Early Votes Spike Hints Of Record Turnout In Texas
That would bury the turnout of just under 9 million in the 2016 presidential election and perhaps help pull
"Obviously we're headed towards record turnout overall," said
Since early voting opened
Those eye-popping numbers being reported daily to the
Factors for the surge include wanting to avoid crowded polling stations
Tom Bonier, the CEO of the
For one, Bonier said, of the more than 8 million people who've voted early in
The numbers are headed in the opposition direction for older voters, a key
Finally, he said, "There's a huge surge in college-educated white voters where as white non-college has dropped by 5.5%. That's a huge drop-off."
"That gives me hope for my candidates, at least," Ryan said. "The other thing is that we see all these surveys showing its neck-and-neck between
As of Thursday morning, just under half of all registered voters in
Since 2016 Texas has seen an increase in population that will not be fully measured until the 2020 Census data is released next year. Also,
Voter registration appears to be nearly all over
Much of rural
And all of them are seeing dramatic increases in early voting. In the urban counties, turnout hovered around 50% with two days left to vote. Suburban counties like
The influx of new voters remains something of a wildcard. They might not be part of the polling data, which often uses "likely voters" as a benchmark. And they don't have a history of voting in either primary in
"One thing that scares me is there's a whole lot of voters that don't have a primary history that are showing up to vote," Ryan said. "I don't have information about who those people are."
Bonier said it is also somewhat unclear if the the surge in early voting is a true predicter of total turnout, or simply a front-loaded process that will be followed by a minimal turnout of
He said recent
"If Republican voters were waiting until
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