EUR/USD Analysis: Selling Pressure Mounts—Will We See 1.1500 Soon? – 20 January 2026

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

-- Overall Trend: Bearish.
-- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1580 – 1.1520 – 1.1440.
-- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1680 – 1.1740 – 1.1800.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:

-- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1560 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1470.
-- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Concerns regarding Greenland have dominated Euro trading against other major currencies. This follows recent market anxiety over the future of U.S. Federal Reserve policies. According to performance data from trusted trading platforms, the EUR/USD price plummeted at the start of the trading week to the support level of 1.1576—the pair's lowest level in nearly two months—before quickly rebounding to settle around the 1.1645 resistance level at the time of writing.

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From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD bias remains bearish. It could quickly drop toward the psychological support level of 1.1500 in the coming days if fears of a persistent conflict between the U.S. and Europe intensify, especially following mutual threats of imposing tariffs. The 14-day RSI is reading around 45, supporting "bear" control, while the MACD signal lines remain steadily downward. Conversely, the psychological resistance at 1.1800 remains the key target to confirm a shift to a bullish trend.

For economic calender today, The euro's price will be affected today by the release of the German Producer Price Index (PPI) at 9:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the Eurozone current account figures at 11:00 AM Egypt time. An hour later, the German ZEW index will be released. No major economic releases are expected from the US.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate and the Future of Fed Policies

The EUR/USD exchange rate has retreated from its recent highs, falling back toward 1.16 as investors grow cautious about the timing and scale of Fed interest rate cuts. While some banks still see room for the Euro to rise in the medium term, strong U.S. economic data and a strengthening Dollar have capped these gains for now. Increasingly, markets are focused on the Fed's credibility and whether U.S. rates could remain high well into 2026.

EUR/USD Forecast for the Coming Days

In this regard, RBC Capital Markets expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to strengthen in 2026, but has lowered its year-end forecast to 1.20 from 1.24, now anticipating it will reach that level by the end of 2024. However, after a slight initial shift, ING still supports a rise to 1.22 by the end of 2026, driven by continued US interest rate hikes.

Overall, markets anticipate two US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Crédit Agricole expects the euro to depreciate further as the Fed resists further rate cuts: “We still expect interest rates to remain unchanged in January. After that, our current baseline forecast suggests the pause will extend throughout 2026, subject to the stability of the labor market in upcoming reports. Weaker-than-expected data would increase the risk of a shorter pause and/or greater monetary easing than we currently anticipate.”

Meanwhile, the independence of the US Federal Reserve will remain a pivotal issue for currency exchange rates.

Earlier this week, the Justice Department issued subpoenas against the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for alleged misconduct related to renovations at the Fed headquarters. Powell strongly rejected the move and defended the bank. MUFG commented on the development, stating, “The continued attacks on the Fed’s independence, in response to President Trump’s desire to lower interest rates, pose a downside risk to the US dollar and support our expectations of a decline.” The bank added, “However, this could backfire on President Trump if Fed officials maintain their stance and keep US interest rates unchanged, challenging the Fed’s continued independence in setting monetary policy.”

RBC Bank, for its part, still anticipates net losses for the dollar against the euro for three reasons: lower interest rates between the two countries, increased hedging against US assets, and a shift towards European assets and stronger growth in the Eurozone. RBC remains cautious about the potential for significant gains.

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Trading advice:

We advise waiting for upcoming selling pressure on the EUR/USD. Obvioulsy, this will allow for "Buy" positions from the lowest possible prices. However, we strongly advise against over-leveraging or taking unnecessary risks.

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