House Oversight & Accountability Subcommittee Issues Testimony From Northmarq CEO Weidell
* * *
Chairwoman McClain, Ranking Member Porter, and members of the subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on behalf of the Mortgage Bankers Association1 (MBA). My name is
In my written statement and through my remarks, I will provide an overview of the commercial/multifamily real estate sector, a "snapshot" of its current economic landscape, and details regarding immediate actions
OVERVIEW OF THE
The commercial real estate (CRE) market is big and diverse - with a range of different property types, geographic markets and submarkets, borrower and lender types, and loan and deal vintages. For example, the list of property types includes multifamily, office, retail, industrial, lodging, self-storage, and many others. These properties are located in real estate markets across the country -
There are properties in downtown office corridors, entertainment districts, edge cities, retail strips, suburban neighborhoods, and exurban markets. They are owned by cross-border investors, sophisticated institutions and funds, public companies like REITs, private investors and individuals, and more. Meanwhile, the loans supporting these properties are either funded or subsidized by banks, life insurance companies, the housing
1 The
* * *
This is all to say it is exceedingly difficult to paint the picture of commercial real estate with broad brushstrokes. CRE operates within three different market divisions - space, equity, and debt. Over the last two years, there have been significant changes in all three of these market niches.
In the space markets - the supply and demand for commercial real estate space - all eyes recently have been fixed on office properties and the impacts of hybrid work. Living in
In the equity markets - which drive property values and sales activity - large amounts of capital have been raised to invest, but a lack of sales transactions has made pricing less transparent. Different price indices indicate commercial property prices could be down anywhere between 9 and 22 percent from their recent peaks. In general, existing owners are holding onto their properties unless something (e.g., loans that are maturing, property cash flows and major lease rolls, etc.) forces their hands.
In the debt markets, interest rates began to rise dramatically two years ago, which clearly changed the borrowing environment for a wide range of property owners and potential owners. Rate volatility has made pricing new deals challenging and many owners and lenders are holding on to their positions, hoping that falling rates will eventually bring some relief. Given where we had been, rates on 10-year
The uncertainty across all these markets has led to a significant slowdown in CRE transaction activity. If a property owner does not need to act with regard to a sale or a refinancing, they generally have not. This has frozen the fluidity of the markets, with both sales transaction volume and mortgage borrowing down roughly 50 percent in 2023 from the previous year.
Focusing more specifically on the commercial mortgage market, it, too, is far from monolithic. MBA estimates there is
Commercial banks hold the largest share (38 percent) at
Delinquency rates on commercial mortgages have been rising, particularly for loans backed by office properties. Twenty percent (
Between 2014 - a full 10 years ago now - and mid-2022, CRE property values grew by 90 percent, and multifamily values grew by 144 percent. Simply put, if an owner has been holding their property over time, they have likely built a fair amount of equity.
The real challenge - and opportunity - is that the markets have reset from where they were just a few years ago - in terms of interest rates, property values, and, in some instances, the fundamental operations of the properties themselves. Owners, potential owners, developers, lenders, and other market participants are all working through the process of transitioning the CRE market to that new reality.
THE
The
The gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, down from 4.9 percent in Q3 but otherwise the strongest showing since the end of 2021. Consumer expenditures remained robust, with spending on goods growing at a real rate of 3.0 percent per year and spending on services growing by 3.4 percent. The preliminary GDP numbers for Q1 of 2024 showed continued economic growth, but at a pace roughly half that of the previous quarter.
The job market has been equally steady, adding a seasonally adjusted average of 212,000 jobs per month during Q4 of 2023 and 256,000 in January, 270,000 in February, and 303,000 in March. The unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in March.
The still-tight labor market has helped elevate hourly earnings to be 4.1 percent higher than they were a year ago. Headline inflation was 3.5 percent in March (down from its
The
PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS
Commercial property markets are dynamic, with different property types moving in different directions, and significant variation by property type and subtype, market and submarket, quality, vintage, and more.
Office
In
Now, another year and a half later, that question remains largely unanswered, although we are starting to see some trends. Offices have seen an uptick in usage, with significant variation between markets and submarkets. Location and property quality definitely matter. In a recent note,
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
Retail
As MBA has noted previously, there are certain similarities between where the office market is today and where retail was a number of years ago. Questions about the future of malls and a general "over-retailing" of
For example,
* * *
[View table in the link at bottom.]
