject to credit risk with respect to our third-party
reinsurers. Although our third-party reinsurers are obligated to reimburse us to
the extent we cede risk to them, we are ultimately liable to our policyholders
on all risks we have ceded. As a result, reinsurance contracts do not limit our
ultimate obligations to pay claims covered under the insurance policies we
issue, and we might not collect amounts recoverable from our reinsurers. We
address this credit risk by seeking to purchase reinsurance from reinsurers that
are rated at least "A-" (Excellent) or better by A.M. Best. We also perform,
along with our reinsurance broker, periodic credit reviews of our reinsurers. At
December 31, 2022, 99% of our reinsurance recoverables were either derived from
reinsurers rated A- (Excellent) by A.M. Best, or better, or were collateralized
through funds held, trusts and letters of credit by the reinsurer. If one of our
reinsurers suffers a credit downgrade, we may consider various options to lessen
the risk of asset impairment, including commutation, novation and letters of
credit.

Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk is the risk that we will incur economic losses due to adverse
changes in interest rates. The primary market risk to our investment portfolio
is interest rate risk associated with investments in fixed income securities.
Fluctuations in interest rates have a direct effect on the market valuation of
these securities. When market interest rates rise, the fair value of our
securities decreases. Conversely, as interest rates fall, the fair value of our
securities increases. We manage this interest rate risk by investing in
securities with varied maturity dates and by managing the duration of our

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investment portfolio in directional relation to the duration of our reserves.
Expressed in years, duration is the weighted average payment period of cash
flows, where the weighting is based on the present value of the cash flows. We
set duration targets for our core fixed income investment portfolio after
consideration of the estimated duration of our liabilities and other factors.
Our fixed maturity securities had a weighted average effective duration of
3.1 years as of December 31, 2022.

We had fixed income securities that were subject to interest rate risk with a
fair value of $607.6 million at December 31, 2022. Our opportunistic fixed
income securities are excluded from our interest rate sensitivity analysis as
they are primarily floating rate and treated as held to maturity securities.

The following table sets forth what changes might occur in the value of our core
fixed income portfolio given hypothetical changes in interest rates as of
December 31, 2022:

                                                                    Estimated %
                                                 Estimated           Increase
                               Estimated           Change           (Decrease)
($ in thousands)               Fair Value      in Fair Value       in Fair Value
300 basis point increase      $  540,703      $      (66,869)            (11.0) %
200 basis point increase      $  560,411      $      (47,161)             (7.8) %
100 basis point increase      $  582,701      $      (24,871)             (4.1) %
No change                     $  607,572      $            -               0.0  %
100 basis point decrease      $  635,026      $       27,454               4.5  %
200 basis point decrease      $  665,062      $       57,490               9.5  %
300 basis point decrease      $  697,679      $       90,107              14.8  %


Changes in interest rates will have an immediate effect on comprehensive income
and stockholders' equity but will not ordinarily have an immediate effect on net
income. Actual results may differ from the hypothetical change in market rates
assumed in the table above. This sensitivity analysis does not reflect the
results of any action that we may take to mitigate such hypothetical losses in
fair value.

Equity price risk

Equity price risk represents the potential economic losses due to adverse
changes in equity security prices. At December 31, 2022, approximately 16.4% of
the fair value of our investment portfolio (excluding cash and cash equivalents
and short-term investments) was invested in equity securities. We manage equity
price risk through portfolio diversification and maintain a tail-risk management
strategy that is designed to provide some protection for the equity portfolio if
there is a significant decline in the S&P 500 within a 30 day period.

Other Items

Income Taxes


Income tax expense was $10.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2022
compared to $10.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2021. Our effective
tax rate was 20.9% for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to 20.7% for
the year ended December 31, 2021. The change in our effective tax rate in 2022
when compared to 2021 was primarily due to the relationship of taxable to
non-taxable income. The Company's provision for income taxes generally does not
deviate substantially from the statutory tax rate. The effective tax rate may
vary slightly from the statutory rate due to tax adjustments for tax-exempt
income and dividends-received deduction.

