Researchers from Bocconi University Describe Findings in Risk Management (Which Parameters Are Important? Differential Importance Under Uncertainty)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- Researchers detail new data in Risk Management. According to news originating from Milan, Italy, by VerticalNews correspondents, research stated, "In probabilistic risk assessment, attention is often focused on the expected value of a risk metric. The sensitivity of this expectation to changes in the parameters of the distribution characterizing uncertainty in the inputs becomes of interest."

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from Bocconi University, "Approaches based on differentiation encounter limitations when (i) distributional parameters are expressed in different units or (ii) the analyst wishes to transfer sensitivity insights from individual parameters to parameter groups, when alternating between different levels of a probabilistic safety assessment model. Moreover, the analyst may also wish to examine the effect of assuming independence among inputs. This work proposes an approach based on the differential importance measure, which solves these issues. Estimation aspects are discussed in detail, in particular the problem of obtaining all sensitivity measures from a single Monte Carlo sample, thus avoiding potentially costly model runs. The approach is illustrated through an analytical example, highlighting how it can be used to assess the impact of removing the independence assumption."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "An application to the probabilistic risk assessment model of the Advanced Test Reactor large loss of coolant accident sequence concludes the work."

For more information on this research see: Which Parameters Are Important? Differential Importance Under Uncertainty. Risk Analysis, 2018;():. (Wiley-Blackwell - www.wiley.com/; Risk Analysis - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924)

The news correspondents report that additional information may be obtained from I. Antoniano-Villalobos, Dept. of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy. Additional authors for this research include E. Borgonovo and S. Siriwardena.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13125. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Keywords for this news article include: Milan, Italy, Europe, Risk Management.

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