'It's been quite a roller-coaster ride': Wisconsin venues see bumpy start to live music comeback but high hopes for 2022

Concerts have been back in Wisconsin and across the country for a few months now following an unprecedented shutdown of the live-music industry in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

But the concert business isn't back to normal yet.

Nearly every venue in Milwaukee has had some blockbuster, full-capacity shows since they reopened in July, from Harry Styles at Fiserv Forum to Machine Gun Kelly at The Rave's Eagles Ballroom; from Bob Dylan at the Riverside Theater to Dave Chappelle at Summerfest's American Family Insurance Amphitheater.

But Summerfest - which took place in September, just as COVID cases were surging thanks to the delta variant - reported its lowest attendance since at least 1986, down sharply from 2019. While some acts have returned to the road, show cancellations and postponements are still happening - including Milwaukee dates or full tours for KISS, 24KGoldn and the cast of TruTV's "Impractical Jokers" - whether it's due to positive COVID cases or, in some cases, low ticket sales.

Billboard has reported that there have been record levels of ticket buyers not showing up to events in late summer and fall. And in Wisconsin, some promoters and venue operators believe widely varied safety protocols - some shows require masks and proof of vaccination, while others have no extra requirements - are creating confusion that can affect business.

"It's been quite a roller-coaster ride the past few years," said Charlie Goldstone, co-president of FPC Live, a part of Madison-based Frank Productions, one of the country's largest concert promoters. "The business right now, it's not as steady as it was. When a show confirms, there is now a real chance that it could reschedule. That was never there before."

"Every show that played off in the third quarter was a victory for us," Goldstone added. "And everybody that buys a ticket and goes to a show we appreciate so much more now than we did two years ago."

Concerts come back; some music fans stay home

Plenty of people have been going to concerts again.

FPC Live has grossed $4.6 million from ticket sales to concerts as of Aug. 18, according to concert trade publication Pollstar. That's a far cry from the third quarter of 2019 - where tickets for FPC events grossed $78.4 million - but it's significantly more than in the third quarter of 2020, when revenue only came in from a handful of socially distant shows.

Summerfest's amphitheater - which finally reopened following a $51.3 million renovation with a sold-out Foo Fighters show - ranked 15th for the third quarter of 2021 among top-grossing amphitheaters in the world, according to Pollstar. In the same period in 2019, it ranked 52nd.

There have been big successes since. Machine Gun Kelly at the Rave and Harry Styles at Fiserv Forum were near-instant sellouts, while Widespread Panic drew nearly 10,000 fans from 49 states, Canada and Europe for their 15th Riverside Theater residency last month, said Pabst Theater Group CEO Gary Witt.

"It's been better than I anticipated," said Starr Butler, the Milwaukee Bucks' vice president of booking and events, about the return of concerts. Outside of the Bucks' championship season - which Butler suggested has helped with promotor discussions - Fiserv Forum has hosted 10 events so far this year, including concerts with Blake Shelton and Michael Bublé.

"People want to see shows and be entertained," Butler said. "It's a great thing that we have been able to provide that."

But as COVID cases started surging again in July through September, Witt and Pabst Theater Group Chief Operating Officer Matt Beringer wondered if they'd again face a wave of cancellations and postponements.

"Within a week of the Bucks winning the championship, there was this deja vu feeling that it was happening again," Beringer said. "It was like the sequel to a bad horror movie."

To keep the live-music industry from collapsing again, in August, many touring artists, festivals and venues - including Summerfest and the Pabst Theater Group - began requiring proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test for entry.

"I think implementing the policy lifted a weight off of our shoulders. Here was something substantive that we can do," Beringer said. "People have reacted favorably. They saw that this was about safety and it was about bringing things back to normal."

FPC's Goldstone suggests that their own vaccination or negative test policy for their Madison venues - including the Sylvee, the Majestic Theater and Orpheum Theater - has helped diminish no-show rates among ticket holders.

But those absences in some cases have reached unprecedented levels, sometimes as high as 20%, said Peter Jest, who runs promotion company Alternative Concert Group and east side venue Shank Hall in Milwaukee.

"When the delta variant hit, people were nervous again," Jest said. "Our crowd skews a bit older, so some people are a little more cautious about coming out."

Bruce Peterson, co-owner of local promoter BruMar Productions, had to cancel two planned shows in Oshkosh due to poor ticket sales, while a show at the 840-seat Barrymore Theatre in Madison sold just 255 tickets.

Beyond concerns about COVID, Peterson wonders if drastically different protocols across the state are dampening sales. His underperforming show at the Barrymore, for instance, required patrons to wear masks, per Dane County public health guidelines.

Milwaukee County, on the other hand, has no such policies, and there have been concerts for much larger audiences, featuring Shelton, Dan + Shay and Andrea Bocelli, that had no special health protocols in place. Milwaukee venues like Fiserv Forum, the Miller High Life Theatre, the Rave and Shank Hall are operating under additional health policies on a case-by-case basis, letting artists make the call. (Jest, for one, suggests ticket buyers are more understanding when it's the artist making the call vs. the venue.)

"Patrons are confused by the different rules at different venues," Peterson said. "As an industry, Wisconsin should agree on what the standard protocol is. At some point, people are going to give up and say, 'I'm not going to do this anymore.'"

