Researchers from National Center for Atmospheric Research Publish Research in Climate Change (Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment)

2019 DEC 16 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Climate Change Daily News -- A new study on climate change is now available. According to news originating from the National Center for Atmospheric Research by NewsRx editors, the research stated, “Populations and property values are increasing in tropical cyclone prone regions, driving up repair and replacement costs following a tropical cyclone impact.”

Financial supporters for this research include National Center for Atmospheric Research; National Science Foundation; North Carolina Agricultural Research Service, North Carolina State University; Insurance Australia Group Limited, Sydney, Australia.

Our news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from National Center for Atmospheric Research: “Climate change influences on tropical cyclones and sea levels will only exacerbate these rises. For example, Australia’s Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie in 2017 was one of the most destructive cyclones to make landfall in Australia since Tropical Cyclone Tracy in 1974. The primary impacts of Cyclone Debbie were due to extreme short duration intense wind driven rainfall and widespread major flooding, both linked to uncharacteristically warm sea surface temperatures. Studying the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is limited by the lack of well observed historical events. Traditional hazard risk assessment approaches are limited since they are primarily based on statistical models which only deal with single meteorological hazards, or use simplified parameterized relationships when more than one phenomenon is included. Here we explore the value of dynamical models for creating targeted, detailed, and physically plausible multi-hazard tropical cyclone scenarios, through the development of a modeling system that i) retains a high degree of simulation control, ii) is globally applicable, and iii) is responsive to climate variability and change.”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “Application of the modeling system to a thermodynamic climate change scenario finds that the tropical cyclone penetrates much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area, resulting in significantly larger areas subjected to damaging and destructive wind speeds and rainfall totals capable of producing flash and riverine flooding.”

For more information on this research see: Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2019,26. (Weather and Climate Extremes - http://www.journals.elsevier.com/weather-and-climate-extremes/). The publisher for Weather and Climate Extremes is Elsevier.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100229.

Our news editors report that more information may be obtained by contacting James M. Done, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder Co., 80301, USA. Additional authors for this research include Cindy L. Bruyere, Abigail B. Jaye, Greg J. Holland, Bruce Buckley, David J. Henderson, Mark Leplastrier, Peter Chan.

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