* * *
Apartment/Multifamily
After a number of years of demand significantly outstripping the supply of apartments, developers ramped up building activity and the reverse is now true. An annualized pace of more than 500,000 multifamily units were delivered in
That new supply has brought the multifamily rental vacancy rate from 6.5 percent at the end of 2022 to 7.7 percent (as of the end of 2023). Following the dictates of basic economic theory, the rent pressure observed when demand exceeded supply has softened. A new series from the
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
The moderation in rent growth will bring relief to many tenants and potential challenges to some owners whose expenses outpace income growth. It is also unlikely to significantly aid the many renter households whose incomes are below what it costs to build and maintain housing and who depend on some form of subsidy to make up the gap.
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
Industrial
Industrial market dynamics are - in broad terms - similar to those in multifamily. The onset of the pandemic led to a surge in demand that easily exceeded existing supply - driving vacancies lower and rents higher. Strong new development followed, bringing with it higher vacancy rates and more stability to rents. That, in turn, has slowed the development pipeline. For example, on their Q4 earnings call,
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
PROPERTY SALES
Sales of commercial real estate properties remained subdued during Q4 2023, capping a year of subpar activity. Sales activity in Q4 was 38 percent lower than a year earlier and down 51 percent for the year. The slower decline in Q4 is less a sign of market improvement and more the mathematical result of the fact that Q4 2022 had already seen a significant slide from previous quarters.
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
Counter to what one might conclude from the headlines, the drop-off in sales was not all about office properties. While sales of office properties slid 56 percent from 2022 to 2023, sales of retail properties fell 38 percent, industrial fell 44 percent, hotel fell 47 percent, and apartments fell 61 percent.
The lack of sales transactions continues to leave a "blind spot" on property valuations, with different price indexes showing different results. A CRE price index used by the
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS
Borrowing and lending backed by commercial real estate remained subdued to close out 2023.
The fourth quarter saw a small pick-up from the previous quarter, as is usually the case, but was still down about 25 percent from 2022's already suppressed fourth-quarter pace. For the year, mortgage originations were about 50 percent below 2022 levels, with every major property type and capital source experiencing a decline.
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 25 percent lower in Q4 of 2023 compared to a year earlier and increased 13 percent from Q3 of 2023.
Decreases in originations for office, health care, multifamily, and industrial properties led to the overall drop in commercial lending volumes when compared to Q4 of 2022. There was a 68 percent year-over-year decrease in the dollar volume of loans for office properties, a 39 percent decrease for health care properties, a 27 percent decrease for multifamily properties, and a 7 percent decrease for industrial properties. Retail properties increased 50 percent, and hotel property loan originations increased 81 percent, respectively, compared to Q4 of 2022.
Among investor types, the dollar volume of loans originated for depositories decreased by 53 percent year-over-year. There was a 29 percent decrease for GSE loans, a 6 percent decrease in life insurance company loans, and a one percent decrease for investor-driven lender loans. And there was a 144 percent increase in the dollar volume of CMBS loans.
MORTGAGE MATURITIES
The lack of transactions and other activity last year, coupled with built-in extension options and lender and servicer flexibility, has meant that many loans that were set to mature in 2023 have been extended or otherwise modified and will now mature in 2024, 2026, 2028 or in other coming years. These extensions and modifications have pushed the amount of CRE mortgages maturing this year from
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
The loan maturities vary significantly by investor and property type groups. Just
By property type, 12 percent of mortgages backed by multifamily properties will mature in 2024, as will 17 percent of those backed by retail and 18 percent for healthcare properties. Among loans backed by office properties, 25 percent will come due in 2024, as will 27 percent of industrial loans and 38 percent of hotel/motel loans.
Commercial mortgages tend to be relatively long-lived, spreading maturities out over several years. Volatility and uncertainty around interest rates, a lack of clarity on property values, and questions about some property fundamentals have suppressed sales and financing transactions. This year's maturities, coupled with greater clarity in those and other areas, should begin to break the logjam in the markets.
* * *
MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING
The amount of commercial mortgage debt outstanding grew in the final quarter of 2023 and for the year as a whole. However, the increase was among the slowest paces since the mid2010s.
Total mortgage debt outstanding rose by 0.9 percent (
Commercial banks continue to hold the largest share (38 percent) of commercial mortgages at
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
Looking solely at multifamily mortgages, GSE portfolios hold the largest share of total debt outstanding at
Every major capital source increased its mortgage holdings during the year. Mortgage originations were down by roughly 50 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, but that meant that few loans were paying off, helping maintain portfolio sizes even in the face of lower inflows.
LOAN PERFORMANCE
While overall delinquencies remained flat, the delinquency rate for loans backed by office properties rose again during the first three months of this year. Loans across property types are adjusting to higher interest rates and uncertainty about property values, but the continued fog around the impact of hybrid work adds another challenge for office properties and their loans.
