Forecast: Home equity rates, the Fed and what’s next for home equity borrowing

By Linda Bell

Bankrate.com (TNS)

The Federal Reserve just did something it hadn’t yet done in 2025: It lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate.

While the markets largely expected September’s quarter-point rate cut, it does mark the beginning of a potential easing cycle after months of holding rates steady. That matters for homeowners because the Fed’s decisions ripple through to home equity loan and HELOC rates, shaping how expensive (or affordable) it is to tap into the value of your home.

The natural questions now are: How much rate relief can home equity borrowers actually expect? And how might that impact the appetite for borrowing?

Fed tightening to improve home equity rates

If you’ve got a HELOC, you know that the Fed’s moves matter. HELOCs have variable rates tied directly to the prime rate, which typically moves almost in lockstep with the Fed’s benchmark rate. In contrast, fixedrate home equity loan rates are less sensitive to Fed moves, although new borrowers may see their rates gradually shift as well.

September’s recent cut is already showing up in the numbers. In the week of September 24, both HELOCs and home equity loans recorded some of their most significant drops of the year, falling to 7.88% and 8.19%, respectively, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. On the heels of last year’s tightening, rates are poised to continue falling, with the Fed signaling more rate reductions to come.

"Incorporating the full point of cuts the Fed made last year, plus the recent quarterpoint cut and the half-point of additional (quarter point) cuts forecast by the end of the year (at the October and December meetings), that’s 175 basis points in total cuts from September 2024 through December 2025, most likely," says Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.

That means by year’s end, average HELOC rates could land around 7.3%. Fixed-rate home equity loans may ease more slowly and settle around 7.9%. Not cheap money, but a notable improvement from the 10%-plus highs borrowers faced at the beginning of 2024.

Home equity rate relief impact

Although rates may trend lower this year, the reality is that it will take some time for a drop in home equity rates to reach borrowers’ wallets. "While there is certainly cause to rejoice with the Fed cutting rates, it will take many rate cuts of 0.25% for consumers to start really noticing and feeling the improvement in their monthly payments," says Sarah DeFlorio, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage, a real estate company based in Connecticut.

In other words, it’s a series of interest rate cuts, and not just a single one, that will make the most difference. "If HELOC rates fall to the low 6% range by late 2026, it will lower the monthly payment needed to withdraw $50,000 in equity by another $50, about 17% less than today’s levels," notes Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality.

While that’s meaningful, perspective also matters. "We’re not going back to 3% to 4% HELOCs anytime soon, but this is becoming a less expensive source of funds, which could open up some more usage for home improvements, debt consolidation, etc.," says Rossman.

Teaser rate offers will be subdued

In falling interest rate environments, lenders often roll out promotional HELOC rate offers to capitalize on rising consumer demand. However, the timing of the Fed cuts at the end of the year could put a damper on those deals.

"Marketing spend is typically front-loaded for the spring lending season, and right at that time, we saw probably the biggest number on record of the usage of promotional rates," says Ken Flaherty, senior manager, retail lending at Curinos, a data insights firm based in New York. "In Q4, (lenders) are typically out of spend or don’t have it aligned to the non-seasonal months of home lending, which is typically Q4 and Q1 of every year."

However, due to the potential for additional rate cuts this year, teaser offers can often be a double-edged sword for lenders. While the offers drum up business, the danger is that if lenders choose a promotional rate now, two more rate cuts from now, the standard rate could be even lower than the teaser rate, explains Kinley Hicks, home equity market analyst at Curinos. "It’s finding a balance, because typically these (promo rates) are locked for six to 12 months."

Why equity tapping is likely to rise

Even without aggressive promotions, there are two primary reasons more homeowners could tap into their housing stake.

Although equity growth has moderated, homeowner equity totaled $17.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, or about $307,000 per homeowner, according to Cotality data. That’s the third-highest figure ever. Flaherty notes that following the Fed’s surprise 50-basis-point cut in September of 2024, both home equity utilization and average balances increased.

Additionally, millions of homeowners are "locked in" to 2% to 3% mortgages and are reluctant to sell. Tapping into their equity for renovations or debt consolidation is a way to put that wealth to work without giving up a cheap first mortgage.

The stage has already been set. In the second quarter, home equity lending increased more than 16% from the previous quarter and almost 5% from last year, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. What’s more, ICE reported that homeowners pulled $52 billion in equity from their properties in the second quarter of this year.

As Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at Intercontinental Exchange, puts it, equity extraction "hit our highest level in nearly three years."

Economic wild cards

Of course, nothing is guaranteed. The Fed’s path and that of home equity rates depend on how the economy evolves.

Warning signs are indeed flashing. Inflation still remains a concern, along with a softening job market. At a post-meeting news conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell said, "In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation. When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate."

That means if inflation flares back up, the Fed could slow or even pause its rate cuts, putting a floor under borrowing costs.

How homeowners can prepare

For now, the trend points to gradually lower home equity borrowing costs, especially for HELOCs. Keeping an eye on the Fed’s moves can offer clues to where home equity rates may be headed. For borrowers, the best strategy now is to stay alert and adaptable. Be sure to shop around, as not all lenders price their products the same way.

And whether you need to tap your housing stake for renovations, to consolidate debt, or for a cash cushion, the best course of action is to get professional advice. "A lending specialist can help show you your options," says Flaherty. "Whether it is a HELOC or a home equity loan — or potentially, for some consumers, we could be quickly approaching a scenario where you know a mortgage rate and term cash out is the better solution for you."

Dreamstime/TNS