Could GOP suffer long-term political damage from the shutdown?

Even before the latest federal government shutdown began, pundits were speculating over which party was the more responsible for the impasse and which would be the political beneficiary.

Initial polls indicate that voters primarily blame President Donald Trump and the Republicans. And the ways that Trump and the GOP are using the shutdown to pursue their ideological goals may well ensure they also suffer long-term political damage.

They include Trump's encouragement of Budget Director Russell Vought's continuing campaign to slash politically popular environmental and infrastructure programs from what the president labeled "Democrat agencies" and continuing congressional GOP resistance to extending the tax credits helping millions of Americans pay their health insurance costs.

To be fair, those tax credits are not directly at stake in the impasse over extending government funding. But the Democrats believe with some justification that resisting short-term federal funding now may be their best leverage to ensure their extension, especially since insurance companies have already started to announce big premium increases.

Most congressional Republicans remain cool at best to any steps that would bolster Obamacare, the government-sponsored health program that has been their prime political target for the past 15 years. In fact, Speaker Mike Johnson and other key House Republicans have said they oppose extending the tax credits. Without their acquiescence, extending them later this year may prove impossible, though polls show they're supported by an overwhelming majority of Americans – including most Republicans.

A recent nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation Poll showed that more than three in four adults favored extending the tax credits, including nine of every 10 Democrats, eight in 10 independents and six in 10 Republicans.

For Democrats, this may be a win-win situation. Either they will succeed in extending the Obamacare tax credits – or Republicans will pay the political price in next year's congressional elections for failing to do so.

Understandably, GOP lawmakers are not eager to talk about this aspect of the fight, though a handful of House Republicans have publicly urged extending the tax credits, including a prominent conservative, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Instead, GOP leaders have focused on the Democratic effort to reverse some of the massive Medicaid cuts that were enacted as part of Trump's unpopular "Big Beautiful Bill." Johnson says they are trying to "reinstate free healthcare for illegal aliens paid by American taxpayers."

That is simply not true. Illegal immigrants are not eligible for Medicaid, nor would they be if the Democrats succeed. What's involved here is an aspect of the program that provides Medicaid reimbursements to hospitals that provide emergency aid to certain groups of illegal immigrants as if they were Medicaid eligible.

Meanwhile, Trump and Vought may be on their way to broadening the GOP's long-term self-inflicted political damage from the impasse.

After Trump vowed to make Democrats suffer from the shutdown, the Department of Transportation announced it was withholding funds for major approved transportation projects in the New York and Chicago areas because the impasse was delaying its review of possible diversity, equity and inclusion requirements in construction contracts.

The department blamed the New Yorkers who are the two top congressional Democrats, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, for the suspension on grounds the shutdown made it impossible to complete the diversity review.

The review suggested again that Administration policy assumes that, anytime a minority person or company got a job or contract, it constituted illegal affirmative action, though the Supreme Court only banned that practice in higher education admissions.

The suspended projects included the $15 billion rail tunnel being built under the Hudson River between New York's Pennsylvania Station and New Jersey, a project that former President Joe Biden reinstated after Trump pulled its funding in his first term.

The suspension could have an early political impact when New Jersey voters pick their next governor in November.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy said it would cancel some $7.5 billion for energy projects approved during the Biden administration in their latest moves to reduce use of alternative fuels. Most are in Democratic-leaning states, but some are in GOP-held swing districts.

The canceled projects, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times, included "major upgrades to electrical grids in California, Minnesota and Oregon, efforts to reduce methane leaks from oil and gas operations in Colorado, and large hubs to produce clean-burning hydrogen fuels in California and the Pacific Northwest."

A department news release said it determined the projects "did not adequately advance the nation's energy needs, were not economically viable and would not provide a positive return on investment of taxpayer dollars."

Earlier, in a post on X, Vought signaled the ideological aspect of the cuts, declaring, "Nearly $6 billion in Green New Scam Funding to fuel the Left's climate agenda is being canceled."

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is still trying to win over the eight Democrats needed to enact the House-passed bill extending funding until Nov. 21, a week before Thanksgiving.

An obvious incentive would be a firm promise to discuss extending the Obamacare tax credits. Trump said Monday he would be "happy to work with the Democrats" on the issue – before adding the caveat that they must "first" reopen the government.

But congressional GOP leaders did not endorse his comments, and the Democrats dismissed it as insufficient to attract their support.

After all, the polls show they are winning.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him via email at carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com.