Increasing Forecast Slightly, CSU Researchers Predict Very Active 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has cool neutral ENSO conditions; that is, the water temperatures are slightly below average. CSU anticipates that these waters will continue to cool relative to their long-term averages over the next several months, potentially reaching weak La Nina conditions by the peak of the
The
19 named storms
The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as two new models that use a combination of statistical information and forecasts from dynamical models from the
So far, the 2020 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1995, 2003, 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2016. "Five of these six seasons had above-average
The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be about 150 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2019's hurricane activity was about 120 percent of the average season. The 2019 season was most notable for Hurricane Dorian, which devastated the northwestern
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on
This is the 37th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued an
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.
"It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season," Bell said.
Landfalling probability included in report
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
* 70 percent for the entire
* 46 percent for the
* 45 percent for the
* 59 percent for the
The forecast team also tracks the likelihood of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the coastal
The site provides information for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the
The CSU team updates the site regularly with assistance from the
Funding for this year's report has been provided by Interstate Restoration,
Extended range
Released
(1981-2010 Climatological Average Forecast for 2020
in parentheses)
Named Storms (12.1) 19
Named Storm Days (59.4) 85
Hurricanes (6.4) 9
Hurricane Days (24.2) 40
Major Hurricanes (2.7) 4
Major Hurricane Days (6.2) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (106) 160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (116%) 170
* Numbers in ( ) represent averages based on 1981-2010 data.
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