OPINION: Predicting 2016 was hard. Can we do better in 2017?

Dec. 23--Generally speaking, 2016 was the year that broke hearts and shattered crystal balls.

Yes, there was some solace for Cubs fans and Donald Trump supporters. But as for most of the rest of it, man! Who saw that coming?

A year ago, when I asked for readers to predict the news for 2016, just 18 percent of respondents to an online click survey thought a Republican would win the White House in November, and only 17 percent thought Trump would emerge from the primary battles as the GOP nominee (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was the reader favorite, with a 42 percent plurality; Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas was second with 23 percent).

A plurality of you thought Ohio Gov. John Kasich would get the vice presidential nod that went to Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and Democratic veep nominee Tim Kaine scored just 2 percent in the survey.

A little more than half of you thought disgraced former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert would get probation after he pleaded guilty to charges related to his sexual abuse of minors in the 1970s when he was a high school wrestling coach, but he got a 15-month sentence.

You thought the U.S. Supreme Court would effectively put an end to affirmative action (it didn't), that our squabbling Solons in Springfield would reach budget agreement by July 1 (they didn't) and that Chicago Public Schools teachers would go on strike (they didn't, unless you count their one-day protest walkout on April Fool's Day, which I don't).

Only 27 percent of you foresaw the Cubs World Series victory.

I blew all these predictions too. I thought a Hillary Clinton-Julian Castro Democratic ticket would swamp a Paul Ryan-Marco Rubio Republican ticket.

I also guessed incorrectly that Michigan State University would win the NCAA football championship, that a petition challenge would sink veteran Chicago Democratic U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush's re-election bid and that our nation would not suffer a terrorist attack worse than the Dec. 2, 2015, attack in San Bernardino, Calif., in which 14 people were killed.

Readers correctly predicted the University of Alabama's victory in the NCAA title game and Rush's political survival. And 59 percent anticipated a more deadly terror attack, which we got when an Islamic State sympathizer murdered 49 people in an Orlando nightclub on June 12.

However, I was right and readers were wrong when I predicted that a federal judge would not give imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich a sentence reduction, that turncoat Democratic state Rep. Ken Dunkin of Chicago would lose his primary fight with a candidate backed by party leaders, that President Barack Obama would choose Jackson Park over Washington Park for the site of his future library and that the NBA's Golden State Warriors would beat the 72-10 regular season record of the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

Among the predictions we all got right: That Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic presidential nominee (94 percent of you nailed that one); that Cook County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez, Illinois Comptroller Leslie Munger and U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk would lose their bids for re-election; and that Republicans would hold on to a narrow majority in the U.S. Senate.

Readers and I also correctly predicted that former U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock of Peoria would be indicted for misuse of funds, that the U.S. Supreme Court would call rubbish on Texas' brazen attempt to shut down abortion clinics via over-regulation and (talk about a gimme) that the White Sox would not make the postseason.

In all, I got 15 of 29 predictions correct and the hive mind got 14 of 29.

It was supposed to be 30 predictions, but one has rolled over to 2017 because our court system grinds so slowly: What length of a sentence will former Chicago Public Schools CEO Barbara Byrd-Bennett get for her role in a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme?

She pleaded guilty in October 2015, and the federal courts plan to get around to sentencing her this coming April. Will she get more or less than the roughly 7 1/2 years prosecutors are asking for?

That question is on the new, 2017 predict-the-news questionnaire, but of course it's not the biggest question for the coming year.

That question, broadly speaking, is "What kind of president is Trump going to be, anyway?"

I've tried to quantify that with a set of more specific requests for predictions -- will the U.S. withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Will Congress approve new funding for a new wall at the Mexican border? Will Trump order a halt on commercial flights from the U.S. to Cuba? Will he attempt to cancel federal funding to so-called "sanctuary cities"? Will he repeal Obamacare's controversial, integral insurance mandate? How many of his Cabinet nominees won't survive the confirmation process? Will his Justice Department pursue a criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton?

And will America be better off a year from now than it is today? Will unemployment and gas prices and the annual federal deficit be lower? Will the stock market and gross domestic product be higher?

Of course, there are other mysteries of 2017 ahead of us. Will the Cubs repeat as World Series champs? Which, if any, ultra-wealthy Illinois Democrats will rise up to begin challenging Gov. Bruce Rauner? What will be the verdicts in the trials of Schock and Chicago police Officer Jason Van Dyke, charged with murder in the shooting death of Laquan McDonald?

I have my inklings, and I invite you to offer yours in this year's survey, expanded to 36 questions to account for all the uncertainty precipitated by the president-elect.

Head to chicagotribune.com/zorn to join the fun. I'll compare your collective forecasts to mine in the Jan. 1 column.

Re: Tweets

I've been off the last few Sundays, so here are the recent winners of our Tweet of the Week reader poll:

--Dec. 10: "I don't think of myself as passive aggressive, but I suppose you do," by @TheAlexNevil.

--Dec 17: "Why do people say 'get well soon'? Why don't they want me to get well now?" by @chrisdowning.

--This week: "Lady at the dollar store checked to see if my $20 was fake. Like if I could counterfeit money I'd be shopping at the dollar store," by @moooooog35.

In the Dec. 30 column I will crown the funniest person on Twitter for 2016 and offer a selection of my favorite tweets from the past year.

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