Inflation scares up Halloween horrors for families

The scariest thing you see while shopping for Halloween might not be a Darth Vader mask, but $20 price tags on chocolate and a lack of holiday shoppers.

Industry reports show that most consumers have tightened their belts for the annual celebration of ghosts and goblins.

The Halloween & Costume Association, a trade group of 30 costume companies, commissioned the Harris Poll to survey 2,090 adults nationally about their spending plans. The findings, released Thursday, show that 53% said rising costs would impact their plans, with price being the top factor in choosing a costume.

"Inflation seems to be casting a chilling spell over holiday fun for some, with 26% of Americans saying they plan to spend less on Halloween compared to last year," the association said.

In a separate poll of 2,040 shoppers that online financial services company Lending Tree released this month, 59% said they planned to skip specific purchases due to shrinking budgets. They named decorations, candy and party supplies as their top planned cuts.

Lending Tree chief credit analyst Matt Schulz blamed the frugality on rising costs for staple items, like gasoline and groceries, eating into household budgets over the past four years.

"Even though we're clearly past peak inflation, prices are still high and people are still struggling with them," Mr. Schulz said in an email. "When those struggles happen, difficult decisions often have to be made and sometimes you even have to hold back on doing things you love, such as celebrating Halloween."

Among those surveyed, 28% told Lending Tree they took on debt for past Halloween purchases and 17% expected to do so again this year. Roughly half of consumers who overspent on witches and ghosts said they regretted it.

The National Retail Federation estimates that Americans will spend $11.6 billion on Halloween this year, including $3.5 billion for candy and $3.8 billion for costumes and decorations. That's down from a record-high $12.2 billion last year but remains about $3 billion higher than pre-pandemic levels.

"This year's spending fits within a broader trend of consumers continuing to prioritize what's important to them, including essentials and holidays," said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights.

Americans returned in droves to Halloween parties after the end of COVID-19 restrictions, driving a steady increase in spending on fake blood and candy as consumer prices surged from 2021 to 2023.

Reached for comment, several consumer advocates said the monster mash will finally wind down this month. They noted that many Americans have exhausted their pandemic savings and taken on record debt to cover holiday price surges.

"Target's lowest price on Halloween candy bags is $5.99 now," said Edgar Dworsky, founder of the website Consumer World, which has tracked inflation in consumer food prices since 1995. "That is not low to me. And I have seen unit prices of over $9 a pound, with over 50 cents an ounce being common."

Economists say rising labor, manufacturing, sugar and cocoa costs have combined with increased spending to jack up chocolate prices by about 40% since October 2020.

"The thing to remember is that prices will increase to offset increases in labor and material costs, but prices will also increase because the consumer is willing to accept higher prices in an inflationary environment," said Tom Arnold, a finance professor at the University of Richmond.

Other factors in this year's price surges include lower-than-expected Easter candy sales, a cocoa shortage driven by global weather changes and reductions in candy production.

Datasembly, a market research firm that tracks grocery store purchases, estimates that sticker prices have surged by 38.8% for all candy and chocolate since October 2020. That includes spikes of 4% for chocolate and 3.1% for candy and gum since last Halloween.

"There have been droughts in West Africa, which typically supplies 50% of the world's cacao production," said Charles Steele, chairman of the Economics Department at Hillsdale College. "On top of that, there's also the general inflation we've been experiencing."

These factors could add up to a frightful environment for families that decide they can't afford their usual expenses for celebrations, haunted houses and hayrides.

"This is a great time to talk with your children about what truly makes Halloween special — things like dressing up, telling spooky stories, baking treats and spending time together," said Laura Linn Knight, an Arizona-based parenting coach and author. "These simple moments can become far more meaningful than expensive decorations or large bags of store-bought candy."

Candy Valentino, a bestselling finance author and podcast host based in Arizona, suggested parents could also purchase more non-chocolate candies to cut back, noting that those prices have risen at about half the rate of chocolate since 2020.

She cautioned that U.S. consumer debt has reached an all-time high of over $17 trillion, making it imperative for families not to overspend this year.

"Another option is to skip Halloween altogether," Ms. Valentino said. "This economy is extremely difficult for working families and it is never a smart idea to go into credit card debt for a holiday."

Other financial advisers urged families to spend money on Halloween only after covering their outstanding food, housing and credit card bills.

Another strategy for reducing Halloween expenses is to compare online prices with store shelves.

Market researcher Pattern reported this month that the prices of several non-chocolate candies sold on Amazon have dropped slightly since last year. That includes price drops of 11% for candy corn, 7% for Starburst, 4% for Jolly Ranchers and Smarties, and 1% for Skittles.

At the same time, Amazon prices have increased by 4% for Twix bars and 30% for gummy bears since last year.

"In general, consumers hoping to save money this year would do well to shop around and buy in bulk where possible," said Hamilton Noel, a Pattern data scientist.

However, not everyone says Americans will keep their resolutions to spend less on sweets.

The National Confectioners Association, a candy industry trade group, estimates revenues will still climb by about 3% to 5% from last Halloween.

"In this environment in which consumers are facing higher food prices, people are looking for ways to manage their own personal costs," said Carly Schildhaus, a spokesperson for the association. "Yet at the same time, consumers are still turning to the confectionery category to help them elevate their most cherished moments, including the Halloween season."

As prices have risen, business experts warn salaries have failed to keep pace with inflation, leaving Americans with less to spend on Halloween than in the past.

Inflation-adjusted wages have grown by just 0.4% since the pandemic compared with an average annual increase of 1.9% before it. The price of eggs, bread and gasoline is up 40% since President Biden took office in January 2021.

"The Biden-Harris administration often talks about the economy in a positive way, pointing out things like more jobs and lower unemployment," said Angelica Gianchandani, a marketing instructor at New York University. "However, many regular people are not feeling this same sense of improvement because prices for things they need every day are still rising."

Francesco D'Acunto, a finance professor at Georgetown University, urged families to resist the urge to accumulate debt for Halloween this year.

"There is no way for consumers to dodge the general economy factors, which lead to higher prices for all food-related goods," Mr. D'Acunto said. "The only solution is buying less and being less generous when giving out treats on Halloween night, unfortunately."