NZD/USD Analysis: Another Move Higher and Long-Term Considerations – 25 September 2024

The NZD/USD has seen another burst of upwards momentum today as the 0.63550 vicinity was flirted with briefly early this morning, this as traders consider long-term technical charts via highs.

-- The NZD/USD exchange rate has seen another dose of strong buying and earlier this morning propelled to heights last seen in December 2023.
-- Current value in the NZD/USD is near the 0.63250 mark and the ability to sustain the loftier price realm means technical traders need to look at long-term charts.
-- Financial institutions are clearly leaning into bullish sentiment regarding the currency pair, but day traders need to understand that reversals are still part of the Forex landscape.
The belief the U.S Federal Reserve will remain in a dovish stance has generated more buying of the NZD/USD. Yesterday’s rather weak Consumer Confidence reading from the U.S sets the table for the potential of big day of trading late tomorrow as the GDP reports approach. The NZD/USD is traversing ratios which occurred late last year when financial institutions were also optimistic about their dovish Federal Reserve outlooks. However, those thoughts in late 2023 did not work out well and reversals lower in the NZD certainly hit.

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NZD/USD Consideration of a Different Outcome Moving Forward

This time around regarding the Federal Reserve, now that the U.S central bank actually cut the Fed Funds Rate last week by 0.50%, financial institutions may have reasons to believe fundamental economic data will continue to prove their bullish stances in the NZD/USD are correct. Tomorrow’s Gross Domestic Product results from the U.S will provide some evidence – but will it be bad or good?

If the growth and inflation reports via the GDP reports tomorrow meet expectations traders may find that price equilibrium remains within the current boundaries. This morning’s jump upwards does show that financial institutions may be positioning for interest rate cuts beyond the expected 0.25% cut from the U.S Fed in November. Day traders need to practice solid risk management over the near-term in the NZD/USD.

Higher Levels and Potential Near-Term Resistance

NZD/USD have reasons to be optimistic if they are bullish. The trend upwards has been strong since the last week in July – minus the chaos seen on the 5th of August – and there are reasons to suspect that the mid-term may see more upward trajectory.

-- However, there is also the short-term notion that financial institutions may be getting slightly ahead of themselves.
-- This morning’s jump higher was met with a slight reversal lower.
-- Tomorrow’s GDP numbers from the U.S will be important and traders may not want to have open positions in the NZD/USD going into the reports unless they have solid risk management in place.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 0.63280

Current Support: 0.63140

High Target: 0.63450

Low Target: 0.63010

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