FPC's Goldstone understands Peterson's concerns, but he isn't as worried about long-term ramifications.

"The patchwork of rules across the state - which, unfortunately, was done by design - I don't think that's good for the business overall," he said. "Anything that causes any sort of confusion isn't good for the industry. … But it is a temporary thing that will end once the public health issue subsides."

Grants give breathing room

The stability of the business is "really dependent on what the status is of the pandemic and where we're at with infection rates," the Pabst's Witt said. But venues and promoters have some relief thanks to the $16.25 billion Shuttered Venue Operator Grant program that was included in the $900 billion COVID-19 relief bill signed by President Donald Trump in December.

The Pabst Theater Group, for instance, was granted $10.8 million, and has so far collected a little over half of that amount, Witt said. It's helped the business bounce back from an abysmal 2020 - when revenue plummeted 96% - and get its bearings. Some money went toward staffing events, building repairs and upgrading restrooms at the Riverside.

"(The money) gives breathing room that allowed us to be able to come back but not forced to come back at 100%," Witt said. "We knew we needed money based on what we lost, but we needed money as a runway to get the business going."

With money received so far for the nearly $700,000 he's guaranteed through the SVOG, Jest said he's "been able to pay overhead, expenses, utilities, rent, insurance and advertising for shows. … I've been able to pay back all the losses from last year."

"2021 is going to still be a bad year, with over half the year (dark) and some people still afraid to go to shows," Jest said. "The grants have been a lifesaver."

Among the bigger concert players in Milwaukee, Summerfest parent Milwaukee World Festival Inc. was granted $10 million, while Eagles Entertainment, the LLC for the Rave, received $5.7 million.

Frank Productions was able to receive $10 million - and an additional $10 million for its Nashville-based promotion subsidiary National Shows 2 - despite the fact that Live Nation, the world's largest concert promoter, owns a majority stake in Frank.

Publicly traded corporations, and businesses that are majority owned or controlled by public companies, were deemed ineligible for the SVOG, according to Andrea Roebker, spokeswoman for the Small Business Administration, which administered the grants.

It's unclear under those parameters how Frank Productions received grants. Per SBA policy, Roebker wouldn't comment on Frank Productions' case.

"Like promoters and venue operators across the country, our employees appreciate the state and federal recovery aid we have received, along with the continuous support from the live music community," FPC Live's Goldstone said in a prepared statement.

"I'm not a lawyer, but it obviously seems wrong," Jest said. "It's the rich getting richer and not what that grant was for, to make sure that (Live Nation CEO Michael) Rapino can get a new Learjet."

Full concert calendars expected in 2022

While the grants are helping struggling venues and promoters for now, "next year, we need to start making money on our own," Jest said. FPC's Goldstone said promoters have spent the shutdown improving concert ticketing strategies, with a wider range of price points, to maximize revenue.

And touring artists who have held out on touring likely will return to the road in 2022, said Scott Leslie, co-president of FPC Live.

"There are very few artists that exist in the music industry who can afford to stay on the sidelines and not work three or four years," Leslie said.

Those conditions - combined with boosters now being available and vaccines recently approved for children ages 5 to 11 - bodes well for 2022, with concert volumes likely to reach, or even eclipse, record levels in 2019, Goldstone said.

"It will be a busy, busy year," the Pabst's Beringer said. "Ask any booking agent trying to find holds for 2022 and venues that are starting to run out of dates."

A couple of Pabst Theater Group shows booked for the first quarter of 2022 - Glass Animals and Mitski - sold so well they were moved to the 4,000-seat Miller High Life Theatre, where they both sold out. Jest already has 25 concerts planned for next year through Alternative Concert Group, and 75 on the books for Shank Hall in 2022.

Bob Babisch, Summerfest's longtime vice president of entertainment, told the Journal Sentinel last summer that the amphitheater should have more concerts next year than in 2021, which was the venue's busiest year since 2004.

Goldstone said that a tour with Ghost and Volbeat - which comes to Fiserv Forum Feb. 20 - has had the strongest initial ticket sales in both bands' history, and the Bucks arena has lined up 2022 tour dates with Elton John, Roger Waters, Imagine Dragons, Tyler The Creator, Kane Brown, Shawn Mendes and more.

The Rave will book concerts at Washington County's Silver Lining Amphitheater starting next year as part of a 10-year deal announced in April. And the Milwaukee Brewers' American Family Field and Alpine Valley Music Theatre in East Troy should finally host their first concerts since 2019, with Kenny Chesney and Motley Crue (at the former) and Rage Against the Machine (at the latter).

Nevertheless, Beringer cautions it would be a major mistake to underestimate the pandemic. Another setback that jeopardizes public health and the concert industry - and further rattles consumer confidence that's already shown some shakiness - is entirely possible.

"The one thing I've come to expect is everything that I have come to expect ends up being wrong," Goldstone said jokingly. "There is not a diminished need for live music. Live music is essential to a great many people. We have to roll with the punches until we get to the back end of COVID, to the extent that we ever will."

Contact Piet at (414) 223-5162 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @pietlevy or Facebook at facebook.com/PietLevyMJS.

Piet also talks concerts, local music and more on "TAP'd In" with Evan Rytlewski. Hear it at 8 a.m. Thursdays on WYMS-FM (88.9), or wherever you get your podcasts.