Home Price Appreciation In Highest-Risk Natural Hazard Cities 1.7 Times The Overall Market Rate Over Last Decade
For the report ATTOM indexed natural hazard risk in more than 3,000 counties and more than 22,000
2018 Natural Hazards Housing Risk County Heat Map
"While combined natural disaster risk has not seemed to hobble home price appreciation over the past decade, the story is much different for some individual hazard risks — namely flood, hurricane storm surge and wildfire risk," said
Overall Natural Hazard Risk Category |
||||||
Housing Metric |
Very Low |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
|
Grand Total |
Number of Cities |
524 |
522 |
524 |
523 |
523 |
2616 |
|
9,185,179 |
9,434,995 |
11,107,207 |
12,524,073 |
11,039,375 |
53,290,829 |
Average Home Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Property |
45 |
43 |
39 |
36 |
42 |
41 |
Average Property Tax |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Property Tax Rate |
1.7% |
1.4% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
0.9% |
1.3% |
Average Foreclosure Rate |
0.65% |
0.38% |
0.36% |
0.29% |
0.21% |
0.38% |
Avg Pct Seriously Underwater (LTV 125+) |
10.2% |
9.9% |
9.8% |
7.9% |
4.7% |
8.5% |
Average Homeownership Tenure |
8.19 |
7.63 |
7.60 |
7.66 |
9.23 |
8.06 |
Average 2018 Median Sales Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Premium/Discount to Market Value |
-3.7% |
-3.7% |
-3.0% |
0.3% |
1.0% |
-1.8% |
Average of 1-Year HPA |
6% |
7% |
7% |
6% |
9% |
7% |
Average of 5-Year HPA |
29% |
39% |
39% |
43% |
54% |
41% |
Average of 10-Year HPA |
11% |
19% |
21% |
28% |
40% |
24% |
Foreclosure rates elevated in highest-risk flood cities
Foreclosure rates were lower in cities in the top 80th percentile for natural hazard housing risk, and this was true for all individual natural hazard risk types except for flood risk. In cities in the top 80th percentile for flood risk, active foreclosures represented 0.61 percent of all properties, well above the foreclosure rate of 0.38 percent across all risk categories.
"Weather is the largest external swing factor in
Cities with the highest flood risk also posted seriously underwater rates (loan-to-value ratio of 125 percent or higher) above the overall market average — 8.9 percent of all homes with a mortgage compared to 8.5 percent nationwide. Tornado risk was the only other individual natural hazard risk factor with seriously underwater rates above the market average in the highest risk cities — 10.0 percent of all homes with a mortgage.
Flood Risk Category |
||||||
Housing Metric |
Very Low |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
|
Grand Total |
Number of Cities |
1706 |
375 |
412 |
52 |
71 |
2616 |
|
33,837,100 |
7,151,355 |
8,842,553 |
1,600,266 |
1,859,555 |
53,290,829 |
Average Home Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Property |
41 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
36 |
41 |
Average Property Tax |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Property Tax Rate |
1.3% |
1.3% |
1.2% |
1.3% |
1.1% |
1.3% |
Average Foreclosure Rate |
0.37% |
0.29% |
0.41% |
0.68% |
0.61% |
0.38% |
Average Pct Seriously Underwater (LTV 125+) |
8.2% |
9.3% |
9.1% |
8.8% |
8.9% |
8.5% |
Average Homeownership Tenure |
8.13 |
7.79 |
8.00 |
8.37 |
8.01 |
8.06 |
Average 2018 Median Sales Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average 2018 Premium/Discount to Market Value |
-1.6% |
-1.8% |
-2.6% |
-2.5% |
-2.4% |
-1.8% |
Average of 1-Year HPA |
7% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
Average of 5-Year HPA |
40% |
40% |
42% |
52% |
49% |
41% |
Average of 10-Year HPA |
26% |
22% |
19% |
18% |
12% |
24% |
Buyers paid a premium for homes in highest-risk cities in 2018
The report also shows that homebuyers so far in 2018 paid an average 1.0 percent premium above estimated market value for homes in cities with the highest natural disaster risk while homes in cities with the lowest natural disaster risk sold at an average 3.7 percent discount below estimated market value.
The exception to this trend was in cities with the highest flood risk, where homes sold at an average 2.4 percent discount below estimated market value, cities with the highest tornado risk (2.2 percent discount below estimated market value), and cities with the highest hurricane storm surge risk (1.4 percent discount below estimated market value).
Counties and cities with highest natural hazard risk index
Among the 2,616 cities analyzed in the report with sufficient housing trend data, those with the top 20 highest natural hazard housing risk indexes were all located in the following metropolitan statistical areas:
Among the 440 counties analyzed in the report with sufficient housing trend data, those with the highest natural hazard housing risk indexes were
Among those same 440 counties, those with the lowest natural hazard housing risk indexes were
2018 Natural Hazards Housing Risk County Heat Map
Index Methodology
For its fifth annual Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index, ATTOM Data Solutions indexed more than 3,000
A risk index was created for each of the six natural hazards in each city and count with natural hazard data available. Each natural hazard index was divided into five categories of risk:
For the home sales and price trends analysis, the indexes in 735 counties and 3,441 cities were split into five equal groups (quintiles) matching the aforementioned five categories of risk.
Flood zone data is based on flood zones created by the
Earthquake data is from the
Tornado data is from the
Wildfire data is from the
Hurricane storm surge data is from
Hail data is from
About ATTOM Data Solutions
ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million
Media Contact:
[email protected]
Data and
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SOURCE ATTOM Data Solutions
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