Report: Hartford, New Haven and Bridgeport are three slowest-growing job markets in the country

Jul. 24--The Hartford, New Haven and Bridgeport metro areas were the three slowest-growing job markets in the country over the past five years, according to a new report from a national mortgage insurance company.

"Many of the weaker metros remain hard-hit by the decline in manufacturing employment or loss of a large employer and just haven't had time to recover yet," Arch MI wrote in the quarterly Housing and Mortgage Market Review report. "Most are in colder climates. Connecticut and New York are also somewhat hampered by taxes and changes in the financial services sector."

Arch looked at three factors in each metro to determine their rankings: the 5-year percentage change in employment, the increase in total employment in the past five years and the hypothetical median debt-to-income ratio, an estimate of what percentage of the median income in the metro is needed to make mortgage payments on a median-priced home, or put more simply, a measure of home affordability in a particular market.

Bridgeport ranked dead last among the 100 metros surveyed, with a 2 percent increase in employment over the past five years, or 7,000 new jobs, and a 34 percent hypothetical median DTI. New Haven was No. 99 (2 percent job growth, or 8,000 new jobs, and a 26 percent hypothetical median DTI) and Hartford came in at No. 98 (3 percent job growth, or 17,000 new jobs, and a 24 percent hypothetical median DTI). Statewide, Connecticut has recovered 79.3 percent of the jobs lost in the Great Recession, the state Department of Labor reported last week.

New Haven and Bridgeport also scored poorly in a metric looking at their ability to attract young people, according to the Arch MI report. The metros were in the bottom five in the five-year increase in the percentage of their population that is between 25 and 44 years old.

The top three metros in the report were Cape Coral, Fla. (23 percent job growth in the past five years, or 51,000 new jobs, and a 31 percent hypothetical median DTI); Boise City, Idaho (21 percent job growth, or 60,000 new jobs, and a 32 percent hypothetical median DTI); and Orlando, Fla. (21 percent job growth, or 233,000 new jobs, and a 32 percent hypothetical median DTI).

The report also highlighted Connecticut as one of 10 states most at risk to see home prices decline over the next two years, with a 19 percent chance of that happening, according to Arch MI's analysis. At the end of March, home prices in Connecticut were 14 percent below their pre-recession peak, according to the report.

"Connecticut is one of the last states to fully recover from the 2008 -- 09 recession, which led to other problems, such as a persistent state budget deficit," the report said. "The state's under-65 population has contracted each year since 2011. Being a high-cost, high-tax state, it is disproportionately affected by new federal limitations on state and local tax deductions, which incent wealthier residents to move to lower-tax states."

There was one bit of good news for Connecticut in the report. The state saw the largest annual increase in housing starts, or the new construction of homes, at 18.8 percent. Most states saw a decline in housing starts.

Russell Blair can be reached at [email protected].

___

(c)2019 The Hartford Courant (Hartford, Conn.)

Visit The Hartford Courant (Hartford, Conn.) at www.courant.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.