'If you play with fire, you get burned.' Is a COVID-19-safe political event possible?

Oct. 3--Large political gatherings in North Carolina that flout safety guidelines ahead of the 2020 elections have continued even as cases of COVID-19 rise across the state.

That kind of event brought COVID-19 to the White House, resulting in President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump and some staff and party members -- including N.C. Sen. Thom Tillis -- testing positive for the coronavirus.

Can political events in North Carolina be held safely?

"In the middle of a pandemic, there's no such thing as a gathering that's 100% safe," said Pia MacDonald, infectious disease epidemiologist at RTI International. "The word 'safely' is a misnomer."

The events need to be outdoors with mandatory mask-wearing and a strict six-foot social distance to be effective, McDonald said.

In other words, they would have to look very different from what they often currently look like: no mandatory masks and people in close proximity to one another.

"If you play with fire, you get burned. There's no way around it," MacDonald said.

At the White House last Saturday during Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court nomination, people mingled, kissed and hugged, mostly without masks. Several high-profile attendees have subsequently tested positive for the coronavirus.

Health experts said that the already-present risk of COVID-19 infections in North Carolina has increased due to visits from people connected to the White House cluster.

Trump's daughter Ivanka as well as Tillis and his wife, Susan, participated in events in the state this past week.

"What you have now is a special case where there is a potential pattern of transmission from D.C. to North Carolina through these political connections," said Julie Swann, an N.C. State University professor and researcher who has worked with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "That does increase the risk for some of these political events that can be linked through potential infection."

Despite Gov. Roy Cooper's executive order limiting outdoor gatherings to 50 people and indoor gatherings to 25 people, an exemption allows "activities constituting the exercise of First Amendment rights," the governor's office told The N&O previously.

GOP gatherings in N.C.

The North Carolina Republican Party hosted Ivanka Trump at an event in Gaston County near Charlotte on Thursday before it was announced late that night that the president had tested positive for the coronavirus. Ivanka Trump, who reportedly tested negative, is seen in photos unmasked with attendees.

Macdonald of RTI International said lack of knowledge about the testing protocol poses an increased risk to attendees.

"It's not clear what kind of testing the White House received," she said. "They have not released and won't release when President Trump had a negative test last, so we don't know how long he could have possibly been walking around positive for the virus."

A rapid test, for example, is not as accurate as nose swab tests, McDonald said, so it could have missed the virus in someone who attended.

Recent tweets from N.C. GOP Chairman Michael Whatley show images of other large gatherings with few people wearing masks and little or no social distancing.

One tweet shows an event for Black GOP members that was held Tuesday in Raleigh -- held indoors with little mask-wearing and more than 25 people, the limit to indoor gatherings under Cooper's executive order. Another celebration -- a large outdoor event with no masks or social distancing -- was held Friday night in Randolph County.

N.C. GOP spokesman Tim Wigginton told The N&O that they were in the "evaluation stage" on whether to continue hosting events.

People who were in close contact with Tillis are being tracked to avoid any potential spread of COVID-19.

The senator attended a Mecklenburg County Republican Party event in Charlotte on Sept. 26, and can be seen in a photo without a mask.

"We have not been contacted about the visit. We will continue to assess the situation and make any additional recommendations," Mecklenburg County Health Director Gibbie Harris said in an email.

"However, we have and continue to recommend that individuals attending gatherings where there is little or no social distancing and little or no face coverings in use, get tested," Harris added.

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