See Note 14, "Income Taxes" to our consolidated financial statements included in
Item 8 of this Form 10-K for a reconciliation between our actual federal income
tax expense and the amount computed at the indicated statutory rate for the
years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Sources and Uses of Funds


We are organized as a holding company with our operations primarily conducted by
our wholly-owned insurance subsidiaries, HSIC, IIC, and GMIC, which are
domiciled in Texas, and OSIC, which is domiciled in Oklahoma. Accordingly, the
holding company may receive cash through (1) corporate service fees from our
operating subsidiaries, (2) payments pursuant to our consolidated tax allocation
agreement, (3) dividends from our subsidiaries, subject to certain limitations
discussed below regarding dividends from our insurance subsidiaries, (4) loans
from banks, (5) draws on a revolving loan agreement, and (6) issuance of equity
and debt securities. We also may use the proceeds from these sources

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Table of Conte nt s
to contribute funds to insurance subsidiaries in order to support premium
growth, pay dividends and taxes and for other business purposes.


Skyward Service Company receives corporate service fees from the operating
subsidiaries to reimburse it for most of the operating expenses that it incurs.
Reimbursement of expenses through corporate service fees is based on the actual
costs that we expect to incur with no mark-up above our expected costs.

We file a consolidated U.S. federal income tax return with our subsidiaries, and
under our corporate tax allocation agreement, each participant is charged or
refunded taxes according to the amount that the participant would have paid or
received had it filed on a separate return basis with the Internal Revenue
Service (the "IRS").

Applicable state insurance laws restrict the ability of the insurance
subsidiaries to declare stockholder dividends without prior regulatory approval.
Applicable state insurance regulators require insurance companies to maintain
specified levels of statutory capital and surplus. Dividend payments are further
limited to that part of available policyholder surplus which is derived from net
profits on an insurer's business.

Insurance regulators have broad powers to prevent reduction of statutory surplus
to inadequate levels, and there is no assurance that dividends of the maximum
amounts calculated under any applicable formula would be permitted. State
insurance regulatory authorities that have jurisdiction over the payment of
dividends by our insurance subsidiaries may in the future adopt statutory
provisions more restrictive than those currently in effect. Our insurance
subsidiaries did not pay dividends to us for the years ended December 31, 2022
or 2021. See Note 25, "Regulatory Matters" to our consolidated financial
statements included in Item 8 of this Form 10-K for further information
regarding our insurance companies.

As of December 31, 2022, our holding company had $8.9 million in cash and
investments compared to $6.0 million as of December 31, 2021.

We believe that we have sufficient liquidity available to meet our operating
cash needs and obligations and committed capital expenditures for the next
12 months.

Cash Flows


Our most significant source of cash is from premiums received from our insureds,
which, for most policies, we receive at the beginning of the coverage period,
net of the related commission amount for the policies. Our most significant cash
outflow is for claims that arise when a policyholder incurs an insured loss.
Because the payment of claims occurs after the receipt of the premium,
often years later, we invest the cash in various investment securities that
generally earn interest and dividends. We also use cash to pay for operating
expenses such as salaries, rent and taxes and capital expenditures such as
technology systems. We use reinsurance to manage the risk that we take on our
policies. We cede, or pay out, part of the premiums we receive to our reinsurers
and collect cash back when losses subject to our reinsurance coverage are paid.

The timing of our cash flows from operating activities can vary among periods
due to the timing by which payments are made or received. Some of our payments
and receipts, including loss settlements and subsequent reinsurance receipts,
can be significant, and as a result their timing can influence cash flows from
operating activities in any given period. Management believes that cash receipts
from premiums and proceeds from investment income are sufficient to cover cash
outflows in the foreseeable future.

