Flood data paints stark picture of at-risk properties in Mohawk Valley

It's no secret that the region is prone to flooding but the danger it poses may be higher than previously known, according to a group that analyzes flood data.

On Monday, First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group, publicly released risk data on more than 142 million homes and properties across the country, including the Mohawk Valley.

The data is at odds, often extremely so, with data put out by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). First Street said the discrepancy exists because it uses current climate data, maps precipitation as a stand-alone risk, and includes areas where FEMA has not mapped.

COMPARING THE NUMBERS

In Oneida and Herkimer counties, the difference is stark.

According to data provided by First State, there are 101,509 total properties within Oneida County. There are 3,056 properties listed as "at risk" in 2020 by FEMA and 10,874 properties "at risk" listed by First State. Broken down into percentages, 3 percent of the properties in the county are "at risk" currently according to FEMA, while 10.8 percent are "at risk" according to First State, the data shows.

In Herkimer County, there are 40,860 properties, according to First Street's data. There are 2,912 properties listed as "at risk" in 2020 by FEMA and 7,425 properties as "at risk" listed by First State. Broken down into percentages, 7.1 percent of properties in Herkimer County are "at risk" according to FEMA, while 18.2 percent are "at risk" according to First State, the data shows.

Unlike FEMA, First State's data is mapped out for the next 15 and 30 years. In Oneida County the flood risk percentage raises to 10.9 and 11.1 respectively. In Herkimer County, the flood risk percentage raises to 18.3 and 18.5 respectively.

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LOOK BACK AT HALLOWEEN FLOODING COVERAGE

· GALLERY: Flooding rescue in Poland

· FEMA denies individual assistance for Halloween flooding victims

· Gallery updated: Flooding in Oneida, Herkimer counties

· Residents in Oneida, Herkimer counties continue flood recovery

· Whitesboro endures slow recovery from floods; some simply won't recover

· GALLERY: Flood decimated Salisbury roadway

· Digging out, demanding action

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First State officials said the discrepancy in Oneida and Herkimer counties is due to an increase in heavy rainfall that leads to creeks and rivers flooding.

Oneida County Executive Anthony Picente Jr. – who has not viewed First Street's data – said he would not be surprised if FEMA's data was incorrect; pointing to a spiked increase of flooding in the area over the last several years, including the recent Halloween flooding that severely impacted the region.

"I question a lot of FEMA's approach," Picente said. "I don't doubt they have it wrong."

WHITESBORO

Ron Loubier is the president of the Whitesboro Water Warriors, a group assembled shortly after the Halloween floods. The group consists of officials and a handful of residents that dealt with flooding this past October, Loubier said.

Loubier moved into his Wind Place home in Whitesboro in February 2017 and said the location had not experienced a flood before. It did a few months later in July, when Loubier's basement was fully flooded. Floodwaters rose and destroyed the first floor during the Halloween storm, Loubier said.

"It's not a safe place to live in anymore," Loubier said, noting he is able to live in his home, though he has not likely completed all the repairs he should.

Loubier said there are a small handful of homes on his block road that still have foundation damage that has not yet been fixed.

Like it does in Oneida and Herkimer counties, the First Street data shows a higher flooding risk in Whitesboro.

According to the data, there are 5,021 properties in Whitesboro. There are 434 properties listed as "at risk" according to FEMA and 663 listed as "at risk" according to First Street, the data shows. Broken down into percentages, there is an 8.6 percent risk of flooded properties in Whitesboro according to FEMA and a 13.2 percentage according to First Street, the data shows.

Mapped out to 2035 and 2050, the First Street data shows the percentage risk increasing to 13.5 and 13.7 percent respectively.

Whitesboro Mayor Robert Friedlander – who has not seen the First Street data – said he felt the FEMA data was incorrect, pointing to the amount of flooding that happens in his village. He said the village seems to flood every year or every other year.

"I think they try to downplay it," Friedlander said of FEMA.

NEW HARTFORD

Like Whitesboro, the neighboring town of New Hartford was hard hit by the Halloween storm, with flooding occurring in the Chadwicks and New York Mills sections of town.

New Hartford Town Supervisor Paul Miscione said flooding is common for certain parts of the town, including Chadwicks and New York Mills. Miscione said these two sections of the town flood often while the rest of the town typically does not. This leads him to believe flood risk numbers may be even higher for the area than even what First Street proposes.

"They're the ones that get flooded the most," Miscione said of Chadwicks and the New Hartford portion of New York Mills. "It's so bad. It's devastation. It's like a third-world country over there."

According to the First Street data, there are 6,773 properties in New Hartford. The data shows 51 properties "at risk" according to FEMA and 687 properties "at risk" according to First Street. Broken down to percentages, there is currently a 0.8 percent chance of properties "at risk" according to FEMA and a 10.1 percent "at risk" for properties for First State, according to the data.

The risk rises slowly into 2035 and 2050, at 10.2 and 10.3 respectively.

DOLGEVILLE

Amber Kraszewski, who resides in the village of Dolgeville, is looking at the flooding problem from two angles – as a North Main Street home and property owner who was affected by last year's flooding and as a village trustee who is trying to help find a way to have nine houses along the creek side demolished.