As noted previously, the commercial real estate market is large and diverse, with a wide mix of property types, geographic markets and submarkets, property and loan sizes, owners, lenders, vintages, and other characteristics. With 20 percent of the
* * *
[View chart in the link at bottom.]
* * *
The balance of commercial mortgages that are not current was unchanged in the First Quarter 2024 (compared to Q4 2023).
* 96.8% of outstanding loan balances were current or less than 30 days late at the end of the quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter.
- 2.5% were 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure/"real estate owned" (REO), up from 2.3% the previous quarter.
- 0.3% were 60-90 days delinquent, unchanged from the previous quarter.
- 0.4% were 30-60 days delinquent, down from 0.6%.
* Loans backed by office properties drove the increase.
- 6.8% of the balance of office property loans were 30 days or more days delinquent, up from 6.5% at the end of last quarter.
- 6.3% of the balance of lodging loans were delinquent, up from 6.1%.
- 4.7% of retail balances were delinquent, down from 5.0% the previous quarter.
- 1.2% of multifamily balances were delinquent, unchanged from the previous quarter.
- 1.2% of the balance of industrial property loans were delinquent, up from 0.9%.
Every major capital source has seen an increase over the last six months, as higher interest rates, uncertainty about property values, and challenges in some property fundamentals work their way through the markets.
Based on the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of loans, delinquency rates for each group at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 were as follows:
* Banks and thrifts (90 or more days delinquent or in non-accrual): 0.94 percent, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from the third quarter of 2023;
* Life company portfolios (60 or more days delinquent): 0.36 percent, an increase of 0.04 percentage points from the third quarter of 2023;
*
*
* CMBS (30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure/REO: 4.30 percent, an increase of 0.04 percentage points from the third quarter of 2023.
Long-term interest rates have come down from their highs of last year, which should provide some relief to some loans, but many properties and loans still face higher rates, uncertainty about property values and - for some properties - changes in fundamentals. Each loan and property faces a different set of circumstances, which will come into play as the market works through loans that mature this year.
REGULATORY IMPEDIMENTS
Basel III End Game
The Basel III End Game proposal (Basel NPR) poses unwarranted risks - to the housing and real estate markets specifically - and contradicts many of the Biden administration's policy goals, including increasing affordable housing (both ownership and rental), fostering bank competition over consolidation, and the closing of significant racial homeownership and wealth gaps.
The proposed changes effectively increase capital requirements at larger banks by an estimated 15 to 20 percent - large enough to impact credit availability economy-wide, as well as which lines of business banks choose to support - with potential implications for the entire mortgage market, including commercial and multifamily lending.
For commercial real estate specifically, the Basel NPR contains several concerning provisions that could negatively impact the availability of commercial credit. For example, the
* Banks do not have a system or framework in place to track in real-time all debt obligations of their borrowers and any parent companies/owners of the borrower.
* Creditors do not notify other creditors of a default or cure event, nor is there a uniform national data repository for real estate loan status, including defaults and cures.
Also, most commercial real estate loans are made on a non-recourse basis (secured only by the property) to a bankruptcy-remote special purpose entity with no other real estate obligations. In these cases, evaluating default at the exposure level and the obligor level is the same. The default status of mortgages made to and backed by single-purpose, bankruptcy-remote entities that own income-producing properties should be entirely dependent on the status of that particular loan.
Furthermore, the Basel NPR could raise capital charges on undrawn warehouse lines of credit, thereby decreasing financing opportunities available to commercial real estate lenders and borrowers - and making securitization executions more expensive.
The Basel NPR also lacks the robust economic impact analysis that usually accompanies such a significant change in bank capital standards - a scant 15 pages of impact assessment out of nearly 1,100 total pages for the rule. Any major change in public policy warrants a reasonable consideration of its effects and impacts - especially when the policy change directly impacts everything from the cost of funds for our largest financial institutions to the costs of multifamily housing.
Given the broad bipartisan criticism of the Basel NPR to date,
Our recommendations provide targeted fixes to the proposed capital rule - and address longstanding problems with the current rules - that will strengthen the stability of our commercial lending and housing finance system by incentivizing large banks to increase their direct and indirect role in the market.