The following table sets forth our cash flows for the years ended December 31,
2022 and 2021:

       ($ in thousands)                                         2022           2021

Cash and cash equivalents provided by (used in):

       Operating activities                                  $ 208,938      $ 175,285
       Investing activities                                   (193,381)      (183,014)
       Financing activities                                      2,180          1,380
       Change in cash and cash equivalents                   $  17,737      $  (6,349)


The increase in cash provided by operating activities in 2022 and 2021 was
primarily due to the timing of premium receipts, claim payments and reinsurance
activity. Cash flows from operations in each of the past two years were used
primarily to fund investing activities.

The change in net cash used in investing activities from 2022 to 2021 was
primarily driven by increases in the purchases of fixed maturities.

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  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Credit Agreements

On December 11, 2019, we entered into a credit agreement with Prosperity Bank
which provided us with a $50.0 million term loan (the "Term Loan") and a
$50.0 million revolving line of credit (the "Revolver") with additional capacity
up to $75.0 million.

The Term Loan

The interest rate on the Term Loan is the lesser of the one-month LIBOR (4.39%
on December 31, 2022) plus the "Applicable Margin," which is defined as 1.65%,
or the Highest Lawful Rate. The "Highest Lawful Rate" is defined as the lesser
of (a) (i) the "weekly ceiling" as defined within Section 303.003 of the Texas
Finance code, as amended or (ii) the "annualized ceiling" as defined within
Section 303.103 of the Texas Finance Code, as amended and (b) (i) 24% if the
principal is less than $250 thousand or (ii) 28% if the principal is greater
than $250 thousand. Interest-only payments are due and payable on a quarterly
basis through December 31, 2024. As of December 31, 2022 the principal balance
on the Term Loan was $50.0 million, which is due December 31, 2024.

The Revolver


The interest rate on the Revolver is the lesser of the prime rate, as published
by the Wall Street Journal, or the one-month LIBOR (4.39% on December 31, 2022)
plus the Applicable Margin, which is defined as the lesser of 1.65%, or the
Highest Lawful Rate. The revolving promissory note includes a fee of 0.25% on
the unused portion. Interest-only payments are due and payable on a quarterly
basis through December 31, 2024. As of December 31, 2022, there was no
outstanding balance on the Revolver compared to a contractual capacity of
$50.0 million. Subject to lender approval, we have a right to increase the
capacity to $75.0 million.

Borrowings under the Term Loan and Revolver may be used to refinance debt and
for general corporate purposes.


Included in the Credit Agreement is a provision that allows for us to issue up
to $20.0 million of letters of credit ("LOCs"). Any amounts drawn on the LOCs
must either be repaid, or the balance constitutes additional borrowings under
the Revolver. As of December 31, 2022, there were no LOCs issued.

Trust Preferred


In August 2006, we received $58.0 million of proceeds from a debenture offering
through a statutory trust, Delos Capital Trust (the "Trust"). The sole asset of
the Trust consists of Fixed/Floating Rate Junior Subordinated Deferrable
Interest Debentures (the "Trust Preferred") with a principal amount of
$59.8 million issued by us and cash of $1.8 million from the issuance of Trust
common shares purchased by us equal to 3% of the Trust capitalization. The Trust
Preferred are an unsecured obligation, are redeemable, and have a maturity date
of September 15, 2036. Interest on the Trust Preferred is payable quarterly at
an annual rate based on the three-month LIBOR (4.77% at December 31, 2022), plus
3.4%.

Subordinated Debt

In May 2019, we issued unsecured subordinated notes (the "Notes") with an
aggregate principal amount of $20.0 million. Interest on the subordinated notes
is 7.25% fixed for the first 8 years and 8.25% fixed thereafter. Early
retirement of the debt ahead of the eight (8) year commitment requires all
interest payments to be paid in full, as well as the return of all capital.
Principal payment is due at maturity on May 24, 2039 and interest is payable
quarterly.

At December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, the ratio of total debt outstanding,
including the Term Loan, the Revolver, the Trust Preferred and the Notes, to
total capitalization (defined as total debt plus stockholders' equity, plus any
temporary equity) was 23.4% and 23.2%, respectively.

