Ginsburg's death will reshape the November election. What does it mean for McConnell?

Sep. 21--The death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg Friday night altered the national political landscape heading into an already hotly contested November election.

Underneath the public mourning this weekend simmered a litany of political calculations that began as soon as Ginsburg's death was announced. Her death presented President Donald Trump and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell with an opportunity to confirm another conservative Supreme Court Justice and cement a 6-3 conservative majority on the court.

"President Trump's nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate," McConnell said in a statement issued Friday night, kicking off what will likely be a fierce battle over the nomination -- as well as control of the Presidency and the U.S. Senate.

Over the next 43 days, McConnell will have to weigh the effect of a tough confirmation battle on his attempt to maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate and GOP control of the presidency. That includes the electoral implications for his own seat, where he faces well-financed Democratic nominee Amy McGrath.

"I think it absolutely changes the race," said Marisa McNee, the spokeswoman for the Kentucky Democratic Party. "There is now a big, important question in front of the Senate and how Sen. McConnell will handle this when he's probably going to lose the majority. The stakes are very high."

Those stakes, though, appear to be much higher in other Senate races than in McConnell's own battle with McGrath.

If anything, said Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, the Supreme Court battle might be more likely to benefit McConnell.

"The people who tend to oppose McConnell were already highly motivated and heavily mobilized," Voss said. "That's why I say it's more likely to help Republicans or conservatives because it gives the base one of the traditional issues to get motivated."

The partisan battle over Ginsburg's seat is likely to galvanize conservatives and liberals alike. Already, Democrats have donated more than $100 million through ActBlue, a Democratic fundraising platform, in the wake of Ginsburg's death. (McGrath's campaign would not say how much they have raised since Friday.)

But a polarized election may not be helpful for McGrath, who has built her campaign on winning over the more moderate Democrats in Kentucky.

For years, Kentucky has been on a steady, rightward march in federal elections. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky since Wendell Ford won reelection in 1992 and Republicans control five out of the six independently elected constitutional offices in Frankfort.

McGrath has shown no ability to counteract that trend, said Billy Piper, a former McConnell chief of staff and campaign manager.

"She just hasn't done anything to engender enthusiasm," Piper said.

Abortion rights or health care debate?

The Supreme Court has often been a major player in the contentious social issues of the day, particularly abortion rights and same-sex marriage. In 2016, exit polls showed the prospect of naming a conservative justice played a role in winning over conservatives who were on the fence about Trump.

Those issues will again be on the minds of many voters this fall, but Democrats hope to focus attention on a case that could jeopardize the Affordable Care Act, including a popular protection for people with preexisting medical conditions.

"This whole situation could be monstrously terrible for women and gays," McNee said. "But the fight is going to be health care."

The health insurance case, Texas v. California, which has a hearing scheduled for November 10, was brought by a group of Republican Attorneys General who claim the Affordable Care Act was deemed unconstitutional when the individual mandate to purchase insurance was essentially eliminated in 2017 tax law. When a federal court agreed, the ruling was challenged by a group of Democratic Attorneys General (including former Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear).

Democrats hope that focusing on a Republican attempt to undermine the Affordable Care Act during a global pandemic will help their electoral chances.

"It's rare that we have a Supreme Court conversation that battles [abortion rights] and this certainly does," McNee said. "I think we'll been having a fight over health care from now until Election Day."

In a recent Quinnipiac Poll, which had McGrath trailing McConnell by 12 percentage points, the 8% of voters who said the Supreme Court was the most important issue in the election favored McConnell by a 63-36 margin. Of the 13% that said health care was the most important, McGrath was favored 64-32.

Regardless of party messaging, the debate is likely to be contentious. Voss said the debate could reinforce the same social and cultural issues that "shoved Kentucky to the right to begin with."

It would be another in a long line of contentious political issues in 2020 that may aid national Democrats in their effort to win control of the Senate and the Presidency but are unlikely to help McGrath in her attempt to take down McConnell.

"Almost everything that's happened has reinforced the existing polarization in American politics," Voss said.

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