Idalia expected to hit Florida's Big Bend Wednesday as major hurricane

Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to make landfall on Florida's Big Bend coastline at midday Wednesday as a major, Category 3 hurricane, with top winds of 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

A storm surge warning has been posted for much of that area for waters as high as 12 feet above ground level, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend Region.

At 4 p.m. Monday, Idalia was nearing hurricane strength as it approached western Cuba in the Yucatan Straits, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the hurricane center's afternoon forecast.

"On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday," said a 4 p.m. National Hurricane Center public advisory.

"Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane this evening or tonight, and become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night," the advisory said.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outwards up to 150 miles from the storm's center.

The present forecast track has the center of the storm making landfill on Wednesday somewhere between the Aucilla River to the north on the Florida coast, to the town of Chassohowitzka to the south, the same area with the largest chance of storm surge heights. Tampa and Tampa Bay are just south of that area.

The forecast track and cone surrounding it represent the best estimate of the location of the center of the storm, and could change over the next few days. Actual effects of the storm, including winds, rainfall and storm surge flooding often occur outside the cone.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday ordered the state's emergency operation center to open on Monday morning, and officials already have opened seven emergency shelters in Hernando and Manatee counties. He has declared a state of emergency for 46 Florida counties.

Idalia is one of three systems the National Hurricane Center is tracking.

Where is Tropical Storm Idalia?

At 4 p.m., Idalia was was 35 miles south southwest of the western tip of Cuba and 265 miles south southwest of the Dry Tortugas islands off the southern tip of Florida. It was moving north at 8 mph.

Hurricane Franklin

Hurricane Franklin, the first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season, is expected to peak as a Category 4 storm before it veers northeast and hits conditions that should force it to degenerate within the next several days.

Located about 455 miles southwest of Bermuda, at 5 p.m. Eastern time, Franklin has maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, Category 4 strength, and was moving north at 9 mph.

"This northward to north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on Wednesday," said a 5 p.m. hurricane center discussion message.

Life-threatening surf and rip currents were occurring along parts of the coast of the southeastern U.S. and at Bermuda because of Franklin, and a tropical storm watch was put in effect for Bermuda, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 48 hours.

The surf and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the U.S. east coast and into Canada over the next few days.

Franklin made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm last week, reemerging over the Atlantic Ocean, and has been strengthening since then.

Next storm?

The National Hurricane Center also is tracking a tropical wave that's forecast to move off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic over the next day or two.

"Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic," said Hurricane Specialist Lisa Bucci in a 1 p.m. tropical outlook message.

That system is given a 50%, or medium, chance of developing into a depression over the next seven days.

The busiest time of hurricane season

Mid-August through mid-October is historically the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season, and National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center meteorologists and national, state and local emergency managers urge coastal residents to already be prepared for potential storms.

Over the last 100 years, Sept. 10 has been considered the peak of the season, according to federal forecasters. And Louisiana has seen many major hurricanes during the peak period, including Hurricane Betsy's Sept. 9, 1965 landfall and the Aug. 29 landfalls of Katrina in 2005, Isaac in 2012, and Ida in 2021.

The 2023 hurricane season

The return of El Niño was expected to bring a wetter second half of the year to Louisiana and a reduced risk of hurricanes because of its creation of storm-busting windshear in the Atlantic.

But much warmer water temperatures than normal in portions of the Atlantic that spawn hurricanes has seemed to outweigh that pattern, resulting in more active than normal forecasts for the hurricane season from climatologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expecting as many as 21 named storms, including up to 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, Category 3 and above.

This year's first cyclone actually formed in January, long before the official start of hurricane season, and the count so far this year includes seven tropical storms and two hurricanes.

The first named storm was Arlene, which formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then headed south towards Cuba, seeing maximum wind speeds of only 40 mph before dissipating.

Don was the first storm to reach hurricane status in 2023, producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 mph on July 22 before rapidly weakening to a tropical storm the following day.

On August 22, Tropical Storm Harold made landfall at Texas' Padre Island with top winds of 50 mph. The storm weakened into a remnant low while inland in Texas the next day.

Idalia will be followed by Jose and Katia. Here's a link to the lists of names for storms in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans over the next six years.

Tips to prepare for hurricane season

Forecasters say now is the time to review hurricane plans and make sure your property is ready for a storm. Here are some tips from the National Weather Service for how to prepare for the season:

Put together an emergency kit.

Check emergency equipment, such as flashlights, generators and storm shutters.

Before an emergency happens, make a plan with your family or close friends and decide how you will get in touch and where you will go if there's an emergency.

Plan your evacuation route and have an alternate route.

Review your insurance policies.

Keep your trees around your home trimmed to prevent damage from broken branches.

Have materials in advance to board windows to protect them from flying debris.

Here's a link to the Louisiana Emergency Preparedness Guide.

Storm categories

On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the wind categories are:

Tropical storm: 39 to 73 mph

Category 1 hurricane: 74 to 95 mph

Category 2 hurricane: 96 to 110 mph

Category 3 hurricane (major hurricane): 111 to 129 mph

Category 4 hurricane: 130-156 mph

Category 5 hurricane: 157 mph and higher

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