External Reserves Jump to $48.37bn, Gain $2.47bn in 1 Month

Source: Leadership

Nigeria's external buffers strengthened further in February 2026 as its foreign reserves climbed sharply to $48.37 billion, highlighting sustained inflows and improved liquidity conditions in the economy.

Latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) show that gross external reserves rose from $45.90 billion recorded on January 13, 2026 to $48.37 billion as of February 16, 2026.

This represents a $2.47 billion increase within one month, translating to a 5.4 per cent rise over the period.

The accretion extends a recovery cycle that began in the second half of 2025, when the country's reserves rebounded strongly from around $38 billion levels.

After dipping to $37.21 billion in June 2025, reserves rose to $39.36 billion in July and climbed further to $41.31 billion in August.

The upward trajectory was sustained through the rest of the year, reaching $42.35 billion in September, $43.20 billion in October and $44.67 billion in November.

By the end of December 2025, the reserves stood at $45.50 billion, before advancing to $46.28 billion in January 2026 and surging further in February.

On a year-on-year basis, the reserve stock has recorded significant growth. From about $40.88 billion at the end of December 2024, the reserves have risen to approximately $48.37 billion, reflecting an increase of nearly $7.49 billion, or about 18.3 per cent, over the period.

At over $48 billion, the reserves position provides stronger import cover and enhances the country's capacity to defend the naira amid global financial volatility and commodity price swings.

It also signals improved external resilience as policymakers continue efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market and anchor macroeconomic stability.

Several factors have been said to have fueled this reserve accumulation, including stronger-than-expected oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and steady OPEC+ output quotas. They have boosted Nigeria's crude export earnings--its primary forex source, accounting for over 80 per cent of export revenues.

Also, remittances from the Nigerian diaspora, which hit record highs of over $25 billion in 2025, have also played a pivotal role, supported by a unified exchange rate regime introduced in mid-2023 to curb arbitrage and attract inflows.

Additionally, multilateral inflows have contributed significantly.

The CBN's recent $2.5 billion drawdown from the International Monetary Fund's Rapid Financing Instrument in late 2025, alongside disbursements from World Bank facilities and Eurobond issuances totaling $3.3 billion in January 2026, have padded reserves. Diaspora bond sales and increased foreign portfolio investments into Nigerian Treasury bills, lured by attractive yields above 20 per cent, have further bolstered liquidity.

At over $48 billion, the reserves position provides stronger import cover--now exceeding 14 months of goods imports based on recent trade data--and enhances the country's capacity to defend the naira amid global financial volatility and commodity price swings.

This marks a stark improvement from mid-2025 levels, when reserves covered just eight months of imports, fueling naira depreciation pressures that saw the currency weaken beyond N1,600 per dollar.

The buildup also signals improved external resilience as policymakers under CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso continue efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market and anchor macroeconomic stability.

Recent measures, including tighter monetary policy with the benchmark interest rate at 27.5 per cent and enhanced forex auction transparency, have restored investor confidence, evidenced by a 15 per cent rise in foreign inflows to the banking sector in Q1 2026.

Analysts view the trend positively but caution that sustaining it hinges on addressing structural challenges like oil theft, which curbed production to 1.3 million barrels per day in early 2026, and fiscal reforms to boost non-oil revenues.

Analysts believe that with reserves now at a three-year high, Nigeria is better positioned to navigate potential headwinds from U.S. rate cuts and fluctuating Brent crude prices hovering around $80 per barrel.