‘Life-threatening’ storm surge possible in South Florida from Hurricane Nicole

The unwelcome surprise of a November hurricane appeared likely to hit Florida Wednesday, as Subtropical Storm Nicole continued on a course that could strike the state anywhere from South Florida to Jacksonville.

Nicole is expected to become a tropical storm Tuesday and then continue to strengthen, reaching a top wind speed of 75 mph by the time it approaches Florida, putting the storm at Category 1 hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory early Tuesday that the forecast track had shifted slightly north.

“Life-threatening” storm surge is possible along the Broward and Palm Beach county coasts, the National Weather Service said Tuesday morning. Storm surge, the wind-driven rise in sea levels that accounted for many of the deaths when Hurricane Ian hit the Gulf coast in September, could reach 2 to 4 feet in South Florida, the National Hurricane Center said.

Broward and Palm Beach counties face a 20-30% chance of high-end tropical-force winds, with hurricane-strength gusts, according to the National Weather Service. The chance of hurricane-force winds is 5-10% in Palm Beach County and 5% in Broward and elsewhere.

The storm’s wind field, shown on the hurricane center’s map in dark yellow, is unusually large, which means that wherever Nicole’s center strikes, the entire east coast of Florida is likely to face high winds, heavy rain and storm surge.

“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone,” the hurricane center said at 5 a.m. Tuesday.

At 7 a.m. Tuesday, the storm was producing top winds of 50 mph and located 385 east-northeast of the Bahamas, moving toward Florida at 8 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm conditions, meaning winds of at least 39 mph, could arrive in Florida early Wednesday, intensifying to hurricane conditions that night.

Hurricane watches, tropical storm warnings and storm surge alerts remain in effect Tuesday along Florida’s east coast, and officials are urging Floridians to prepare now and stay vigilant.

Early Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, an area pummeled in late September by Hurricane Ian.

Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency in 34 Florida counties, including Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, on Monday.

“I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a prepared statement. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves towards Florida.”

Florida Division of Emergency Management officials advise to stock up on a weeks’ worth of non-perishable packaged and canned foods and beverages, one gallon of water per person per day, non-electric can openers, paper and plastic utensils, pet food and supplies, gasoline, first-aid supplies, medications, cell phone chargers, batteries, flashlights and cash and to secure important documents.

South Florida effects

The National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Monday that “overall the threat is increasing for South Florida” with potentially life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes on the horizon.

Broward County Public Schools Superintendent Vickie Cartwright and Palm Beach County School District Superintendent Mike Burke said Monday that their districts are monitoring Nicole’s development and will share updates about any closures on their websites and social media. Broward and Palm Beach schools were already scheduled to be closed to students Tuesday.

Palm Beach County Mayor Robert Weinroth said at a news conference alongside other county officials Monday night that there has not been any decision yet to open shelters or order evacuations. He encouraged residents to prepare “but not to panic.”

“By now, you should have your general needs and supplies on hand,” Weinroth said.

Eric Silagy, president and CEO of Florida Power & Light Company, cautioned that the storm will cause power outages as trees and vegetation that were weakened during recent Hurricane Ian get knocked down.

“It is very likely that we will see outages from the storm,” Silagy said.

Florida’s east coast from the Volusia/Brevard County line to Hallandale Beach, Lake Okeechobee and the northwestern Bahamas are under a hurricane watch. The Bahamas issued a hurricane warning Monday afternoon for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Hallandale Beach to Altamaha Sound, Lake Okeechobee and the Bahamian islands of Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera.

A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef and from the Volusia/Brevard county line north to Georgia’s Altamaha Sound.

Early Tuesday a tropical storm watch for the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, an area pummeled in late September by Hurricane Ian.

A storm surge watch is also in effect from Georgia’s Altamaha Sound to the mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka and to Hallandale Beach.

North Palm Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, including the mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, are now under a storm surge warning.

“The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves,” the center’s latest advisory said.

The Weather Channel expects Nicole’s center to make landfall on Florida’s east coast Wednesday night or early Thursday, though the “worst of Nicole’s impacts on the southeast coast could arrive by late Tuesday or Wednesday and might last in some areas well through the second half of the week.”

Given that forecast, it’s likely South Florida voters will begin feeling the effects on Election Day, Tuesday, as the system brings moisture up from the Caribbean Sea.

Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Wendy Sartory Link said that the weather is not expected to affect voting or any polling sites, but if a location experiences any flooding or loses power, voters will be re-directed to the closest site. Broward County Supervisor of Elections Office said in a tweet Monday night that all polls will be open as planned for Election Day.

Parts of Broward and Palm Beach County could see winds as strong as 110 mph that could damage roofs and mobile homes, uproot trees, leave some roads or bridges impassible and cause a wide area of power outages, the weather service said.

Southern and western Broward County, along with Miami-Dade, could see winds between 58 and 73 mph.

South Florida will see the heaviest of any rainfall from the storm between Wednesday and Thursday, according to the weather service. Between 4 and 6 inches are expected in parts of Palm Beach County and Broward County, though higher amounts in some areas are possible.

“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the hurricane center’s latest advisory said.

From Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach, storm surge could reach 2 to 4 feet and 1 to 2 feet from north of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach, including Biscayne Bay. From North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound, storm surge could reach 3 to 5 feet, the center’s latest advisory said.

Rain and flooding could cause water to enter some buildings and close roads in parts of Broward and Palm Beach County, according to the weather service.

Robert Garcia, a senior meteorologist at the National Weather Service Miami, said there have already been reports of some minor flooding in the coastal areas of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, and that coming high tides will be measuring in an upward trend before any affects from Nicole.

“It is not something that looks like it’s going to go away this week. We’re already starting to see those higher water levels, and with the storm we’re expecting them to increase,” Garcia said.

Some tornadoes may also be possible in Palm Beach County from Wednesday into Thursday morning, according to the weather service.

Forecasters are also monitoring a stormy area of low pressure located 650 miles east of Bermuda early Tuesday night. Forecasters said its chances of developing are quickly lessening as it heads northeast into cooler waters in an area of upper-level winds.

The system near Bermuda had a 30% chance of developing in the next two to five days, according to the hurricane center, down from 70% on Sunday.

There have been two major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above, so far this season: Fiona and Ian.

The next named storm to form would be Owen.

NOAA has predicted at least four more hurricanes will form before hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

This is a developing story, so check back for updates. Click here to have breaking news alerts sent directly to your inbox.