RLI CORP - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations. - Insurance News

Forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities
Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 appear
throughout this report. These statements relate to our current expectations,
beliefs, intentions, goals or strategies regarding the future and are based on
certain underlying assumptions by the Company. These forward looking statements
generally include words such as "expect," "predict," "estimate," "will,"
"should," "anticipate," "believe" and similar expressions. Such assumptions are,
in turn, based on information available and internal estimates and analyses of
general economic conditions, competitive factors, conditions specific to the
property and casualty insurance and reinsurance industries, claims development
and the impact thereof on our loss reserves, the adequacy and financial security
of our reinsurance programs, developments in the securities market and the
impact on our investment portfolio, regulatory changes and conditions and other
factors. These assumptions are subject to various risks, uncertainties and other
factors, including, without limitation those set forth in "Item 1A. Risk
Factors" within the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,
2020 and Part II within this report. Actual results could differ materially from
those expressed in, or implied by, these forward looking statements. We assume
no obligation to update any such statements. You should review the various
risks, uncertainties and other factors listed from time to time in our
Securities and Exchange Commission filings.



OVERVIEW

RLI Corp. is a U.S.-based, specialty insurance company that underwrites select
property and casualty insurance through major subsidiaries collectively known as
RLI Insurance Group (Group). Our focus is on niche markets and developing unique
products that are tailored to customers' needs. We hire underwriters and claim
examiners with deep expertise and provide exceptional customer service and
support. We maintain a highly diverse product portfolio and underwrite for
profit in all market conditions. In 2020, we achieved our 25th consecutive year
of underwriting profitability. Over the 25-year period, we averaged an 88.4
combined ratio. This drives our ability to provide shareholder returns in three
different ways: the underwriting income itself, net investment income from our
investment portfolio and long-term appreciation in our equity portfolio.

We measure the results of our insurance operations by monitoring growth and
profitability across three distinct business segments: casualty, property and
surety. Growth is measured in terms of gross premiums written, and profitability
is analyzed through combined ratios, which are further subdivided into their
respective loss and expense components.

The property and casualty insurance business is cyclical and influenced by many
factors, including price competition, economic conditions, natural or man-made
disasters (for example, earthquakes, hurricanes, pandemics and terrorism),
interest rates, state regulations, court decisions and changes in the law. One
of the unique and challenging features of the property and casualty insurance
business is that coverages must be priced before costs have fully developed,
because premiums are charged before claims are incurred. This requires that
liabilities be estimated and recorded in recognition of future loss and
settlement obligations. Due to the inherent uncertainty in estimating these
liabilities, there can be no assurance that actual liabilities will not be more
or less than recorded amounts; if actual liabilities differ from recorded
amounts, there will be an adverse or favorable effect on net earnings.

The casualty portion of our business consists largely of commercial excess,
personal umbrella, general liability, transportation and executive products
coverages, as well as package business and other specialty coverages, such as
professional liability and workers' compensation for office-based professionals.
We also assume a limited amount of hard-to-place risks through a quota share
reinsurance agreement. The casualty business is subject to the risk of
estimating losses and related loss reserves because the ultimate settlement of a
casualty claim may take several years to fully develop. The casualty segment is
also subject to inflation risk and may be affected by evolving legislation and
court decisions that define the extent of coverage and the amount of
compensation due for injuries or losses.

Our property segment is comprised primarily of commercial fire, earthquake,
difference in conditions and marine coverages. We also offer select personal
lines policies, including homeowners' coverages. Property insurance results are
subject to the variability introduced by perils such as earthquakes, fires,
hurricanes and other storms. Our major catastrophe exposure is to losses caused
by earthquakes, primarily on the West Coast. Our second largest catastrophe
exposure is to losses caused by wind storms to commercial properties throughout
the Gulf and East Coast, as well as to homes we insure in Hawaii. We limit our
net aggregate exposure to a catastrophic event by minimizing the total policy
limits written in a particular region, purchasing reinsurance and maintaining
policy terms and conditions throughout insurance cycles. We also use
computer-assisted modeling techniques to provide estimates that help the Company
carefully manage the concentration of risks exposed to catastrophic events.

