Hurricane Dorian: Storm is DeSantis’ first big crisis test

Hurricane Dorian is building strength in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is nearing the Bahamas with an expected Florida landfall Tuesday, possibly as a Category 4 storm. But its eventual target in the Sunshine State is an unknown, with DeSantis acknowledging that much of the state's east coast is vulnerable for possible landfall, and computer models varied on where it would head after landfall, potentially crossing the state or even trekking northward up the peninsula.

DeSantis' advice to Floridians waiting and worrying?

"Just watch, and react accordingly," he said.

By contrast, Scott urged residents to "go now," days before Category 4 Hurricane Irma made landfall near Cudjoe Key on Sept. 10, 2017. Most of Florida's 67 counties issued evacuation orders in advance of the storm, with Scott going on television to prod people to go by warning that Irma was "bigger than our entire state."

In the end, the state's Division of Emergency Management estimated that more than 6.5 million Floridians evacuated their homes.

Interstate 75 and Interstate 95 were gridlocked by fleeing residents, hotels became overrun, gas stations depleted, and airports swarmed, with the chaotic chain of events initially caused by those trying to leave the Florida Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

But then, a day before the storm's landfall, Irma shifted toward Florida's west coast, threatening the lower Keys and such cities as Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa. Even more people took to the jammed roadways.

Irma eventually caused its worst damage in the Keys, particularly Big Pine Key and became one of the costliest storms in U.S. history.

While Florida may still face mass evacuations with Dorian, DeSantis appears intent on taking a measured approach.

"With storms, especially this one so far out, so many things can happen even until the last moment before landfall," said Jack Nicholson, a Florida State University professor who spent two decades as chief operating officer of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which was born out of 1992's Hurricane Andrew to help stabilize the state's insurance market.

"Evacuations are always tricky. If you're in a storm surge area, yes, you have to get out," he added. "But sometimes hurricanes can follow you to where you go. Either way, people should be making plans right now and should be ready to evacuate."

Dave Mica, executive director of the Florida Petroleum Council, said the state has enough gas to supply motorists if evacuation orders do come down. Most of Florida's fuel supply comes from refineries in nearby Gulf Coast states, which -- for now -- are out of the way of Hurricane Dorian.

"I think we're in pretty good shape," Mica said. "That's not to say that some gas stations may run out of fuel as demand goes up."

He added: "Of course, a lot can happen between now and tomorrow morning with hurricanes."

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