Rent Control
Early last year, the Biden administration announced actions to "enhance tenant protections and further principles of fair housing." The announcement included new actions by several federal agencies and a set of principles called the "Blueprint for a Renters Bill of Rights." Included in the set of federal agency actions was an examination by the
The
For decades, the adoption of rent control policies by states and localities has been shown to decrease affordable housing supply and disproportionately benefit higher-income households. An example of rent control significantly reducing housing supply was recently seen in
The administration should refine and prioritize its Housing Supply Act Plan, avoiding the application of rent control principles - under the guise of tenant protections - to the Fannie/Freddie or FHA multifamily financing programs.
2 See 2021 vs 2022 for
3 See id for
* * *
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
HMDA requires mortgage lenders to collect and report information on specific data points pertaining to their lending practices. The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 (DFA) transferred HMDA enforcement to the
MBA believes the
Section 1071 Small Business Reporting
On
MBA urged the
POTENTIAL POSITIVE STEPS
HUD
Simply stated, HUD is quickly becoming the most expensive and inefficient place to originate an apartment loan, has outdated program requirements, employs the use of unnecessary and exorbitant fees - and, as a result, lender participation in its multifamily program volume is historically low.
HUD multifamily volume is down significantly over recent years in all aspects of the Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP) program. Volume decreased 58% from FY 2022 to FY 2023 and, based on annualized Q1 FY 2024 data, volume is on pace to be down another 42% from FY 2023 to FY 2024. That would be a 75% decrease from FY 2022 to FY 2024.
The federal government has an opportunity to spur the production of rental housing through the HUD MAP program, but improvements are greatly needed. Specifically, HUD should reduce the multifamily mortgage insurance premium (which is priced too high for the minimal amount of risk the government takes on with the HUD multifamily program), reduce application and other closing fees, and reconsider and ease program requirements that raise the cost of building rental housing.
Reduce Multifamily Mortgage Insurance Premium
The administration has broadly focused on the use of hidden fees, including the potential elimination of unnecessary fees for consumers. It is ironic, therefore, that HUD itself has placed burdens on renters today by imposing hidden, duplicative, and unnecessarily high fees on developers and providers of housing. These costs result in fewer units being developed and higher rents for tenants.
The mortgage insurance premium (MIP) charged to FHA borrowers is designed to protect taxpayers and is meant to reflect the risk to the
Reduce Application and Other Closing Fees
HUD's application fee adds additional cost to the already high price of FHA financing. Per the MAP Guide, HUD's non-refundable application fee for a multifamily FHA loan is
HUD loans also come with a significant list of fees both at closing and through the servicing of a property. These fees are both costly and duplicative. For example, Mortgagee Letter 2013-13, "Lender Delegation of
The number of third-party reports required by HUD also goes far beyond what is required from any other type of loan. These studies are very costly and time-intensive and often delay construction for properties. Some examples of these reports include noise surveys, nesting bird surveys, vibration studies, a fall study if properties are located proximate to certain free-standing structures such as a water tower, cell tower, high voltage utility pole, a seismic engineering report, a pipeline risk analysis, and more. Developers also are often required to provide "willserve" letters from schools, hospitals, and police and fire stations -- which duplicates what is provided for or required in the zoning and permitting process.
Reconsider Program Requirements that Raise the Cost of
Lenders are very concerned about the new regulations creating new floodplain and energy efficiency standards that will make FHA financing nearly impossible. These new rules rely on government-provided Climate-Informed Science Approach (CISA) Maps, which have yet to be created for most of the country. The new floodplain standard requires significant changes to site development including a large amount of fill and increased elevations. Soil import from certified fill sites may require additional transport costs if distances for such are farther from the site. Earthwork and compacting costs of the additional fill may increase project costs above an affordable level for the development. Based on our members' conversations with builders, the additional costs of construction are estimated to be between
HUD last week also published new energy efficiency standards, which require all FHA-insured properties to use the 2021 International Energy Construction Code (IECC) building standard. HUD's notice of preliminary determination in the
Today, most states use energy codes that are effectively the 2009 IECC standard. The giant leap in building standards up to the 2021 standard will significantly increase construction costs and will simply price developers out of building their projects, further exacerbating the shortage of multifamily housing development. Furthermore, since only 18 states currently use the 2021 building code, those states will not be prepared to enforce the new building code, adding delays and costs in finding authorized building inspectors. FHA properties will face far higher costs than any other properties due to this requirement, which will significantly impact the supply of new affordable rental housing.
Property insurance has become an acute issue in the commercial real estate market. Many insurers and re-insurers have withdrawn from states (e.g.,
Property premiums in the
To promote market stability and insurer solvency, MBA urges the
ACTIONS CONGRESS SHOULD TAKE
Legislation that would tackle the shortage of affordable rental units and address inflation impacts includes:
* The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) - The
* Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act (AHCIA) - H.R. 3238, sponsored by Reps.