The surety segment specializes in writing small to large-sized commercial and
contract surety coverages, including payment and performance bonds. We also
offer miscellaneous bonds including license and permit, notary and court bonds.
Often, our surety coverages involve a statutory requirement for bonds. While
these bonds typically maintain a relatively low

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loss ratio, losses may fluctuate due to adverse economic conditions affecting
the financial viability of our principals. The contract surety product
guarantees the construction work of a commercial contractor for a specific
project. Generally, losses occur due to the deterioration of a contractor's
financial condition. This line has historically produced marginally higher loss
ratios than other surety lines during economic downturns.

The insurance marketplace is competitive across all of our segments. However, we
believe that our business model is built to create underwriting income by
focusing on sound risk selection and discipline. Our primary focus will continue
to be on underwriting profitability, with a secondary focus on premium growth
where we believe underwriting profit exists, as opposed to general premium
growth or market share measurements.

GAAP, non-GAAP and Performance Measures

Throughout this quarterly report, we include certain non-generally accepted
accounting principles (non-GAAP) financial measures. Management believes that
these non-GAAP measures further explain the Company's results of operations and
allow for a more complete understanding of the underlying trends in the
Company's business. These measures should not be viewed as a substitute for
those determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in
the United States of America (GAAP). In addition, our definitions of these items
may not be comparable to the definitions used by other companies.

The following is a list of non-GAAP measures found throughout this report with
their definitions, relationships to GAAP measures and explanations of their
importance to our operations.



Underwriting Income

Underwriting income or profit represents one measure of the pretax profitability
of our insurance operations and is derived by subtracting losses and settlement
expenses, policy acquisition costs and insurance operating expenses from net
premiums earned, which are all GAAP financial measures. Each of these captions
is presented in the statements of earnings but is not subtotaled. However, this
information is available in total and by segment in note 6 to the unaudited
condensed consolidated interim financial statements in this quarterly report on
Form 10-Q, and in note 12 to the consolidated financial statements in our 2020
Annual Report on Form 10-K, regarding operating segment information. The nearest
comparable GAAP measure is earnings before income taxes which, in addition to
underwriting income, includes net investment income, net realized gains or
losses, net unrealized gains or losses on equity securities, general corporate
expenses, debt costs and our portion of earnings from unconsolidated investees.
A reconciliation of net earnings to underwriting income follows:



                                             For the Three Months          For the Nine Months
                                              Ended September 30,          Ended September 30,
(in thousands)                                2021           2020           2021          2020
Net earnings                               $    29,243     $  42,387     $  184,070     $  73,286
Income tax expense                               6,194         9,122         43,222        13,738
Earnings before income taxes               $    35,437     $  51,509     $  227,292     $  87,024
Equity in earnings of unconsolidated
investees                                       (9,043 )      (8,745 )      (29,407 )     (18,359 )
General corporate expenses                       2,505         2,668          9,533         6,417
Interest expense on debt                         1,906         1,901          5,711         5,701
Net unrealized (gains) losses on equity
securities                                       2,592       (28,126 )      (29,526 )      27,564
Net realized gains                              (1,829 )      (1,512 )      (52,442 )     (14,555 )
Net investment income                          (17,844 )     (16,543 )      (50,929 )     (51,238 )
Net underwriting income                    $    13,724     $   1,152     $   80,232     $  42,554




Combined Ratio

The combined ratio, which is derived from components of underwriting income, is
a common industry performance measure of profitability for underwriting
operations and is calculated in two components. First, the loss ratio is losses
and settlement expenses divided by net premiums earned. The second component,
the expense ratio, reflects the sum of policy acquisition costs and insurance
operating expenses divided by net premiums earned. All items included in these
components of the combined ratio are presented in our GAAP consolidated
financial statements. The sum of the loss and expense ratios is the combined
ratio. The difference between the combined ratio and 100 reflects the per-dollar
rate of underwriting income or loss.

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Critical Accounting Policies

In preparing the unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements,
we are required to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported
amounts of assets and liabilities and the disclosures of contingent assets and
liabilities as of the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts
of revenues and expenses for the reporting period. Actual results could differ
significantly from those estimates.

