Early Votes Spike Hints Of Record Turnout In Texas

AUSTIN – Texas is shattering early voting records ahead of the Nov. 3 elections leaving some experts to predict a total turnout approaching or even surpassing 12 million.

That would bury the turnout of just under 9 million in the 2016 presidential election and perhaps help pull Texas out of the nation's cellar when it comes to voter participation.

"Obviously we're headed towards record turnout overall," said Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant who operates a data-crunching company that can identify the demographic characteristics of people voting in Texas elections. "I think we're heading to 11, maybe 12 million people voting."

Since early voting opened Oct. 13 and closes Friday, more than, nearly 8.2 million of Texas' 6,955,519 registered voters had cast ballots -- about 7.26 million in person and around 900,000 by mail or drop off.

Those eye-popping numbers being reported daily to the Texas Secretary of State's Office leading up to Nov. 3 have launched a flood of activity by operatives and analysts from both parties seeking a hint as to what to expect once the counting begins.

Factors for the surge include wanting to avoid crowded polling stations Election Day during the coronavirus pandemic to enthusiasm to vote either for or against one of the candidates for president.

Tom Bonier, the CEO of the Washington, D.C., Democrat-aligned analytics firm of TargetSmart, said while his reading of Texas early voting trend shows 1 million more voters with Republican characteristics casting ballots than voters seemingly aligned with Democrats, he sees ample evidence the state is in play this cycle.

For one, Bonier said, of the more than 8 million people who've voted early in Texas through Wednesday, 2 million of them did not vote in 2016. Another plus for Democrats, Bonier said, is that in 2016, voters under 40 accounted for 22% of the total early vote. This cycle, the number tops 28%.

The numbers are headed in the opposition direction for older voters, a key GOP constituency. Four years ago, voters over 50 made up more than 57% of the early vote, but TargetSmart estimates. In 2020, that share dropped to around 51%.

Finally, he said, "There's a huge surge in college-educated white voters where as white non-college has dropped by 5.5%. That's a huge drop-off."

Republicans are seeking to extend their 40-year winning streak in presidential elections in Texas. Ryan said the party can take heart in that the number of people who have voted in past Republican primaries is far outpacing that of Democratic primary voters.

"That gives me hope for my candidates, at least," Ryan said. "The other thing is that we see all these surveys showing its neck-and-neck between President Trump and (former) Vice President Biden, but Sen. (John) Cornyn has a 6 or 7 point lead" over Democrat MJ Hegar.

As of Thursday morning, just under half of all registered voters in Texas had cast ballots early or by mail. Total turnout in 2016 was 59% of registered voters. However, when the number of all eligible voters was factored in, turnout plummeted to just 51%. That put Texas at 47 among the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Since 2016 Texas has seen an increase in population that will not be fully measured until the 2020 Census data is released next year. Also, Texas added 1.8 million people to the voter registration rolls, and both parties take at least some credit for the new signups.

Voter registration appears to be nearly all over Texas, according to statistics compiled by the Secretary of State's Office. In Harris County, the state's largest, the registration rolls swelled by about 280,000. In both Dallas and Tarrant counties, the increase was more than 100,000.

El Paso and Nueces counties each saw increases of more than 70,000 registered voters.

Much of rural Texas also increases in registration. Taylor, Tom Green and Wichita counties each saw jumps of about 5,000 new voters.

And all of them are seeing dramatic increases in early voting. In the urban counties, turnout hovered around 50% with two days left to vote. Suburban counties like Denton and Collin near Dallas-Fort Worth, and Williamson and Montgomery, near Austin and Houston respectively, turnout soared past 60% by midweek.

The influx of new voters remains something of a wildcard. They might not be part of the polling data, which often uses "likely voters" as a benchmark. And they don't have a history of voting in either primary in Texas.

"One thing that scares me is there's a whole lot of voters that don't have a primary history that are showing up to vote," Ryan said. "I don't have information about who those people are."

Bonier said it is also somewhat unclear if the the surge in early voting is a true predicter of total turnout, or simply a front-loaded process that will be followed by a minimal turnout of Election Day.

He said recent Texas history suggests Democratic voters show up in droves early, then are swamped by an election day vote that's overwhelmingly Republican. But this time, both parties are seeing their voters casting early ballots, he said.

"If Republican voters were waiting until Election Day, that would be one thing," Bonier said. "But Republican voters aren't waiting until Election Day. Millions of Republicans have already voted."

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at jmoritz@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo.