How Might Trump’s Promised New Tax Cut Affect The Midterms?

American, The (USA)

On the campaign trail last week, President Trump said he had been working on "a very major tax cut" for middle-income taxpayers. It caught many in Congress by surprise, but on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he had been working with GOP House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady to develop a new plan that would be presented soon. Congress is out of session, so any action is far down the road.

Recent national polls show that tax cuts aren't at the top of the public's agenda. A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll taken from mid-September to early October found that 71 percent of registered voters said health care would be very important to their vote, followed by 64 percent who chose the economy and jobs. Fifty-three percent mentioned tax cuts/tax reform. When Fox News asked registered voters in mid-October how important ten different things would be to their vote, 42 percent said taxes would be extremely important. The issue trailed health care, the economy, President Trump himself, and immigration. Thirty-nine percent of Democrats in the poll said taxes would be extremely important compared to nearly half, 49 percent, of Republicans.

A review of the major polls conducted since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 became law show that a lot of people still don't have an opinion about it. An Economist/YouGov online poll from late December 2017-early January 2018 found 37 percent supported the plan, with 39 percent opposed. Their latest, from late September through early October, showed 31 percent in favor and 35 percent opposed. More than a third, 34 percent, had no opinion. A Morning Consult/Politico poll from January 2018 found 45 percent supported the law, with 34 percent opposed. In their latest, 37 percent supported it and 39 percent opposed it. Twenty-four percent answered that they didn't know or had no opinion. Fox News also asked people whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of the 2017 tax reform law. In their mid-October poll, Fox News found that 44 percent of registered voters had a favorable opinion and 35 percent an unfavorable one. Twenty-one percent couldn't say or had never heard of the law. As a point of comparison, 53 percent had a favorable view of the 2010 health care law and 42 percent an unfavorable one.

Media reporting suggests that the new tax bill hasn't had much impact on voters. There are several possible explanations. First, people don't trust politicians' tax cut promises. When CBS News and the New York Times reminded people that Barack Obama had said during the 2008 campaign that he would not raise taxes on households earning less than $250,00 a year "by a single dime," only 35 percent said he would keep the promise, while 56 percent said he would not. A second explanation is that most people say they haven't seen more money in their paychecks. Sixty percent of registered voters gave that response to Fox News in September. I've long believed that people don't separate their federal tax burden from their total tax burden, so most people probably think some of their taxes are always going up and that makes them generally skeptical of tax cuts. In another question in the Fox poll, 32 percent said it had helped the nation's economy, 25 percent hurt, and 30 percent not made much difference either way. A third explanation is that generally negative media coverage of the bill in our polarized country positioned opinions in place. Perhaps if President Trump had stayed on message consistently about the economy's performance and the role of tax cuts role in it, things might have been different.

Will the prospect of a new tax cut energize some GOP voters who have been more enthusiastic about it all along? It's possible, but it's late. It's also unlikely that Trump will stick to the script.

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* 2018 Elections