The most critical accounting policies involve significant estimates and include
those used in determining the liability for unpaid losses and settlement
expenses, investment valuation, recoverability of reinsurance balances, deferred
policy acquisition costs and deferred taxes. For a detailed discussion of each
of these policies, refer to our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

There have been no significant changes to critical accounting policies during
the year.




IMPACT OF COVID-19

Our processes and controls continue to operate effectively and we have been able
to maintain the highest service and support levels possible for our customers
throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. While we have welcomed many of our team
members back to our offices, a number of our associates are still working from
home.

It is difficult to predict how and to what extent COVID-19, and its effects on
the economy, will impact our revenues in the coming quarters. To date, the
product line that has experienced the greatest impact has been public
transportation. Many of our passenger transportation customers had been unable
to effectively operate under social-distancing protocols and stay-at-home
orders. Although transportation premium is up from pre-pandemic levels in the
first nine months of 2021 in total, public transportation may be challenged
until the use of public transportation increases. Additionally, a number of our
products support the construction industry, and revenues may be impacted if
disruption in this sector does not continue to ease.

The loss exposure arising out of the spread of COVID-19 and the resulting
shutdown will take time to resolve. We do not offer event cancellation, travel,
trade credit or pandemic-related coverages, which would be more directly
impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The derivative implications that COVID-19 had
on the economy may have negative implications on products that are correlated
with the credit cycle, including, but not limited to, some of our surety and
executive products offerings. Additionally, the professional services and
executive product groups may be affected by claims made against companies who
are reopening or returning to work.

Actuarial models base future emergence on historic experience, with adjustments
for current trends, and the appropriateness of these assumptions involved
greater uncertainty as of September 30, 2021. We expect there will be impacts to
the timing of loss emergence and ultimate loss ratios for certain coverages. The
industry experienced new issues, including the postponement of civil court
cases, the extension of various statutes of limitations and changes in
settlement trends. Our booked reserves include consideration of these factors,
but the duration and degree to which these issues persist, along with potential
legislative, regulatory or judicial actions, could result in loss reserve
deficiencies and reduce earnings in future periods.

Investment yields decreased throughout 2020, which resulted in lower
reinvestment rates and, in turn, lower investment income in the first nine
months of 2021. Additionally, the fair value of the fixed income portfolio will
decline as interest rates rise, as we observed with our $41.8 million of
after-tax other comprehensive loss during the first nine months of 2021.

We produced solid operating results in the first nine months of 2021 and our
financial position remains strong. We generated $280.4 million of net operating
cash inflows and believe we have sufficient sources of liquidity to meet our
anticipated needs over the next 12 to 24 months. Our revolving credit facility
provides for a borrowing capacity of $60.0 million, which can be increased to
$120.0 million under certain circumstances. Additionally, our membership in the
Federal Home Loan Bank system provides a secured lending facility with an
aggregate borrowing capacity of approximately $30.0 million.

Ultimately, the extent to which COVID-19 will affect our business will be
influenced by its impact on the economy. We continue to evaluate all aspects of
our operations and are making necessary adjustments to manage our business. Our
diversified portfolio of products and financial strength have allowed us to
remain on solid footing. We believe we have a strong and sustainable
underwriting approach that will allow us to weather the economic environment and
uncertainty we continue to experience.

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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2021 Compared to Nine Months Ended September 30,
2020

Consolidated revenue for the first nine months of 2021 increased $176.7 million
from the first nine months of 2020. Net premiums earned for the Group increased
13 percent, driven by growth from our casualty and property segments, while
performance in the equity portfolio varied significantly between the periods.
Positive market performance resulted in $29.5 million of unrealized gains in our
equity portfolio in 2021, while overall market declines resulted in $27.6
million of unrealized losses on equity securities in the first nine months of
2020. Investment income was down 1 percent compared to the prior year, as
reinvestment rates were still recovering from the depressed rate environment
seen over the previous 18 months. Realized gains during the first nine months of
2021 were comprised of $50.6 million of realized gains on equity securities,
primarily due to rebalancing within our equity strategies, $1.7 million of
realized gains on the fixed income portfolio and $0.1 million of other realized
gains. This compares to $13.4 million of realized gains on the equity portfolio,
$3.4 million of realized gains on the fixed income portfolio and $2.2 million of
other realized losses for the same period in 2020.