Hurricane season just around the corner

May 21-- May 21--ELIZABETHTOWN -- Twice in 23 months.

Hard as it is to fathom, Bladen County had two major hurricanes just that quick. In fact, months after Florence came through, deadlines for getting assistance for Matthew were still being made available. The governor was in Bladen County just weeks prior to Florence arriving, meeting workers after a hurricane application center -- for Matthew -- opened on U.S. 701 North.

One week from Saturday, it's officially hurricane season until Nov. 30.

There is already a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic getting minor attention. It was possible a cyclone could develop, but computer models did not have it moving toward the U.S. mainland.

The federal government issues an official seasonal outlook for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, more commonly known as NOAA. Predictions from other entities are already out.

NOAA's forecasts, in part because of their timing close to the start of the season, have a 70 percent confidence level that activity will fall within predicted ranges. Their accuracy rate is 70 percent.

The Colorado State University forecast, often very accurate, predicts 13 named storms and five hurricanes; two will be major. The N.C. State University forecast, announced shortly after, predicts 13-16 named storms, five to seven hurricanes, and two to three major storms.

The Weather Company, an IBM business, predicts 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The Atlantic average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major storms.

There were eight hurricanes in 2018. In addition to Florence, Hurricane Michael was a category 5 power that pummeled the Florida Panhandle.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is reminding that it takes 30 days from the date of purchase for a National Flood Insurance Program policy to take effect. Flooding, a news release says, is the most common natural disaster in the United States and often does not result in a federal disaster declaration when FEMA offers help.

More than 20 percent of flood claims come from areas outside high-risk flood zones, the release says.

When FEMA issues a home repair grant, it provides only the basic emergency assistance. It is not intended as full replacement, as would insurance. Flood insurance, however, covers more. After Florence, policyholders in North Carolina averaged $40,000 in payments.

The average cost for an NFIP policy, nationally, is about $700.

Alan Wooten can be reached at 910-247-9132 or [email protected]. Twitter: @alanwooten19.

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(c)2019 the Bladen Journal (Elizabethtown, N.C.)

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