Miami-Dade's new sea rise strategy: build higher and back away from the water

Feb. 26—Miami-Dade's new strategy for adapting to sea level rise comes down to two main ideas: build up higher and back away from the water.

That could look like building elevated homes straight out of the Florida Keys, or buying out whole streets of homes on the riverfront, or shorelines lined with mangroves instead of condos.

On Friday, Miami-Dade released its vision for how it will survive the two feet of sea level rise it expects by 2060, enough to cause an estimated $25 billion in damages.

"This is our existential challenge. This is the one that trumps them all," said Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava at the Friday morning press conference announcing the report.

Levine Cava touted the sea level rise strategy as the first in the state and promised it will guide the "billions" the county will invest in its infrastructure.

Billions might not cover it. This report didn't hazard a guess at how much it would cost to do everything it would take to protect Miami-Dade from sea level rise, but fixing septic tanks alone would cost well north of $4 billion.

The report lists the $1.7 billion Miami-Dade has already spent or plans to spend elevating buildings and critical equipment (like storm pumps) and restoring mangroves. It also shows the $542 million worth of adaptation projects Miami-Dade has identified so far that it doesn't have cash for, a clear undercount of the work to be done.

The press conference took place in front of a giant South Florida Water Management-run gate near the mouth of the Little River. The gate helps prevent flooding on inland parts of the river, or, it used to.

Now with sea level rise, the system's old reliance on gravity pushing water toward the coast doesn't work as often. The water management district and Miami-Dade have applied for a FEMA grant to upgrade the gate and install new pumps, a multi-million dollar project that will likely have to be repeated at each and every flood gate in the county to prepare for rising seas.

"[Sea level rise] threatens not only our homes and our roads, but our industry and our economy and overall our lives," said Miami-Dade Commissioner Rebecca Sosa, who has commission-wide dibs on all legislation relating to climate change.

Harvey Ruvin, the longstanding clerk of the courts and one of Miami-Dade's earliest advocates for climate action, praised the county for finally addressing "the inevitable, relentless reality" of climate change. He led the county's Sea Level Rise Task Force in 2015.

"The one thing we didn't really have going for us is a mayor with a passion for the subject," he said, a dig at former Mayor Carlos Gimenez, a Republican who is now a U.S. representative for Miami. "Now we can sit back and know that the work on that task force will be turned into tangible action."

This strategy will be updated every five years, and annual progress will be tracked with implementation reports.

Living with more water

The 106-page report sums up all the different strategies used by cities and counties throughout the state — like elevating homes, raising roads, buying out properties and restoring mangroves and coral reefs — and imagines how and where they could be used in Miami-Dade.

The five main approaches laid out in the report aren't meant to be used one at a time, said Miami-Dade's Chief Resilience Officer.

"We had to be sure we weren't prescribing solutions for any part of the county," he said.

For most of the county, the report suggests building like the Keys. That means homes on legs, and getting comfortable with a lot more water in your daily life.

This path forward would require a stronger building code to ensure homes and offices could withstand the more powerful storms of the future, as well as more living shorelines — coastal barriers made up of absorbent landscaping like mangroves, rather than steel and concrete sea walls.

For "the ridge," the naturally high ground around the railroad tracks stretching throughout the county, this report suggests building more and higher. The report acknowledged that people will "gradually" decide they don't want to live and work in places that flood all the time, and they'll come looking for higher ground.

That movement could push out the longtime residents of the handful of high-elevation spots, especially those with a high population of renters, like Little Haiti. Those spots are often historically Black and Hispanic communities that were forced to the formerly undesirable inland locations through racist redlining policies. Advocates call the elevation-related pressure to displace these communities climate gentrification.

To combat that, the report suggests Miami-Dade explore "anti-displacement policies."

Another approach explored in the report is "expanding blueways and greenways," which basically means expanding parks and canals to absorb more water. That expansion requires moving homes and buildings out of the way, a tough sell for any government. The report only talks about voluntary buyouts, which are popular in the Florida Keys but have proven less so in Miami-Dade.

The companion to that concept is creating "blue and green neighborhoods." That involves swapping a lot of the landscaping in residential areas for more absorbent trees and plants, as well as making parks that do double duty as water storage spots during heavy rains.

For the western and southern suburbs, the report suggests continuing a longstanding Florida tradition: building on fill.

The process of scooping out dirt and sand from one spot to build higher in another spot is how those suburbs came to be after the water management district's canal system drained the Everglades. This strategy would involve demolishing old properties and roads and rebuilding them on even higher piles on fill.

Bringing in dollars

The most immediate threat to Miami-Dade from sea rise is likely financial.

Miami-Dade is counting on continued outside investment, and rising property values, to raise some of the money it needs to adapt. But neither are givens.

The increased risk of flooding and strong hurricanes is spiking the cost of flood and windstorm insurance, and experts say it could eventually spook banks from offering mortgages in flood-prone areas. Some research shows it might already be affecting property values, which could crumble in the future if nothing is done.

Ajani Stewart, senior management consultant for urban and coastal resilience with Arcadis, the lead consultant on the report, said the new sea level rise strategy is another signal to the financial market that Miami-Dade is taking steps to protect itself from sea rise.

"The investor community, the risk assessment community is looking at Miami-Dade County for what is it doing to secure its future and continue to be the type of place that attracts investment," he said.

Several studies have shown that investing in resilience projects makes financial sense. A recent report found that every dollar invested in Miami-Dade adaptation projects yields $5 to $9 in benefits.

But finding those dollars to invest initially can be tough. That could change this year if Gov. Ron DeSantis' proposal to help governments adapt to rising seas with a $1 billion loan fund is approved.

But the biggest opportunity for the county right now is at the federal level — a $6.1 billion plan developed by the Army Corps of Engineers to protect the county from future storm surge. If the county agrees on the plan's details and if the feds eventually fund it, Miami could be in line for $4 billion in government cash to do plenty of the things on its action item list: floodproof buildings, elevate homes, protect hospitals and water treatment plants and restore mangroves.

The next deadline for the county is in April, when the mayor will have to decide whether to commit in writing to continue the project or ask for a waiver to pause the process.

"We left the meeting with a commitment for everybody to accelerate and them to try to meet the concerns within the month," Levine Cava told the Miami Herald. "It was clear they're listening."

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