Billionaire fund manager Griffin predicts Fed rate cuts in 2024
Hedge fund manager
His investing success goes back at least to his college days at Harvard, where he made successful stock and convertible bond plays. Griffin, 55, is now worth
He also founded
So when Griffin talks, people listen, and he had some things to say about
What's ahead for the
At the beginning of the year, futures traders anticipated six interest-rate cuts from the
But now that inflation has proven to be sticky and the economy has remained strong, The CME FedWatch tool points to only two rate reductions in 2024.
The last forecast from Fed officials came in March when the median prediction was for three rate cuts this year. That number could well go down in the central bank's June forecast.
Related: Ex-Treasury official unveils startling interest rate outlook
Some economists, notably
And Harvard economist
Interest rates are vitally important to individuals, of course. Higher rates mean higher income payouts from savings accounts, money-market funds, and bonds. But they also mean higher payments for mortgage, credit card, auto, student, and general loans.
Griffin has been saying for the past couple of months that the Fed was right to leave rates at their elevated level. The central bank hasn't changed rates since it increased them last July, capping 11 rate hikes in a row.
"Wage growth is sticky, core inflation is sticky, de-globalization is happening — that takes away from the constant deflationary trend … for most of our adult lifetime," Griffin said at the
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He projects a rate cut in September or December but said it's not a sure thing. "There is still a question of will inflation actually decelerate enough by then."
Investment opportunities in bonds
If Griffin is right that the Fed will be cautious about cutting rates. Now could be an ideal time to buy bonds, which carry their highest yields in 15 years. They also complement your stock portfolio, providing diversification.
"What owning bonds does is it gives you the positioning for a scenario where the economy goes into recession and risk is off," i.e., stocks fall, said
"In typical recessions, equities fall maybe up to 30%... That's where bonds come into play as a diversifier to equities, but also producing very respectable income today."
Related: Should you buy bonds now? Here's what Vanguard thinks
Stocks historically outperform bonds, but if Griffin proves correct that the Fed won't lower rates until September or December, you may have plenty of time to buy bonds with attractive yields.
Acquiring Treasuries and/or investment-grade corporate bonds (those that are unlikely to default) may provide a good, safe entry into the bond market.
The five-year Treasury yielded 4.47% Tuesday, and a five-year single-A-minus
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