Contractual Obligations and Commitments

The following table sets forth our contractual obligations and commercial
commitments by due date as of December 31, 2022:

                                             Payments due by period
                                                    Less Than       One Year
($ in thousands)                      Total         One Year         or More

Reserves for losses and LAE $ 1,141,757 $ 293,647 $ 848,110
Long-term debt

                        129,794              -          

129,794

Interest on debt obligations 110,879 9,383 101,496
Operating lease obligations

             9,199          2,206            6,993
Total                             $ 1,391,629      $ 305,236      $ 1,086,393


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Reserves for losses and LAE represent our best estimate of the ultimate cost of
settling reported and unreported claims and related expenses. Estimating
reserves for losses and LAE is based on various complex and subjective
judgments. Actual losses and settlement expenses paid may deviate, perhaps
substantially, from the reserve estimates reflected in our financial statements.
Similarly, the timing for payment of our estimated losses is not fixed and is
not determinable on an individual or aggregate basis. The assumptions used in
estimating the payments due by period are based on our own, industry and peer
group claims payment experience. Due to the uncertainty inherent in the process
of estimating the timing of such payments, there is a risk that the amounts paid
in any period will be significantly different than the amounts disclosed above.
Amounts disclosed above are gross of anticipated amounts recoverable from
reinsurers. Reinsurance balances recoverable on reserves for losses and LAE are
reported separately as assets, instead of being netted with the related
liabilities, since reinsurance does not discharge us of our liability to
policyholders. Reinsurance balances recoverable on reserves for paid and unpaid
losses and LAE totaled $581.4 million and $536.3 million at December 31, 2022
and December 31, 2021, respectively.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates


We identified the accounting estimates below as critical to the understanding of
our financial position and results of operations. Critical accounting estimates
are defined as those estimates that are both important to the portrayal of our
financial condition and results of operations and require us to exercise
significant judgment. We use significant judgment concerning future results and
developments in applying these critical accounting estimates and in preparing
our consolidated financial statements. These judgments and estimates affect our
reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses and the
disclosure of our material contingent assets and liabilities. Actual results may
differ materially from the estimates and assumptions used in preparing the
consolidated financial statements. We evaluate our estimates regularly using
information that we believe to be relevant. For a detailed discussion of our
accounting policies, see Note 2, "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" to
our consolidated financial statements included in Item 8 of this Form 10-K.

Reserves for unpaid losses and LAE


The reserves for unpaid losses and LAE is the largest and most complex estimate
in our consolidated balance sheet. The reserves for unpaid losses and LAE
represent our estimated ultimate cost of all unreported and reported but unpaid
insured claims and the cost to adjust these losses that have occurred as of or
before the balance sheet date. We do not discount our reserves for losses and
LAE to reflect estimated present value. We estimate the reserves using
individual case-basis valuations of reported claims and statistical analyses and
various actuarial procedures. Those estimates are based on our historical
information, industry and peer group information and our estimates of future
trends in variable factors such as loss severity, loss frequency and other
factors such as inflation. We regularly review our estimates and adjust them as
necessary as experience develops or as new information becomes known to us.
Additionally, during the loss settlement period, it often becomes necessary to
refine and adjust the estimates of liability on a claim either upward or
downward. Even after such adjustments, the ultimate liability may exceed or be
less than the revised estimates. Accordingly, the ultimate settlement of losses
and the related LAE may vary significantly from the estimate included in our
financial statements.

We categorize our reserves for unpaid losses and LAE into two types: case
reserves and IBNR.