* Build More Housing Near Transit Act - S. 3216, sponsored by Senators
* Housing Supply and Affordability Act - S. 3684, sponsored by Senators
FHA Statutory Loan Limits
MBA supports S.3682, sponsored by Senator
* FHA's base statutory limits define the amount of multifamily mortgages HUD will insure. These mortgages are also capped by other factors such as debt service coverage and loan-to-value requirements.
* FHA Multifamily statutory base limits have not been adjusted since 2003.
* Changing the inflation-adjustment index for these loan limits from the CPI to the Price Deflator index (from 2003 to present), would mean that base limits for 2022 (and beyond) would be 26% higher than the current levels.
Office Conversions
MBA supports incentivizing adaptive reuse of underutilized commercial properties. Prior
Workforce Housing/Middle-Income Housing Tax Credit (MIHTC)
MBA supports the Workforce Housing Tax Credit Act, bipartisan legislation introduced by Sens.
YIMBY
MBA supports the Yes In My Back Yard (YIMBY) Act, bipartisan legislation sponsored by Sens.
Other Key CRE Tax Considerations
Regardless of the 2024 election cycle outcomes,
In that vein, key provisions impacting the Section 199A small business "pass-through" deduction against Qualified Business Income (QBI), bonus depreciation (leasehold improvements/qualified improvement property), business interest deductibility (the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization or "EBITDA" definition), and Opportunity Zones are all set to expire (or have expired).
Other important provisions that could negatively impact CRE stakeholders, if either altered or considered as part of the 2025 debate to pay for other changes to the tax code, include: changes to the capital gains rate, the treatment of the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) as applied to certain forms of income, Section 1031 Like Kind Exchanges, carried interest, cost recovery (depreciation recapture), step-up in basis (taxing gains at death), certain partnership tax reforms, and/or the taxing of yet-unrealized gains.
Given the crucial role CRE plays in the sustained health of the American economy, MBA will continue to urge the
CONCLUSION
Thank you again for this opportunity to represent the MBA - and the commercial real estate finance industry - and appear before you today to discuss CRE market dynamics.
Our association and its members look forward to collaborating with you and your offices to advance the recommendations - both legislative and regulatory - mentioned within my statement.
I look forward to answering any questions you may have.
* * *
Original text here: https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Weidell-Written-Testimony.pdf



2024 State of Risk Report Highlights Deprioritization of Core Risk Management Activities
ICC Holdings Comments on Stilwell Group’s Rejection of Settlement Offer
Advisor News
- The overlooked retirement security risk that must be addressed
- What advisors should know about hedge funds in retirement planning
- Retirement control is top success measure for middle class, ACLI says
- Industry groups applaud House passage of Financial Exploitation Prevention Act
- Younger workers more likely to be eligible for a retirement plan after changing jobs
More Advisor NewsAnnuity News
- Malibu Life Holdings Completes Acquisition of TruSpire, Establishing Malibu USA and Accelerating Entry into the U.S. Retail Annuity Market
- Why job boards are failing insurance agencies
- MassMutual Ranks No. 100 on the 2026 Fortune 500® List
- What’s fueling record annuity growth?
- Jackson Named InvestmentNews 2026 Annuities Provider of the Year
More Annuity NewsHealth/Employee Benefits News
- Former city DPW director wants opportunity to 'defend my actions' in light of separation agreement
- CDPHP, MVP Health Care among insurers seeking rate increases
- How health insurers get a free pass to deny coverage from a 52‑year‑old law meant to protect worker pensions
- Reports from Capital One AG Describe Recent Advances in Managed Care (Factors Affecting Medical Appointment Adherence among Adolescents and Young Adults with Kidney Disease: A Longitudinal Cohort Study): Managed Care
- Studies from University of Alabama Further Understanding of Neurology (Understanding stroke caregiving in rural contexts: a qualitative study of family caregivers’ cultural values, coping behaviors, and technology use): Health and Medicine – Neurology
More Health/Employee Benefits NewsLife Insurance News
- NAIFA praises House committee approval of Clarity for Compensation Act
- PHL Variable liquidation pushed out to 2027, Connecticut regulators say
- ‘Recession-Proof’ Insurance Is Trending. Safety Net or Scam?
- Winged Keel Group Expands National Presence and PPLI Leadership, Welcomes SBSI, Inc. (dba NFP Insurance Solutions)
- MassMutual Ranks No. 100 on the 2026 Fortune 500® List
More Life Insurance News