Those houses were condemned following the Halloween 2019 storm, which dumped up to 5 inches of rain in some areas, and the owners lack the means to demolish them, she said.

"I had rental property there and I live on that street. It looks like a train wreck," she said. "There's sand everywhere and it smells so bad nobody wants to walk down there."

She feels fortunate that while the basement of her rental house flooded -- with some water getting to the first-floor level -- the property was not destroyed. Others were not so lucky. "There were (only) two from that whole side of the street that were not condemned," said Kraszewski. Only a few had insurance.

She said the village has been trying to work with FEMA and the Natural Resources Conservation Service to have the nine houses torn down and have the owners paid fair market value for them. "They want to take the berm out to allow the water to run there," she said.

Kraszewski fears that would put more houses in danger of being flooded.

She says the buildup of rocks and debris in the creek also adds to the flood risk, but the state Department of Environmental Conservation will not allow the village to go into the waterway to maintain it.

The First Street data for the Dolgeville area shows a higher number of properties at risk of flooding than does the FEMA data. Of the 2,521 properties, FEMA shows 232 "at risk" while First Street shows 386 "at risk" of flooding. That's a 9.2 percent risk, according to FEMA and a 15.3 percent risk, according to First Street.

First Street's data projects the flood risk in Dolgeville will rise to 18.3 percent by 2035 and 18.5 percent by 2050.

MIDDLEVILLE

Roger Hensley, whose Kanata Street home was damaged in the Halloween flood, said recovery there is slow, although he is able to live in his house.

Hensley said releasing water from the dam at the Hinckley Reservoir sent more water down than the West Canada Creek could handle.

"I don't care if it floods my backyard," he said. Having his house flooded was another matter.

"When there's a heavy rain, there's nowhere for the water to go," he said. Middleville was hit with flooding in 2006, 2011, 2013 and in the Halloween flood, Hensley pointed out. "Per capita, I think Middleville had more damage than anybody."

According to the data for the Middleville area, there are 438 properties and FEMA lists 11 "at risk" of flooding, compared with 84 listed "at risk" according to the First Street data. Broken into percentages, there is a 2.5 percent risk, according to FEMA and a 19.2 percent risk, according to First Street.

First Street shows the flood risk in the Middleville area rising slightly to 19.4 percent by 2050.

FRANKFORT

Frankfort Mayor Richard Adams was not familiar with FEMA's flood risk projection figures, but he is very aware of the stream bank erosion in Moyer Creek along Litchfield Street that needs to be addressed.

At the Hilltop Road entrance, the bank was on the brink of failure the night of the Halloween storm.

"If it had failed, there would have been a lot of water going right through the village," Adams said.

Emergency crews evacuated people from residences along the creek.

Fire Chief Eric Conigliaro said this was the first time he could recall having to evacuate all along Litchfield Street and some nearby streets as well. Neighboring fire departments came to assist and the American Red Cross set up a shelter at Frankfort-Schuyler Central School.

"You can't force people out," Conigliaro said, "but if something happens, there's no guarantee we'd be able to get to them. They're staying at their own risk."

He added, "I don't ever want to relive that night."

A wider area was evacuated when FEMA representatives and engineers arrived in the morning and saw the extent of the damage.

While the state made emergency repairs, Conigliaro is concerned about the condition of the wall and of the bank along the Frankfort Gorge. "If we had another 3-inch rainfall we'd be in the same situation; the damage is done."

The village has requested help from FEMA to repair the infrastructure and replace the Hilltop Bridge. Embankment repairs will also be made, Adams said.

The Main Street Bridge, which has also caused flooding problems in the past, is scheduled for replacement because its opening is not wide enough for the water that flows through the creek.

The First Street data shows a higher risk than the FEMA data of flooding in the Frankfort area. Of the 4,287 properties there FEMA lists 377 "at risk" of flooding, compared with 1,007 listed "at risk" according to the First Street data. That amounts to an 8.8 percent risk, according to FEMA and a 23.5 percent risk, according to First Street.

First Street's projections for Frankfort show a slight rise in risk to 23.7 percent in 2035 and 23.8 percent by 2050.

MOHAWK

Superintendent of Public Works Mike Shedd was not familiar with the FEMA numbers, but is encouraged by the flood mitigation projects undertaken so far, including expanding the flood plain along Fulmer Creek.

Construction of a new municipal electric substation should be finished by the end of December. The substation was damaged in the 2013 flood and power to the village was knocked out for three days until emergency repairs could be made.

"It's been a long road and we still hold our breath when it rains," said Shedd, adding that he will feel more confident when the substation work is finished. "We just pray Mother Nature doesn't drop anything on us."

The First Street data shows a higher risk than the FEMA data of flooding in the Mohawk area. According to the data, there are 2,945 properties in the area, based on zip code, and FEMA lists 181 "at risk" of flooding, compared with 438 "at risk" according to the First Street data. Broken into percentages, there is a 6.1 percent risk, according to FEMA and a 14.9 percent risk, according to First Street.

First Street projects that the area's flood risk could slightly to 15 percent by 2035 and 15.1 percent by 2050.

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