The following table sets forth our gross and net reserves for unpaid losses and
LAE at December 31, 2022 and 2021:


                                                                  2022                                                                                  

2021

($ in thousands)                Gross               % of Total               Net               % of Total              Gross              % of Total               Net               % of Total
Case reserves               $   485,143                    42.5  %       $ 269,273                    38.2  %       $ 451,446                    46.1  %       $ 239,013                    40.0  %
IBNR                            656,614                    57.5  %         436,498                    61.8  %         528,103                    53.9  %         359,198                    60.0  %
Total                       $ 1,141,757                   100.0  %       $ 705,771                   100.0  %       $ 979,549                   100.0  %       $ 598,211                   100.0  %


Case reserves are established for individual claims that have been reported to
us. We are notified of losses by our insureds or their agents or our brokers.
Based on the information provided, we establish case reserves by estimating the
ultimate losses from the claim, including defense costs associated with the
ultimate settlement of the claim. Our claims department personnel use their
knowledge of the specific claim along with advice from internal and external
experts, including underwriters and legal counsel, to estimate the expected
ultimate losses. In limited circumstances, we utilize the services of TPAs to
assist in the adjustment of claims. Our internal claims managers oversee TPA
activities and monitor their individual claim handling activities to our
prescribed standards.

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  Table of     Conte    nt    s
Our IBNR reserves are developed in accordance with Actuarial Standards of
Practice promulgated by the American Academy of Actuaries. Our reserve review is
performed by our Reserve Committee that utilizes several accepted loss reserving
methods to arrive at our best estimate of loss reserves. We give consideration
to the relative strengths and weaknesses of each of the methods in deriving our
actuarial best estimate of the liabilities. Where we have limited years of loss
experience compared to the period over which we expect losses to be reported, we
use industry and/or peer-group data in addition to our own data as a basis for
selecting the parameters underlying our reserving methods. We monitor loss
emergence daily. We carefully consider other internal or external factors such
as underwriting, claims handling, economic, or environmental changes that could
adversely affect the accuracy of the assumptions underlying our standard
actuarial methods and when necessary we will adjust these assumptions, methods,
and/or procedures to ensure that they appropriately reflect these changing
conditions. The duration of loss reserves was 2.2 years as of December 31, 2022.

Our Reserve Committee includes our Chief Actuary, Chief Risk Officer, Chief
Financial Officer and Chief Claims Officer. The Reserve Committee meets
quarterly to review the actuarial reserving recommendations made by the Chief
Actuary and uses their best judgment to determine the best estimate to be
recorded for the reserve for losses and LAE on our balance sheet. In
establishing the quarterly actuarial recommendation for the reserves for losses
and LAE, our actuary estimates an initial expected ultimate loss ratio for each
of our underwriting divisions. Input from our underwriting and claims
departments, including premium pricing assumptions and historical experience, is
considered by our actuary in estimating the initial expected loss ratios.
Multiple actuarial methods are used to estimate the reserve for losses and LAE.
These methods utilize, to varying degrees, the initial expected loss ratio,
detailed statistical analysis of past claims reporting and payment patterns,
claims frequency and severity, paid loss experience, industry loss experience,
and changes in market conditions, policy forms, exclusions, and exposures. The
actuarial methods used to estimate losses and LAE reserves are:

•Reported and/or Paid Loss Development Methods - Ultimate losses are estimated
based on historical reported and/or paid loss reporting patterns. Reported
losses are the sum of paid and case losses. Industry development patterns are
substituted for historical development patterns when sufficient historical data
is not available.

•Reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson Methods - Ultimate losses are estimated as the
sum of cumulative reported losses and estimated IBNR losses. IBNR losses are
estimated based on historical development patterns and one or more of the
following: expected average severity and estimated ultimate claims counts,
expected pure premium, and expected loss ratios underlying our loss cost
multipliers.

•Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method - Under this method, ultimate losses are
estimated as the sum of cumulative paid losses and estimated unpaid losses.
Unpaid losses are estimated based on the expected loss ratios underlying our
loss cost multipliers, and selected industry development patterns of paid
losses.

