Heavy rains, coastal flooding possible locally from Hurricane Dorian

Aug. 30--A strengthening Hurricane Dorian remains on course for a landfall Monday morning along central Florida's east coast, meaning folks in the Golden Isles should continue to brace for potential tropical storm force winds and heavy rains.

Lots of rain, said Nate McGinnis of the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.

Glynn County and the rest of coastal Georgia could receive up to 10 inches of rain beginning this weekend and headed into early next week, if Hurricane Dorian remains on its current track to hit near Melbourne, Fla., around 8 a.m. Monday, he said. Dorian pack sustained Category 4 force winds of up to 130 mph when it reaches Florida, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

Late Thursday afternoon, Gov. Brian Kemp issued a state of emergency for Glynn County and other coastal counties.

The declaration "extends only to commerce and the uninterrupted supply of petroleum products, emergency or disaster related materials, supplies, goods and services," county spokesman Matthew Kent said.

Compounding Dorian is an approaching nor'easter storm system that is expected to begin impacting coastal Glynn County as early as Thursday evening, forecasters said. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday will increase to an 80 percent chance of rain on Sunday and Monday, according to the National Weather Service forecasts.

The weather service has placed Glynn County on a Coastal Advisory Flood Watch at least through Sunday.

"Right now, you're looking at heavy rainfall heading into the Labor Day weekend," McGinnis said. "You're probably looking at winds along the coast with sustained tropical storm force and possibly occasional hurricane gusts. Mainly, you're looking at days and days of heavy rainfall."

As of 2 p.m. Thursday, Dorian was north of Puerto Rico and moving northwest at 13 mph with sustained winds of 85 mph. Folks at the Glynn County Emergency Management Agency are watching Dorian's progress with guarded optimism.

Dorian's speed had slowed overnight Wednesday, a development that could give it a more westerly path that would bring the hurricane ashore farther south on the Florida coast, said Alex Eaton, an EMA specialist with Glynn County EMA.

Eaton urged all residents to prepare for any potential, stocking up on basic storm kit supplies. Coastal Glynn County already is experiencing elevated high tides, which will peak with Saturday night's new moon phase. With the nor'easter coming in this weekend, coastal flooding could become a problem, he said.

"Right now we're waiting for (Dorian) to pivot, to see what direction it's going to go and where it's going to hit," Eaton said. "We're getting our best practices in place to make sure if things change, if it gets worse for us, that we're ready.

"At minimal we want to make sure we're bracing for tropical storm conditions -- winds, a possible strong storm surge, and all that comes along with that. And with that nor'easter developing, we're going to see more water in the estuaries at a time of abnormally high tides."

The county EMA urges residents to stock up now on bottled water, nonperishable foods, flashlights, battery-operated UHF-band radios, spare batteries, medications, pet supplies and more. Also, Eaton said, have an evacuation plan in place, complete with details settled on transportation and destination.

"It has slowed down in its approach, and it has a chance to go more west and hit lower in Florida," Eaton said. "That would lessen the effects on us, but there's still too many variables involved to give a definitive answer."

One tracking model shows Dorian turning north after landfall, making a slow trek across the spine of Florida's peninsula as it weakens on land, McGinnis said. Under that model, Dorian could still be a tropical system as it reaches Florida's panhandle Wednesday morning, he said.

With coastal Georgia positioned on the more active right side of the hurricane's rotation throughout, the Golden Isles could be in store for a steady flow of rainfall through the middle of next week, he said.

"That puts you on the right side, where it just feeds, feeds, feeds the moisture and rain bands," McGinnis said. "As of right now, the real threat is inland and coastal flooding, and a lot of rain."

For more information, visit glynncounty.org/ema, ready.ga.gov, or redcross.org.

Folks can keep abreast of the storm at the National Hurricane Center's site: nhc.noaa.gov.

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