EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Outlook Ahead of Powell Statement – 15 May 2025

Bullish view

-- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1300.
-- Add a stop-loss at 1.1090.
-- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view

-- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0900.
-- Add a stop-loss at 1.1300.

The EUR/USD pair has pulled back in the past two weeks, falling from the year-to-date high of 1.1572 to the current 1.1175. This pullback happened amid the ongoing European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve divergence. It also happened as the US and the EU continued deliberating on ending the trade war.

European GDP data and Jerome Powell statement

The EUR/USD pair will be in the spotlight on Thursday as the Eurostat publishes the second estimate of the bloc’s first quarter GDP data. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to reveal that the economy expanded by 0.4% in Q1 after growing by 0.2% in the previous quarter. The annual GDP rate is expected to be at 1.2%.

Eurostat will also publish the latest employment and industrial production numbers from the bloc. In addition to these numbers, a few ECB officials like Luis de Guindos and Piero Cipollone will share their thoughts on the next action. Some ECB officials have supported more rate cuts, while others suggest holding rates steady.

The EUR/USD pair will also react to the upcoming statement by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair. This will be a closely-watched statement because it comes a week after the Fed left interest rates unchanged.

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It also comes a few days after the US released encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The report showed that the headline CPI dropped from 2.4%, while the core CPI figure remained unchanged at 2.8%.

The EUR/USD pair will also react to some important economic numbers from the United States. For example, the Commerce Department will release the latest retail sales data, which will provide more information on consumer spending. The other data will be on manufacturing and industrial production.

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EUR/USD technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has been in a slow downtrend in the past few weeks. It has fallen from a high of 1.1572 in April to the current 1.1170.

The pair has moved below the important resistance level at 1.1210, the highest swing in September last year. On the positive side, it has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. It has also formed a cup and handle pattern.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair will likely resume the uptrend, and possibly retest the next key resistance level at 1.1300. A move below the 50-day moving average at 1.1090 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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Original Source DailyForex.com provides daily fundamental and technical analysis and signals for those looking to trade based on trends in the currency markets.