We utilize each of these methods in our comprehensive review of reserves. When
evaluating reserves related to less mature policy years, we utilize the
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method as the primary method for our ultimate loss
indications. As we move to more mature policy years, we transition to the
Reported and/or Paid Loss Development Methods. We primarily rely on reported
methods where case reserving is consistently applied across policy years,
however, when there is a change in reserving philosophy we will blend both
reported and paid methods in our evaluation of ultimate loss indications.

Our reserves are driven by several important factors, including litigation and
regulatory trends, legislative activity, climate change, social and economic
patterns and claims inflation assumptions. Our reserve estimates reflect current
inflation in legal claims' settlements and assume we will not be subject to
losses from significant new legal liability theories. Our reserve estimates
assume that there will not be significant changes in the regulatory and
legislative environment. The impact of potential changes in the regulatory or
legislative environment is difficult to quantify in the absence of specific,
significant new regulation or legislation. In the event of significant new
regulation or legislation, we will attempt to quantify its impact on our
business, but no assurance can be given that our attempt to quantify such inputs
will be accurate or successful.

Although we believe that our reserve estimates are reasonable, it is possible
that our actual loss experience may not conform to our assumptions.
Specifically, our actual ultimate loss ratio could differ from our initial
expected loss ratio or our actual reporting and payment patterns could differ
from our expected reporting and payment patterns, which are based on our own
data and industry data. Accordingly, the ultimate settlement of losses and the
related LAE may vary significantly from the estimates included in our financial
statements. We regularly review our estimates and adjust them as necessary as
experience develops or as new information becomes known to us. Such adjustments
are included in the results of current operations.

The table below quantifies the impact of potential reserve deviations from our
carried reserve at December 31, 2022. We applied sensitivity factors to incurred
losses for the three most recent accident years and to the carried reserve for
all prior accident years combined. In the selection of the volatility factors,
we have considered the potential impact of changes

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  Table of     Conte    nt    s
in current loss trends, pricing trends, and other actuarial reserving
assumptions. The aggregate development depicted in the sensitivity analysis is
consistent with the average development in recent calendar periods and a
reasonable depiction of the potential volatility of the reserve estimates for
the current calendar period. We believe that potential changes such as these
would not have a material impact on our liquidity.

($ in thousands)                                                                       December 31, 2022                       Potential Impact on 2022
                                                              Net
                                                           Ultimate                  Net
                                                           Loss and               Ultimate
                                                              LAE                 Incurred            Net Loss
                                    Accident              Sensitivity            Losses and           and LAE              Pre-tax              Stockholders'
Sensitivity                           Year                  Factor                   LAE              Reserve               income                Equity(1)
Sample increases                      2022                         4.0  %       $  379,083          $ 288,748          $      15,163          $       11,979
                                      2021                         3.0  %          324,882            182,085                  9,746                   7,700
                                      2020                         2.0  %          295,599             78,813                  5,912                   4,670
                                     Prior                         1.0  %                -            156,787                  1,568                   1,239

Sample decreases                      2022                        (4.0) %          379,083            288,748                (15,163)                (11,979)
                                      2021                        (3.0) %          324,882            182,085                 (9,746)                 (7,700)
                                      2020                        (2.0) %          295,599             78,813                 (5,912)                 (4,670)
                                     Prior                        (1.0) %                -            156,787                 (1,568)                 (1,239)

(1) The effective rate was consistent with the U.S. corporate income tax rate of 21% and is used to estimate the potential impact to stockholders' equity.



The amount by which estimated losses differ from those originally reported for a
period is known as "development." Development is unfavorable when the losses
ultimately settle for more than the amount reserved or subsequent estimates
indicate a basis for reserve increases on unresolved claims. Development is
favorable when losses ultimately settle for less than the amount reserved or
subsequent estimates indicate a basis for reducing loss reserves on unresolved
claims. We reflect favorable or unfavorable development of loss reserves in the
results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.

Goodwill


Goodwill and intangible assets are recorded as a result of a business
combination. Goodwill represents the excess of the purchase price over the fair
value of the assets acquired and liabilities assumed. We amortize identifiable
intangible assets with a finite useful life over the period that the intangible
asset is expected to contribute directly or indirectly to its future cash flows;
however, we do not amortize indefinite lived intangible assets.

