FORECASTING EYE: WORLD CUP 2026 TO SUPPORT OVER $14 BILLION OF CONSUMER SPEND IN NORTH AMERICA, WITH ENGLAND AND FRANCE TOPPING THE INSURABLE VALUE RANKINGS

The following information was released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR):

Cebr estimates that the 2026 World Cup could generate around $14.1 billion in direct consumer spending across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This figure reflects spending by ticket holders and travelling fans on categories including transport, tickets, accommodation, food and drink, merchandise, and other associated purchases. Meanwhile, an update to Cebr's insurance model places England and France as the most valuable participating teams.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams and the first to be jointly hosted by three countries. While some uncertainty remains regarding total ticket sales, the tournament's expanded format and sheer geographic scale are expected to generate substantial travel and consumer activity across North America.

Cebr estimates that direct spending associated with in-person attendance could reach approximately $14.1 billion, with this figure encompassing expenditure by both domestic and international attendees.

Given the size of the domestic markets in the United States, Mexico, and Canada alongside elevated travel costs and some concerns over US border policies a large share of World Cup attendees are expected to consist of domestic fans, often travelling within their own countries. This distinguishes the current tournament from most previous editions of the World Cup, which have typically relied more heavily on international attendees to fill stadiums.

Since international visitors tend to spend more than domestic attendees, the spending of both groups will likely balance out in aggregate, bringing similar contributions to total expenditure. For instance, domestic fans are more likely to drive than fly and to stay with friends and family, rather than in paid accommodation, shielding them from some though of course not all of the tournament's largest expenses.

Taken together, these dynamics underpin our estimate of $14.1 billion in spending. This figure is contingent on relatively strong attendance levels across the expanded 104-match format. Whether this holds is uncertain.While demand for high-profile fixtures is expected to be strong, there have already been indications that hotel bookings and ticket sales for some matches may be softer than initially anticipated, introducing a degree of risk that stadiums fall short of full capacity.

The economics of sports tournaments of course do not stop at direct consumer expenditure. Indirect spending, inward investment, and wider effects will add to the footprint of the tournament.

Cebr's track record in the space also covers the more abstract concept of the 'insurable value' of national teams, which covers the net present value of players' expected earnings during their careers. In previous research for Lloyd's, the ranking of participating teams by insurable value has correctly predicted the winner of two of the last three World Cups.

In updating this analysis for 2026, England and France are amongst the teams with the highest insurable values. England's position largely reflects the wage premium associated with the Premier League, which commands far more commercial appeal than other national leagues. Meanwhile, France is supported by having a particularly young talent pool, which boosts insurable value given players have more of their careers left to underwrite.

Whichever nation lifts the trophy, the broader economic opportunity is clear. The 2026 World Cup is poised to deliver a direct $14.1 billion boost to consumer spending across North America, and this figure tells only part of the story. The effects will extend well beyond ticket holders and travelling fans. Bars, restaurants, and hospitality venues will see a surge in trade from fans watching across the world, broadcasters and sponsors will benefit from global audiences, and participating nations will see their own consumer spending supported by the broader commercial activity the tournament generates. As a result, the full economic footprint of the 2026 World Cup is likely to be considerably larger than our headline spending figure suggests.