We evaluate goodwill and identifiable intangible assets for recoverability
annually in the fourth quarter or on an interim basis should events or changes
in circumstances indicate that a carrying amount may not be recoverable.


To test for impairment, a qualitative assessment is performed to determine if it
is more likely-than-not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its
carrying value, including goodwill. This initial assessment includes, among
other factors, consideration of: (i) past, current and projected future earnings
and equity; (ii) recent trends and market conditions; and (iii) valuation
metrics involving similar companies that are publicly traded and acquisitions of
similar companies, if available. If the more likely-than-not threshold is met, a
quantitative impairment test is performed by comparing the estimated fair value
with the carrying value. If the carrying value of the net assets associated with
the reporting unit exceeds the fair value of the reporting unit, goodwill is
considered impaired and will be determined as the amount by which the reporting
unit's carrying value exceeds its fair value, not to exceed the carrying amount
of goodwill.

Our reporting unit is at the underwriting division level; this is one level
below the consolidated group where the underwriting division represents a
business and discrete financial information is available and reviewed regularly
by underwriting management. Determining the fair value of its reporting units is
subjective in nature and involves the use of significant estimates and
assumptions, including projected net cash flows, discount and long-term growth
rates.

We determine the fair value of our reporting units based on an income approach
and market approach, whereby the fair value of the reporting unit is derived
from the present value of estimated future cash flows associated with the
reporting unit. The assumptions about estimated cash flows include factors such
as future premiums, loss and LAE expenses, general and administrative expenses
and industry trends. We consider historical rates and current market conditions
when determining the discount and long-term growth rates to use in its analysis.

                                       48
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Table of     Conte    nt    s
We consider other valuation methods if the facts and circumstances indicate
these methods provide a more representative approximation of fair value. Changes
in these estimates based on evolving economic conditions or business strategies
could result in material impairment charges in future periods. We base our fair
value estimates on assumptions we believes to be reasonable. Actual results may
differ from those estimates.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements


We currently qualify as an "emerging growth company" under the Jumpstart Our
Business Startups Act of 2012, or the JOBS Act. Accordingly, we are provided the
option to adopt new or revised accounting guidance either (i) within the same
periods as those otherwise applicable to non-emerging growth companies or
(ii) within the same time periods as private companies. We have elected to avail
ourselves of this extended transition period and, as a result, we will not be
required to adopt new or revised accounting standards on the relevant dates on
which adoption of such standards is required for other public companies.

We will remain an emerging growth company until the earliest of (i) the last day
of the fiscal year in which we have total annual gross revenues of
$1.235 billion or more; (ii) the last day of our fiscal year following the fifth
anniversary of the date of the completion of this offering; (iii) the date on
which we have issued more than $1 billion in nonconvertible debt during the
previous three years; and (iv) the date on which we are deemed to be a large
accelerated filer under the rules of the SEC.

In June 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-13, Measurement of Credit Losses on
Financial Instruments (Topic 326). ASU 2016-13 requires organizations to
estimate credit losses on certain types of financial instruments, including
receivables and available-for-sale debt securities, by introducing an approach
based on expected losses. The expected loss approach will require entities to
incorporate considerations of historical information, current information, and
reasonable and supportable forecasts. The guidance is effective for fiscal years
beginning after December 15, 2022. The Company will adopt this ASU effective
January 1, 2023 using the modified retrospective approach. The Company expects
to recognize an increase in the allowance for uncollectible reinsurance of
approximately $2.3 million and an increase in accumulated deficit of
approximately $2.3 million, net of tax.

Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

Qualitative and Quantitative Disclosures about Market Risk are included in Item
7 of this Form 10-K under "Investments-Market Risk."

                                       49

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table of Conte nt s

Older

Hallmark Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Results

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HALLMARK FINANCIAL SERVICES INC – 10-K – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

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